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>I mean everything is a bit oversold right now on negative emotions, both in the crypto space and in the stock markets. ...Things have corrected SLIGHTLY from

>I mean everything is a bit oversold right now on negative emotions, both in the crypto space and in the stock markets. ...Things have corrected SLIGHTLY from an absolutely historic bubble and you think it's OVER sold? Meanwhile, we have significant inflation, rising interest rates, supply shocks that still haven't been sorted out and signs of economic slowdown. Prices have been out of touch with reality for a long time. We aint anywhere near a bottom yet IMO.

izzydata 4y ago
Stock prices are back around where they were before the pandemic. It may have already been overvalued at that time, but perhaps it is a level of overvalue that people are comfortable with as we were already there before the system got flooded with money.
- actionablefiber 4y ago
  > Stock prices are back around where they were before the pandemic. This is not true, at least not for the U.S. stock market. Market indices are still up 20-30% over pre-pandemic levels.
  - arcticbull 4y ago
    Cool, and that was 2 years ago, during which many index components grew 20-30% year over year. Folks lose perspective on just how good these companies are at growing their revenues. GOOG for instance, was making a trailing $160B per year going into COVID. Now it's making a trailing $270B per year. [1] The S&P 500 P/E ratio is down to 20 from 25 on January 1, 2020, so the S&P 500 at least is 17% cheaper now than before COVID. [2] And looking at mid-cap tech? Shopify is trading at a lower ticker price than at the bottom of the COVID drop on March 19, 2020 - despite having tripled their revenue since then. A lot of companies are really cheap right now. [1] https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/GOOG/alphabet/revenue https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/GOOG/alphabet/reve... [2] https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio/table/by-year https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio/table/by-year
- mcguire 4y ago
  Wilshire 5000 / US GDP: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=qLC https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=qLC That is normalized to 1 in late 2007. At the end of 2021, it was 2.53; at the end of the first quarter of this year it's at 2.37. In 1Q 2020, it was 1.80. Stock prices have been increasingly disconnected from the economy 2014-2015.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]

izzydata 4y ago

Stock prices are back around where they were before the pandemic. It may have already been overvalued at that time, but perhaps it is a level of overvalue that people are comfortable with as we were already there before the system got flooded with money.

actionablefiber 4y ago
> Stock prices are back around where they were before the pandemic. This is not true, at least not for the U.S. stock market. Market indices are still up 20-30% over pre-pandemic levels.
- arcticbull 4y ago
  Cool, and that was 2 years ago, during which many index components grew 20-30% year over year. Folks lose perspective on just how good these companies are at growing their revenues. GOOG for instance, was making a trailing $160B per year going into COVID. Now it's making a trailing $270B per year. [1] The S&P 500 P/E ratio is down to 20 from 25 on January 1, 2020, so the S&P 500 at least is 17% cheaper now than before COVID. [2] And looking at mid-cap tech? Shopify is trading at a lower ticker price than at the bottom of the COVID drop on March 19, 2020 - despite having tripled their revenue since then. A lot of companies are really cheap right now. [1] https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/GOOG/alphabet/revenue https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/GOOG/alphabet/reve... [2] https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio/table/by-year https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio/table/by-year
mcguire 4y ago
Wilshire 5000 / US GDP: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=qLC https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=qLC That is normalized to 1 in late 2007. At the end of 2021, it was 2.53; at the end of the first quarter of this year it's at 2.37. In 1Q 2020, it was 1.80. Stock prices have been increasingly disconnected from the economy 2014-2015.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]