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Groupon Sets Nov. 4 IPO - $11.4B
- fourmii 15y agoI'm no stock market expert, bubble or not, it's companies like Groupon who are making it seem like a bubble is about to burst...
- astrodust 15y agoBased on the recent disclosure, even $1 is a high valuation.
- famousactress 15y agoOh, sweet. Does Groupon remind anyone else of that Simpsons episode where the monorail salesman comes to town?
- mjbellantoni 15y agoKind of ... but only because I was born in Ogdenville and went to college in North Haverbrook.
- fleitz 15y agoIt actually reminds me more of a gOvt jobs creation program. But yeah, I'd short the hell out of this stock. I bet Goldman did the IPO for better info on pricing the CDS
- effn 15y agoGiven the transaction costs of credit swaps, it doesn't make sense to trade them for companies as small as Groupon. That's why there are credit indexes, and Groupon is not part of any AFACT. They are definitely way too small for single name credit swaps. I don't even think they have any outstanding marketable debt instruments.
- melvinng 15y agoSounds like a big ponzi scheme with the stockholders being the last one on the chain.
- gbsi 15y agoRun for the money...
- edw519 15y ago+----------------------------------+ | TODAY'S LIVING SOCIAL DAILY DEAL | | | | 1 Share of Groupon Stock | | | | +---------+ | | $9.00 | BUY NOW | | | +---------+ | | | | 50% 224 2 days | | savings purchased remaining | +----------------------------------+
- sek 15y agoWhen do they expire?
- moheeb 15y agoBeware the time difference between now and Groupon Now!! My officemate just purchased a Groupon Now deal and tried to use it the same day...unfortunately it wasn't good until the next day! Hopefully they don't pull the same thing with their IPO.
- mey 15y agoYou made my laugh out loud, you are a central member of the HN community, but I had to down vote on snark. (I'm sure you have the Karma to burn. :) )
- vladd 15y agoNon-paywall link: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/21/us-groupon-ipo-ifr-idUSTRE79K3V520111021 http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/21/us-groupon-ipo-ifr...
- pitdesi 15y agoThis is a fascinating thing to watch... IF it IPO's at that amount, all of the VC's of the last round would have just broken even on their investment - Morgan Stanley Venture Partners, Fidelity Ventures, Andreessen Horowitz, Greylock Partners, Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, Maverick Capital, Silver Lake Partners, Technology Crossover Ventures. Quite a list. NEA, Brad and Eric make a killing, and Accel and Battery have a decent return on it. Incidentally, here is the deck that Groupon uses for their IPO roadshow: http://www.retailroadshow.com/sys/launch.asp?qv=9456365036312491&k=33901366864 http://www.retailroadshow.com/sys/launch.asp?qv=945636503631...
- gyardley 15y agoThe VCs aren't in the business to break even on their investment. They'll hold at least some of the stock. I personally think it'll be a good long-term investment. Connecting online and offline behavior for small businesses - that's gold. The current state of the industry might be irrational, but so was internet advertising in the 1990s.
- fennecfoxen 15y agoIt's a solid business, sure, but look at the risk level of the investment and not just the business. The long-term stock market average is around 7% (and you can always invest there instead). A hot technology IPO like this is risky. What kind of a premium do you demand for taking this risk? You don't just buy a hot stock and expect its price to sit there; they have Treasury bonds for that. How much growth do they need to pull off 7%+ return on your investment? Do you think that's realistic, given the competition and the amount they're spending on acquiring customers? Or have they already priced in most of that growth, leaving very little for you? If you don't have a numerical answer for these questions, you're gambling, not investing.
- driverdan 15y agoYou're assuming they find a way to acquire and retain customers while eliminating their horrible burn rate.
- paisible 15y agoSo who will be shorting this ?
- sek 15y agoMake entry in calendar: 4.11 Buy popcorn and set up a real time chart.
- genieyclo 15y agoHave they announced the underwriters yet for this IPO? edit: looks like Goldman Sachs: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-15/groupon-said-to-choose-goldman-sachs-morgan-stanley-as-ipo-underwriters.html http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-15/groupon-said-to-cho...
- gammarator 15y agoThe NYT is reporting [1] that Groupon was only (!) $1M from breaking even in the third quarter, in part because marketing expenses were sharply reduced. Also, apparently they're not allowing any current shareholders to sell during the IPO. Fine for Mason and the Lefkofskys, who took a pile of money off the table early, but if I were an early employee I would be livid. [1] http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/10/21/groupon-nears-a-profit-and-seeks-16-to-18-a-share/?hpw http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/10/21/groupon-nears-a-profi...
- suking 15y agoIt's very common to not be able to sell for 6 mos - nothing new.
- mjbellantoni 15y agoI wonder to what degree the marketing expenses were reduced in order to pretty up the numbers leading up to the IPO. It will be interesting to see if their expenditures return to previous levels after the IPO or if their revenue will suffer from the cutback.
- lhnn 15y agoWho's buying puts?
- veyron 15y agobeat you to it :P http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3139595 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3139595
- dpapathanasiou 15y agoIt would be interesting to log the institutional buyers of it (hopefully none of the funds I own) and track how long they hold it.
- xefer 15y agoI will be shorting this stock
- fennecfoxen 15y agoFirst your broker needs to find someone to borrow it from. The float's only going to be about 5%. Good luck.
- jamiequint 15y agoAlternatively you could buy puts.
- deleted 15y ago[deleted]
- misterbwong 15y agoAs far as I can tell, (my unscientific, anecdotal survey of) tech industry sentiment is that Groupon makes no money and general consumer sentiment is that they make a decent amount. It will be interesting to see which side wins out.
- jerf 15y agoThe tech industry has gone over the financials. The consumer sentiment comes from the fact that they see it a lot, and therefore it must be making lots of money. I'm not sure that these two things compare very directly....
- misterbwong 15y agoThat's kind of the point. I want to see if the tech industry's financial analysis wins out over general a fuzzy-good feeling in the market.
- deleted 15y ago[deleted]
- tamersalama 15y ago> Groupon uses Gross Revenue Treatment, not net revenue (as eBay does) I've read that it was revised to net revenue. Can't remember where though.
- 0x12 15y agoSo, someone still wants to argue against this being a bubble?
- klochner 15y agoLooks like they slowed the marketing spend pre-ipo: http://siteanalytics.compete.com/groupon.com/ http://siteanalytics.compete.com/groupon.com/
- raganwald 15y agoOf course they did. Question is, is that “organic” slowing of marketing spend because they are able to leverage their existing relationships and customer base to make money? Or is this just a way of making the company appear to lose less money in the short term to appease the critics? Now if you’ll excuse me, I have popcorn on the stove, gotta run.
- antr 15y agoI'm selling $10 notes for $20. It's a better deal than the Groupon IPO. Anyone interested?