4 ms·

> From April 2020 through the end of 2021, people in China were out and about, living their lives almost as normal. Nobody knew anyone who was getting sick, muc

> From April 2020 through the end of 2021, people in China were out and about, living their lives almost as normal. Nobody knew anyone who was getting sick, much less dying. The hospitals weren't overflowing. Almost nowhere was under lockdown. During this time, the Economist's model spits out a death toll of over a million. China has 4x the number of people living there as the US. Back in November 2020, approximately 0.08% of all Americans had already died of Covid. That's about 0.01% of America's population dying a month for the first 8 months. And yet if you asked most people in the US if they actually knew of someone who got sick and went to the hospital with Covid, let alone die from it, the overwhelming response would have been no. Most of people's understanding of the toll of the virus was through the media and second hand reports, which is why Covid denialism was able to flourish. And look at case rates today. Thanks to vaccines and immunity, death rates are low, but recent CDC reports have official Covid cases for this week being at the same level as they were in November 2020, with the true number being almost certainly far higher due to the availability of home testing now. And yet American society has largely returned to business as usual, and most people don't know anyone with an active infection right now. Now look at China. A total of 1.7 million Chinese people dying through then end of 2021 would only amount to 0.12% of Chinese people dying, but over the course of 24 months, which is about 0.05% of the population dying per month over the course of the pandemic. If most Americans were still mostly only encountering Covid through the media as late as November 2020, then I imagine it would be pretty easy to feel like things are under control in China when the death rate is half that, combined with strict government control of media, hospitals, and the internet.

CorrectHorseBat 4y ago
I don't live in the USA, but since the beginning of 2020 until now basically everyone I know has had covid. No direct contacts I know went to the hospital or died, but I also don't know that many people who are older. My friends in China on the other hand know no one who has had covid, let alone someone who went to the hospital or died. That could maybe be media control, but I don't buy it. They tried that in Wuhan and it miserable failed, why would it suddenly work now? And how do you explain they didn't have mass lockdowns for 2 years and now they are back? These lockdowns are super unpopular and wreck the economy so I don't see why they would do it unless really necessary.
- DiogenesKynikos 4y ago
  If I can give my personal experience, most people I know in the US and Europe have had CoVID-19. A few of them have had quite serious cases. None of the people I know in China has gotten CoVID-19. They don't even personally know anyone who's gotten CoVID-19. The closest I've gotten is that I know one person in China who has a family member who was a close contact of an infected person. The family member had to quarantine at home for one week and get tested regularly, but didn't end up getting infected. But people with no connection at all to China believe it's somehow plausible that the virus has rampaged through the population and killed 1.7 million people, without so much as a peep getting out.
- bart_spoon 4y ago
  > since the beginning of 2020 until now basically everyone I know has had covid Yes, but that is the entirety of the pandemic, including the Omicron wave. Prior to Omicron (i.e. Winter 2021), it was estimated only about 30% of Americans had contracted Covid. Just in the last 6 months it has increased to over 60%. But in my original comment, I specifically called out the time frame from the beginning of the pandemic to November 2020 in the US. The total number of Americans to have contracted covid by that point was actually quite small, and very few people personally knew anyone, or at most one or two people, who had actually had the disease. It was still largely something people heard about through the news, and saw secondary effects of like mask mandates, rather than something they personally had experienced by that point. Now take that same death rate, halve it, and spread it not over 6 months, but 24, and yes, it would be very easy for things to feel like business as usual, even if 1.7 million individuals in China had died from the disease. The point isn't that China has had it just as bad as the rest of the us. The point is that even if they have faired remarkably well comparatively, 1.7 million deaths is entirely plausible in a country with 1.4 billion people and some of the strongest state controls over individuals on the planet. > And how do you explain they didn't have mass lockdowns for 2 years and now they are back? The reason they are back to extreme lockdowns is Omicron. Just look at the peaks elsewhere in the world compared to what was considered "bad" waves previously. It makes them look like blips. It's so contagious that even China cannot contain the spread without extreme measures.
  - 4y ago

CorrectHorseBat 4y ago

I don't live in the USA, but since the beginning of 2020 until now basically everyone I know has had covid. No direct contacts I know went to the hospital or died, but I also don't know that many people who are older. My friends in China on the other hand know no one who has had covid, let alone someone who went to the hospital or died. That could maybe be media control, but I don't buy it. They tried that in Wuhan and it miserable failed, why would it suddenly work now? And how do you explain they didn't have mass lockdowns for 2 years and now they are back? These lockdowns are super unpopular and wreck the economy so I don't see why they would do it unless really necessary.

DiogenesKynikos 4y ago
If I can give my personal experience, most people I know in the US and Europe have had CoVID-19. A few of them have had quite serious cases. None of the people I know in China has gotten CoVID-19. They don't even personally know anyone who's gotten CoVID-19. The closest I've gotten is that I know one person in China who has a family member who was a close contact of an infected person. The family member had to quarantine at home for one week and get tested regularly, but didn't end up getting infected. But people with no connection at all to China believe it's somehow plausible that the virus has rampaged through the population and killed 1.7 million people, without so much as a peep getting out.
bart_spoon 4y ago
> since the beginning of 2020 until now basically everyone I know has had covid Yes, but that is the entirety of the pandemic, including the Omicron wave. Prior to Omicron (i.e. Winter 2021), it was estimated only about 30% of Americans had contracted Covid. Just in the last 6 months it has increased to over 60%. But in my original comment, I specifically called out the time frame from the beginning of the pandemic to November 2020 in the US. The total number of Americans to have contracted covid by that point was actually quite small, and very few people personally knew anyone, or at most one or two people, who had actually had the disease. It was still largely something people heard about through the news, and saw secondary effects of like mask mandates, rather than something they personally had experienced by that point. Now take that same death rate, halve it, and spread it not over 6 months, but 24, and yes, it would be very easy for things to feel like business as usual, even if 1.7 million individuals in China had died from the disease. The point isn't that China has had it just as bad as the rest of the us. The point is that even if they have faired remarkably well comparatively, 1.7 million deaths is entirely plausible in a country with 1.4 billion people and some of the strongest state controls over individuals on the planet. > And how do you explain they didn't have mass lockdowns for 2 years and now they are back? The reason they are back to extreme lockdowns is Omicron. Just look at the peaks elsewhere in the world compared to what was considered "bad" waves previously. It makes them look like blips. It's so contagious that even China cannot contain the spread without extreme measures.
- 4y ago