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This is similar to what happened in Europe at height of our first lockdowns - give a few months and demand will be back with a catch-up.
by throwaway4good 4y ago
This is similar to what happened in Europe at height of our first lockdowns - give a few months and demand will be back with a catch-up.
- awillen 4y agoIt's not about demand, though - it's about people being physically unable to leave and buy a car. It's not necessarily comparable to Europe because nowhere in Europe was pursuing the same zero COVID policy that China is, and it's tough to imagine that they'll ever achieve that on any kind of a long-term basis. Given that, who knows how long these restrictions will stay in place.
- masklinn 4y agoThe situation in Shanghai is orders of magnitude more extreme than what happened in Europe. At the heights of lockdown, the European market dropped 76% YoY (from 1143046 cars in April 2019 to 270682 in 2020). Even in the most affected countries the market didn't bottom out so completely: * in the UK, sales went from 161k to 4.3k * in Italy, sales went from 175k to 4.3k * in Ireland, sales went from 8900 to 344 (nb: the Irish market seems extremely seasonal, with strong sales in January and July, middling sales in Feb and March dropping to nothing by June, and basically no sales from August to December, in 2020 the bottom dropped out in March but sales recovered almost normally by July) Shanghai has almost 4 times the population of Ireland, 40% the population of Italy or the UK.