5 ms·

Eh, after Brexit my money is on Sinn Fein reuniting the Irish motherland if they don't cock it up. The English and Tory government have made it abundantly clear

Eh, after Brexit my money is on Sinn Fein reuniting the Irish motherland if they don't cock it up. The English and Tory government have made it abundantly clear that no one matters outside of England or especially Downing St.

LAC-Tech 4y ago
Did you mean to respond to another post?
- grey-area 4y ago
  I think they’re saying more than half of the population now believes it shouldn’t exist.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
andi999 4y ago
If they play their cards well.
pyuser583 4y ago
My understanding is that the Irish motherland has always been wary of outright reunification. If it’s going to be shitshow, the Irish government would rather it be the UK’s shitshow. They’re also a bit leery about having the DUP as a political party. Most of the tension comes from groups in Belfast, not Dublin.
- barry-cotter 4y ago
  > My understanding is that the Irish motherland has always been wary of outright reunification. If it’s going to be shitshow, the Irish government would rather it be the UK’s shitshow. The government and people of Ireland are not the same. The government may have intense reservations about taking on a place guaranteed to need huge subsidies for decades at best. Doesn’t mean the people won’t vote for unification. More’s the pity.
  - daedalus_f 4y ago
    Just to support your point, currently the Northern Ireland fiscal balance runs at a deficit of £10 billion per annum and has run a deficit since the Great Depression. [1] https://factcheckni.org/topics/economy/how-dependent-is-stormont-on-westminster-subvention/ https://factcheckni.org/topics/economy/how-dependent-is-stor...
    - smcl 4y ago
      Is running a deficit not the norm in Europe?
    - anonymousDan 4y ago
      Which is ironic given it was historically the wealthiest part of Ireland pre-partition. If unification were to happen my money would be on it becoming much wealthier (module some kind of troubles 2.0 not kicking off - a big if!). Even if there was no reunification, I think they could be in a really strong position economically if they were to just accept the current NI protocol agreement. They would be in a very advantageous position with access to both the EU and UK markets. Maybe that is what the brexiteers are worried about as any improvement relative to the rest of the UK would provide concrete evidence of the economic impact of brexit. Of course it could go the other way!
- skissane 4y ago
  I wonder why nobody seems to have ever taken the condominium solution seriously? In a condominium, Northern Ireland would become a joint territory of both the UK and the Republic of Ireland. It would be institutionally complex, but I can't see why it couldn't be made to work in practice, if the constitutional decision was made to implement it. It would be similar in some ways to Andorra – just as Andorra has two joint heads of state (the Catholic Bishop of Urgell in Spain, and the President of France), Northern Ireland would have two joint heads of state (the President of Ireland and the King/Queen of the UK). I doubt they'd call them "Co-Princes" though, as Andorra does–too mediaeval-sounding. And, unlike Andorra, I'm not talking about Northern Ireland being an independent sovereign state – it would still be a subnational unit, just a subnational unit belonging to two sovereign states simultaneously. While such arrangements are quite rare, they are allowed under international law, and have existed in the past. A notable example is Vanuatu, which prior to independence in 1980, was a joint British-French territory (New Hebrides). However, New Hebrides is in some ways a bad example - pre-independence it had two separate governments, one British and one French, with immensely inefficient duplication–two separate police forces, two separate prison systems; even two separate immigration departments–if the British one refused you a visa, you could always have another go with the French one. Initially, the only shared institution was the Joint Court, with three judges–one British, one French, and a third neutral judge to act as a tie-breaker, appointed by the King of Spain. In the later years, they introduced a third joint British-French government, and transferred some powers to it-but the separate British and French governments still remained, and continued their inefficient duplication right up to independence. If there were ever a Northern Ireland condominium, I would expect something far more streamlined, in which Ireland and the UK appoint a joint administration in Belfast to run non-devolved matters, to which the current powers of the UK ministers would be transferred, while the existing devolved institutions would continue to exist under that joint administration's supervision. The Irish and UK national Parliaments would each separately have the power to disallow secondary legislation made by the joint administration, and primary legislation in non-devolved matters would be proposed by the joint administration, and then only enter into force once both national Parliaments had separately (and identically) enacted it. Another major difference is that New Hebrides was a colonial situation, in which the indigenous population were denied political power – and, as was common in European colonialism, even the citizens of the colonial powers found themselves denied in the colonies political rights they would have had in they'd remained in the mother country. I think a solution for a Northern Ireland condominium could be for Northern Irish MPs to be members of both the Dáil Éireann and the House of Commons simultaneously. They could also play a special role in providing democratic accountability to the joint administration, through a "Northern Ireland Grand Committee" (and possibly subcommittees thereof) which would simultaneously be a committee of both national Parliaments (all its members being simultaneously members of both). And the final court of appeal for Northern Ireland would have an equal number of judges appointed by each national Supreme Court, from among their own members – maybe with (like the Joint Court of New Hebrides) a Chief Justice being appointed from a third country – these days, rather than turning to a third country's monarchy to appoint a neutral arbiter, you might give that power to the Secretary-General of an international organisation, such as the Permanent Court of Arbitration, or the Council of Europe. Probably never going to happen – I expect the status quo to endure for a few more decades, followed by eventual Irish reunification – but a condominium is an interesting idea to ponder.
- patrickk 4y ago
  > My understanding is that the Irish motherland has always been wary of outright reunification. Yes, there is a lot of concern in the ROI about how the Irish state would fund everything, especially if it would be necessary to deploy military. Ireland has a minuscule military (neutral, non-NATO etc), and obviously is a much smaller economy than GB. However, there is talk that the EU would support reunification. > They’re also a bit leery about having the DUP as a political party. Exactly. As I understand it, the DUP would have a larger influence the the Dail (Irish parliament) of the theoretical reunified Ireland, than they do in Westminster. Since they are a reactionary, conservative party, which doesn't exist in the ROI today, it's certainly a concern. The attitudes and situation has changed a lot in recent years, especially because of Brexit. Here's a good read: https://old.reddit.com/r/northernireland/comments/uar1yc/any_other_protestants_having_an_identity_crisis/ https://old.reddit.com/r/northernireland/comments/uar1yc/any...
  - throwaway0a5e 4y ago
    Everyone always makes these sort of economic arguments. In practice they don't really matter when you're talking about a vote/referendum in which the general population gets to vote. People will gladly vote themselves 10% poorer if it lines up with their personal beliefs.
    - pyuser583 4y ago
      West Germany basically destroyed its economy to unify with East Germany.
      - rospaya 4y ago
        That's a bit of a stretch. The West paid a lot of money but also profited.
  - pyuser583 4y ago
    The UK has a first past the post electoral system. Ireland has proportional representation. So a minority party would have more influence.
happymellon 4y ago
As English, this is patently offensive. What makes you say the Tory government has ever implied that England matters at all?
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- throwawaymanbot 4y ago
- formerkrogemp 4y ago
  > As English, this is patently offensive. Oh @happymellon, don't get your crumpets in a twist. The Tories honestly only seem to care about themselves and about England to the extent it helps them remain in power or rich.
paganel 4y ago
As far as I understood it the re-unification costs would fall mostly on the Republic of Ireland and they're not negligible, not sure if the people from inside of the Republic of Ireland would be willing to put that on their expenses tab. I might be wrong, of course, as I'm not from that general geographic area.
- anonymousDan 4y ago
  100% they would vote for reunification, even if it made little sense economically. Anyone who tells you different has spent too much time in the Pale.

LAC-Tech 4y ago

Did you mean to respond to another post?

grey-area 4y ago
I think they’re saying more than half of the population now believes it shouldn’t exist.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]

andi999 4y ago

If they play their cards well.

pyuser583 4y ago

My understanding is that the Irish motherland has always been wary of outright reunification. If it’s going to be shitshow, the Irish government would rather it be the UK’s shitshow. They’re also a bit leery about having the DUP as a political party. Most of the tension comes from groups in Belfast, not Dublin.

barry-cotter 4y ago
> My understanding is that the Irish motherland has always been wary of outright reunification. If it’s going to be shitshow, the Irish government would rather it be the UK’s shitshow. The government and people of Ireland are not the same. The government may have intense reservations about taking on a place guaranteed to need huge subsidies for decades at best. Doesn’t mean the people won’t vote for unification. More’s the pity.
- daedalus_f 4y ago
  Just to support your point, currently the Northern Ireland fiscal balance runs at a deficit of £10 billion per annum and has run a deficit since the Great Depression. [1] https://factcheckni.org/topics/economy/how-dependent-is-stormont-on-westminster-subvention/ https://factcheckni.org/topics/economy/how-dependent-is-stor...
  - smcl 4y ago
    Is running a deficit not the norm in Europe?
  - anonymousDan 4y ago
    Which is ironic given it was historically the wealthiest part of Ireland pre-partition. If unification were to happen my money would be on it becoming much wealthier (module some kind of troubles 2.0 not kicking off - a big if!). Even if there was no reunification, I think they could be in a really strong position economically if they were to just accept the current NI protocol agreement. They would be in a very advantageous position with access to both the EU and UK markets. Maybe that is what the brexiteers are worried about as any improvement relative to the rest of the UK would provide concrete evidence of the economic impact of brexit. Of course it could go the other way!
skissane 4y ago
I wonder why nobody seems to have ever taken the condominium solution seriously? In a condominium, Northern Ireland would become a joint territory of both the UK and the Republic of Ireland. It would be institutionally complex, but I can't see why it couldn't be made to work in practice, if the constitutional decision was made to implement it. It would be similar in some ways to Andorra – just as Andorra has two joint heads of state (the Catholic Bishop of Urgell in Spain, and the President of France), Northern Ireland would have two joint heads of state (the President of Ireland and the King/Queen of the UK). I doubt they'd call them "Co-Princes" though, as Andorra does–too mediaeval-sounding. And, unlike Andorra, I'm not talking about Northern Ireland being an independent sovereign state – it would still be a subnational unit, just a subnational unit belonging to two sovereign states simultaneously. While such arrangements are quite rare, they are allowed under international law, and have existed in the past. A notable example is Vanuatu, which prior to independence in 1980, was a joint British-French territory (New Hebrides). However, New Hebrides is in some ways a bad example - pre-independence it had two separate governments, one British and one French, with immensely inefficient duplication–two separate police forces, two separate prison systems; even two separate immigration departments–if the British one refused you a visa, you could always have another go with the French one. Initially, the only shared institution was the Joint Court, with three judges–one British, one French, and a third neutral judge to act as a tie-breaker, appointed by the King of Spain. In the later years, they introduced a third joint British-French government, and transferred some powers to it-but the separate British and French governments still remained, and continued their inefficient duplication right up to independence. If there were ever a Northern Ireland condominium, I would expect something far more streamlined, in which Ireland and the UK appoint a joint administration in Belfast to run non-devolved matters, to which the current powers of the UK ministers would be transferred, while the existing devolved institutions would continue to exist under that joint administration's supervision. The Irish and UK national Parliaments would each separately have the power to disallow secondary legislation made by the joint administration, and primary legislation in non-devolved matters would be proposed by the joint administration, and then only enter into force once both national Parliaments had separately (and identically) enacted it. Another major difference is that New Hebrides was a colonial situation, in which the indigenous population were denied political power – and, as was common in European colonialism, even the citizens of the colonial powers found themselves denied in the colonies political rights they would have had in they'd remained in the mother country. I think a solution for a Northern Ireland condominium could be for Northern Irish MPs to be members of both the Dáil Éireann and the House of Commons simultaneously. They could also play a special role in providing democratic accountability to the joint administration, through a "Northern Ireland Grand Committee" (and possibly subcommittees thereof) which would simultaneously be a committee of both national Parliaments (all its members being simultaneously members of both). And the final court of appeal for Northern Ireland would have an equal number of judges appointed by each national Supreme Court, from among their own members – maybe with (like the Joint Court of New Hebrides) a Chief Justice being appointed from a third country – these days, rather than turning to a third country's monarchy to appoint a neutral arbiter, you might give that power to the Secretary-General of an international organisation, such as the Permanent Court of Arbitration, or the Council of Europe. Probably never going to happen – I expect the status quo to endure for a few more decades, followed by eventual Irish reunification – but a condominium is an interesting idea to ponder.
patrickk 4y ago
> My understanding is that the Irish motherland has always been wary of outright reunification. Yes, there is a lot of concern in the ROI about how the Irish state would fund everything, especially if it would be necessary to deploy military. Ireland has a minuscule military (neutral, non-NATO etc), and obviously is a much smaller economy than GB. However, there is talk that the EU would support reunification. > They’re also a bit leery about having the DUP as a political party. Exactly. As I understand it, the DUP would have a larger influence the the Dail (Irish parliament) of the theoretical reunified Ireland, than they do in Westminster. Since they are a reactionary, conservative party, which doesn't exist in the ROI today, it's certainly a concern. The attitudes and situation has changed a lot in recent years, especially because of Brexit. Here's a good read: https://old.reddit.com/r/northernireland/comments/uar1yc/any_other_protestants_having_an_identity_crisis/ https://old.reddit.com/r/northernireland/comments/uar1yc/any...
- throwaway0a5e 4y ago
  Everyone always makes these sort of economic arguments. In practice they don't really matter when you're talking about a vote/referendum in which the general population gets to vote. People will gladly vote themselves 10% poorer if it lines up with their personal beliefs.
  - pyuser583 4y ago
    West Germany basically destroyed its economy to unify with East Germany.
    - rospaya 4y ago
      That's a bit of a stretch. The West paid a lot of money but also profited.
- pyuser583 4y ago
  The UK has a first past the post electoral system. Ireland has proportional representation. So a minority party would have more influence.

happymellon 4y ago

As English, this is patently offensive. What makes you say the Tory government has ever implied that England matters at all?

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
throwawaymanbot 4y ago
formerkrogemp 4y ago
> As English, this is patently offensive. Oh @happymellon, don't get your crumpets in a twist. The Tories honestly only seem to care about themselves and about England to the extent it helps them remain in power or rich.

paganel 4y ago

As far as I understood it the re-unification costs would fall mostly on the Republic of Ireland and they're not negligible, not sure if the people from inside of the Republic of Ireland would be willing to put that on their expenses tab. I might be wrong, of course, as I'm not from that general geographic area.

anonymousDan 4y ago
100% they would vote for reunification, even if it made little sense economically. Anyone who tells you different has spent too much time in the Pale.