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Russian rouble near 5-year highs
- phendrenad2 4y agoJust because something is expensive, doesn't mean that there's demand. If Europe starts paying Russia for gas in roubles, watch as the rouble falls back to earth (as demand forces it to find its level).
- moralestapia 4y ago>Just because something is expensive, doesn't mean that there's demand. In this case, yes, this is a country currency not some niche token or whatever, this is a liquid asset.
- neilwilson 4y agoEurope is paying for gas in roubles. Which means they have to get roubles from somebody Russian. But since there is nothing that Russian can buy with Euros they are going to have to give a lot of Euros to get the roubles in the first place. Demand and supply will find a level but it will be the rouble that strengthens.
- twelve40 4y agofall back to earth? pretty sure more demand for rubles would only add pressure for it to go up, other things equal. TFA seems to hint as much: "It was unclear whether President Vladimir Putin's demand for gas payments in roubles had also supported the currency"
- FloNeu 4y agoI am sure this is not because Russian oligarchy is trying to move all the stolen money back into Russia because of fear it being confiscated in the west.
- Arnt 4y agoNo, it's because of capital controls and central bank support. Selling rubles is very nearly forbidden for Russians, and the central bank has spent $50B on supporting the ruble. I don't understand the latter. What's the point of doing that? It's a very great deal of money, so there should be some really good reason.
- netsharc 4y agoPaul Krugman's guess[1] is that since Putin wants to sell a smoke-and-mirrors idea of "Everything is fine, Russia is winning!", having a number (the exchange rate) not match his bullshit would mean an obvious "This guy is full of shit" to anyone paying attention. So, he's made the central bank boss[2] (a respected competent lady, who rumors say tried to quit but was not allowed by Putin) do anything she could to make it look decent. [1] https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/01/opinion/russia-ruble-economy.html https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/01/opinion/russia-ruble-econ... [2] https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/09/business/elvira-nabiullina-russia-central-bank.html https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/09/business/elvira-nabiullin...
- neilwilson 4y agoHow can the central bank have done that given they are banned from transacting in dollars? The central bank of Russia has just relaxed its controls on Russians moving money to friendly countries. https://apple.news/AfMMfcmbfTHS_nbGj96-nRA https://apple.news/AfMMfcmbfTHS_nbGj96-nRA Isn’t it just the case that Russians have no need of dollars because they can’t buy anything with them. So they get rid of them for roubles which they can use to buy things. Demand and supply does the rest.
- Arnt 4y agoTheir central bank is only sanctioned in about two dozen countries. It can conduct dollar transactions in India, for example. I assume the sanctions also cover Indian subsidiaries, so the Russians won't be able to trade against e.g. Goldman Sachs's Indian subsidiary. But there are plenty of banks that aren't owned by motherships in the two dozen sanctioning countries.
- 4y ago
- spywaregorilla 4y agoWhat's the trading volume
- aaaaaaaaata 4y agoNormal or black market?
- twelve40 4y agoeither one, do you have any numbers?
- Proven 4y ago[dead]
- footlose_3815 4y ago[dead]