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Yeah, the previous crashes have been a lot more violent. The current bubble is definitely over though. Bubbles come like clockwork every 4 years (due to the 5

Yeah, the previous crashes have been a lot more violent. The current bubble is definitely over though. Bubbles come like clockwork every 4 years (due to the 50% supply cuts every 4 years) it would be interesting to see if it happens again. Though an earlier bubble could be kicked off when ethereum cuts it's supply by 90%.

datalopers 4y ago
> The current bubble is definitely over though Why do you say “over”? I see BTC reaching $20k this summer and then falling to <$10k as miners fold.
- onlyrealcuzzo 4y ago
  Why would miners folding cause Bitcoin to drop in value? The same amount of Bitcoin will be mined no matter what.
  - ItsMonkk 4y ago
    Not quite. Bitcoin difficulty adjusts every 2000 blocks, which typically happens every two weeks. If the hashrate drops, those blocks happen less often, so the adjustment happens less often. These past years the Bitcoin ASICs have been tremendously profitable, and as a result the demand for the hardware goes up, leading to huge profits for the hardware makers. These past few months have seen a drop in Bitcoin, which drops the profit for miners, but as it is still above electricity prices, only results in cheaper hardware. If Bitcoin drops below the electricity line, you will see miners all over the world start to turn off their devices. And once that happens, block time will rise, and that will start making the entire network less trusting. This will cause a spike of people selling their coins, and with less blocks this means a packed exit. With the packed exit, you would think this would incentivize mining as transaction fees go way up, but those fees come directly from the value of the coin, so once this starts the value of the coin is going to drop heavily. With mining profitability dropping the further this goes, the longer block times, the more the price of Bitcoin goes down. If Bitcoin goes below 10k quick enough, it won't ever see another difficulty adjustment, and the entire chain dies. The developers might chose to hard-fork and change the difficulty changes algorithm, but as we've seen with Bitcoin Cash, these changes are political and don't tend to end well.
    - latchkey 4y ago
      This all sounds good on paper, except for the fact that large miners don't sell their bitcoin. Even when they do, it isn't on the open markets and happens in ways that don't affect the price (OTC) and by selling options.
    - tromp 4y ago
      > Bitcoin difficulty adjusts every 2000 blocks It's 6*24*7*2 = 2016 blocks, the number of 10 min intervals in 2 weeks.
  - postalrat 4y ago
    If mining becomes a major expense because the price of bitcoin is too low to recoup the cost of electricity how long would it take for the difficult to adjust? If miners and shutting down during that time I'd expect the time between blocks to increase.
  - manquer 4y ago
    Miners are also large holders of Bitcoin in addition to mining and those bitcoins are likely leverage then to buy equipment. As the bitcoin price drops , they will have more margin calls and new coins are not that profitable. You can expect lot of mining sales to happen and orders get fullfilled as selling the equipment becomes more attractive. Some of the smaller/more leveraged ones will definitely fail at long term prices of say 20k or less .
- ChrisClark 4y ago
  I mean it's not going back up to $60k. The bubble is over, but it's only the start of a longer bear market, so yeah, it can go much lower.
  - datalopers 4y ago
    Oh, yeah we’re in the same page, I misinterpreted your original comment.
  - latchkey 4y ago
    Just to confirm, you don't feel it'll ever go to 60k?
    - ChrisClark 4y ago
      Not at all what I said or think. I only mentioned this current bubble is over. I'm not talking about the next one. It most likely won't hit $60k this year, but there is a new bubble like clockwork every 4 years. And like I said, another bubble could be kicked off earlier when the ethereum emission drops 90%. That could drag bitcoin up a bit and trigger an early start to the next bubble.
  - eric_cc 4y ago
    > I mean it's not going back up to $60k. Oh man. I'll have fun poking you next year about how embarrassingly wrong you were.
    - ChrisClark 4y ago
      I wouldn't say next year, but by 2025 I think there will be a new ATH. But I'm just very conservatives in my predictions.
      - eric_cc 4y ago
        Ah fair enough. I misunderstood your comment. I thought you were suggesting 60k was the ALL TIME high bitcoin will ever achieve. As for timelines - that's anybody's guess.
- id 4y ago
  Even if it goes below $10k, that would be normal price action for Bitcoin. It would start to get interesting if it goes below $1k.
  - paulpauper 4y ago
    that would be worse than 2018
    - TomSwirly 4y ago
      Better, rather.
fsckboy 4y ago
>The current bubble is definitely over though with bitcoin hovering ~$30K, still seems like there's air in the bubble. a 50% drop (from $60K) is pretty normal for bitcoin. It could drop a lot more without shaking the confidence of the hodlers
- ChrisClark 4y ago
  Yeah, I mean the bubble is over, it's not going to $60k. It still can drop a lot further. Am I using the word bubble wrong? Another responded in the same way. I mean it's now definitely a bear market, and going down, not up.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]

datalopers 4y ago

> The current bubble is definitely over though Why do you say “over”? I see BTC reaching $20k this summer and then falling to <$10k as miners fold.

onlyrealcuzzo 4y ago
Why would miners folding cause Bitcoin to drop in value? The same amount of Bitcoin will be mined no matter what.
- ItsMonkk 4y ago
  Not quite. Bitcoin difficulty adjusts every 2000 blocks, which typically happens every two weeks. If the hashrate drops, those blocks happen less often, so the adjustment happens less often. These past years the Bitcoin ASICs have been tremendously profitable, and as a result the demand for the hardware goes up, leading to huge profits for the hardware makers. These past few months have seen a drop in Bitcoin, which drops the profit for miners, but as it is still above electricity prices, only results in cheaper hardware. If Bitcoin drops below the electricity line, you will see miners all over the world start to turn off their devices. And once that happens, block time will rise, and that will start making the entire network less trusting. This will cause a spike of people selling their coins, and with less blocks this means a packed exit. With the packed exit, you would think this would incentivize mining as transaction fees go way up, but those fees come directly from the value of the coin, so once this starts the value of the coin is going to drop heavily. With mining profitability dropping the further this goes, the longer block times, the more the price of Bitcoin goes down. If Bitcoin goes below 10k quick enough, it won't ever see another difficulty adjustment, and the entire chain dies. The developers might chose to hard-fork and change the difficulty changes algorithm, but as we've seen with Bitcoin Cash, these changes are political and don't tend to end well.
  - latchkey 4y ago
    This all sounds good on paper, except for the fact that large miners don't sell their bitcoin. Even when they do, it isn't on the open markets and happens in ways that don't affect the price (OTC) and by selling options.
  - tromp 4y ago
    > Bitcoin difficulty adjusts every 2000 blocks It's 6*24*7*2 = 2016 blocks, the number of 10 min intervals in 2 weeks.
- postalrat 4y ago
  If mining becomes a major expense because the price of bitcoin is too low to recoup the cost of electricity how long would it take for the difficult to adjust? If miners and shutting down during that time I'd expect the time between blocks to increase.
- manquer 4y ago
  Miners are also large holders of Bitcoin in addition to mining and those bitcoins are likely leverage then to buy equipment. As the bitcoin price drops , they will have more margin calls and new coins are not that profitable. You can expect lot of mining sales to happen and orders get fullfilled as selling the equipment becomes more attractive. Some of the smaller/more leveraged ones will definitely fail at long term prices of say 20k or less .
ChrisClark 4y ago
I mean it's not going back up to $60k. The bubble is over, but it's only the start of a longer bear market, so yeah, it can go much lower.
- datalopers 4y ago
  Oh, yeah we’re in the same page, I misinterpreted your original comment.
- latchkey 4y ago
  Just to confirm, you don't feel it'll ever go to 60k?
  - ChrisClark 4y ago
    Not at all what I said or think. I only mentioned this current bubble is over. I'm not talking about the next one. It most likely won't hit $60k this year, but there is a new bubble like clockwork every 4 years. And like I said, another bubble could be kicked off earlier when the ethereum emission drops 90%. That could drag bitcoin up a bit and trigger an early start to the next bubble.
- eric_cc 4y ago
  > I mean it's not going back up to $60k. Oh man. I'll have fun poking you next year about how embarrassingly wrong you were.
  - ChrisClark 4y ago
    I wouldn't say next year, but by 2025 I think there will be a new ATH. But I'm just very conservatives in my predictions.
    - eric_cc 4y ago
      Ah fair enough. I misunderstood your comment. I thought you were suggesting 60k was the ALL TIME high bitcoin will ever achieve. As for timelines - that's anybody's guess.
id 4y ago
Even if it goes below $10k, that would be normal price action for Bitcoin. It would start to get interesting if it goes below $1k.
- paulpauper 4y ago
  that would be worse than 2018
  - TomSwirly 4y ago
    Better, rather.

fsckboy 4y ago

>The current bubble is definitely over though with bitcoin hovering ~$30K, still seems like there's air in the bubble. a 50% drop (from $60K) is pretty normal for bitcoin. It could drop a lot more without shaking the confidence of the hodlers

ChrisClark 4y ago
Yeah, I mean the bubble is over, it's not going to $60k. It still can drop a lot further. Am I using the word bubble wrong? Another responded in the same way. I mean it's now definitely a bear market, and going down, not up.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]