4 ms·

About 10 million people die per year in China. At some point when thinking about the value of preventing death you need to introduce QALYs and then you need to

About 10 million people die per year in China. At some point when thinking about the value of preventing death you need to introduce QALYs and then you need to think about the the duration, impact and breadth of lockdowns.

whimsicalism 4y ago
But most of China has not been on lockdown for most of the pandemic. Most people have experienced less lockdown than in the US, albeit more intense when it is locked down. 4 million excess deaths is a ton no matter which way you look at it.
- xyzzy123 4y ago
  I agree and the strategy makes sense for China. Since it is now more or less endemic in the rest of the world it will be interesting to see how long they will maintain it. Ultimately zero covid is a thing you do to buy time for your healthcare system or for better vaccination coverage (or just to kick the can, maybe you get better tech). The 4 million deaths are inevitable unless you can maintain zero COVID forever or fundamentally change the situation for people who are very vulnerable to COVID-19. Preventing healthcare systems from being overwhelmed is a big factor. Otherwise you are just doing "accounting" to choose what year your excess deaths happen in, for political purposes. All that said, I'd always take an extra year over dying right now.
  - whimsicalism 4y ago
    > fundamentally change the situation for people who are very vulnerable to COVID-19 the situation is already fundamentally changed in terms of treatment efficacy than what it was in 2020.
    - xyzzy123 4y ago
      So what's China waiting for (have 4 million deaths been averted by zero covid, or have they been delayed?). Is it still 4 million or not anymore? I guess they are delayed and will be averted in future? Maybe there will be further tech shift, or a healthcare surge? I suppose what I am trying to express is that zero covid is not a viable long-term strategy, it's a thing you do to buy time for your actual strategy, whatever that is.
      - whimsicalism 4y ago
        China has done an awful job vaccinating their population - this is the real story that is being undercovered by the media, rather than trying to convince me that somehow their massive lockdown success is somehow actually a failure.
        xyzzy123 4y ago
        Fair call.
        spookthesunset 4y ago
        I suppose if you consider robbing people of their supposedly inalienable human rights is a “success”, then sure it’s a “success”. But believe it or not there are vastly more problems in the world than an extremely myopic focus on exactly one single respiratory virus to the literal exclusion of everything else including human rights. Serious I cannot get over how many people think this kind of response is ever justified. It is incredibly myopic thinking.
        pengaru 4y ago
        > China has done an awful job vaccinating their population - this is the real story that is being undercovered by the media According to [0] they've got 1,287,195,000 fully vaccinated, how is that an awful job? AIUI their failing is more along the lines of not using the mrna vaccines, but despite having a huge population they seem to have put jabs in most arms. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_vaccination_in_mainland_China https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_vaccination_in_mainla...
        whimsicalism 4y ago
        Because unlike in the West, their coverage gaps are highest among the elderly. https://archive.ph/Ww9o3/a0fe4ca441387dca37b8beebe30ac2605019d2de.png https://archive.ph/Ww9o3/a0fe4ca441387dca37b8beebe30ac260501...
    - the8472 4y ago
      Not just treatment but also the availability of vaccines. Of course if you fail to use the bought time to improve vaccination levels then you wasted it.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
- _fat_santa 4y ago
  > 4 million excess deaths is a ton no matter which way you look at it. You have to take the size of China into account, with 1.5B people, 4M is 2% of their population, it would be similar to 700k deaths in the US. While yes it is a ton, think about what effect the lockdowns will have. Some have speculated that more people have died thus far in Shanghai from the lockdowns than from Covid itself.
  - whimsicalism 4y ago
    > Some have speculated that more people have died thus far in Shanghai from the lockdowns than from Covid itself. Which only shows how few covid deaths China has had.
    - slaw 4y ago
      Which shows how benign covid is.
  - floxy 4y ago
    >with 1.5B people, 4M is 2% of their population Missed a decimal point: 0.267%

whimsicalism 4y ago

But most of China has not been on lockdown for most of the pandemic. Most people have experienced less lockdown than in the US, albeit more intense when it is locked down. 4 million excess deaths is a ton no matter which way you look at it.

xyzzy123 4y ago
I agree and the strategy makes sense for China. Since it is now more or less endemic in the rest of the world it will be interesting to see how long they will maintain it. Ultimately zero covid is a thing you do to buy time for your healthcare system or for better vaccination coverage (or just to kick the can, maybe you get better tech). The 4 million deaths are inevitable unless you can maintain zero COVID forever or fundamentally change the situation for people who are very vulnerable to COVID-19. Preventing healthcare systems from being overwhelmed is a big factor. Otherwise you are just doing "accounting" to choose what year your excess deaths happen in, for political purposes. All that said, I'd always take an extra year over dying right now.
- whimsicalism 4y ago
  > fundamentally change the situation for people who are very vulnerable to COVID-19 the situation is already fundamentally changed in terms of treatment efficacy than what it was in 2020.
  - xyzzy123 4y ago
    So what's China waiting for (have 4 million deaths been averted by zero covid, or have they been delayed?). Is it still 4 million or not anymore? I guess they are delayed and will be averted in future? Maybe there will be further tech shift, or a healthcare surge? I suppose what I am trying to express is that zero covid is not a viable long-term strategy, it's a thing you do to buy time for your actual strategy, whatever that is.
    - whimsicalism 4y ago
      China has done an awful job vaccinating their population - this is the real story that is being undercovered by the media, rather than trying to convince me that somehow their massive lockdown success is somehow actually a failure.
      - xyzzy123 4y ago
        Fair call.
      - spookthesunset 4y ago
        I suppose if you consider robbing people of their supposedly inalienable human rights is a “success”, then sure it’s a “success”. But believe it or not there are vastly more problems in the world than an extremely myopic focus on exactly one single respiratory virus to the literal exclusion of everything else including human rights. Serious I cannot get over how many people think this kind of response is ever justified. It is incredibly myopic thinking.
      - pengaru 4y ago
        > China has done an awful job vaccinating their population - this is the real story that is being undercovered by the media According to [0] they've got 1,287,195,000 fully vaccinated, how is that an awful job? AIUI their failing is more along the lines of not using the mrna vaccines, but despite having a huge population they seem to have put jabs in most arms. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_vaccination_in_mainland_China https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_vaccination_in_mainla...
        whimsicalism 4y ago
        Because unlike in the West, their coverage gaps are highest among the elderly. https://archive.ph/Ww9o3/a0fe4ca441387dca37b8beebe30ac2605019d2de.png https://archive.ph/Ww9o3/a0fe4ca441387dca37b8beebe30ac260501...
  - the8472 4y ago
    Not just treatment but also the availability of vaccines. Of course if you fail to use the bought time to improve vaccination levels then you wasted it.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
_fat_santa 4y ago
> 4 million excess deaths is a ton no matter which way you look at it. You have to take the size of China into account, with 1.5B people, 4M is 2% of their population, it would be similar to 700k deaths in the US. While yes it is a ton, think about what effect the lockdowns will have. Some have speculated that more people have died thus far in Shanghai from the lockdowns than from Covid itself.
- whimsicalism 4y ago
  > Some have speculated that more people have died thus far in Shanghai from the lockdowns than from Covid itself. Which only shows how few covid deaths China has had.
  - slaw 4y ago
    Which shows how benign covid is.
- floxy 4y ago
  >with 1.5B people, 4M is 2% of their population Missed a decimal point: 0.267%