> It was a gamble. Would Ukraine fold, or not? It doesn't matter if Ukraine folded. Why? Because what happens next? If Russia installs a puppet regime and lea

> It was a gamble. Would Ukraine fold, or not? It doesn't matter if Ukraine folded. Why? Because what happens next? If Russia installs a puppet regime and leaves, how long does that puppet regime last? If Russia stays and maintains a military occupation, it faces the prospect of a decades-long counter-insurgency from a geographically large country with 44 million potential insurgents who are really unified by their hatred of Russians. Post-WW2 insurgencies have had an incredibly high chance of success against even far more numerous and technologically superior occupying forces. It's a bad bet.