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> solar and wind power are both consistently cheaper than fossil fuels Solar power is not cheaper than combined-cycle natural gas at midnight. The article th

> solar and wind power are both consistently cheaper than fossil fuels Solar power is not cheaper than combined-cycle natural gas at midnight. The article that you cited does not contain the words "battery" or "storage", and one really needs to compare the all-in levelized cost of energy (and storage) over the life of the project. It does mention hydrogen, but does not go into the efficiency calculations.

jlmorton 4y ago
An important point to be made is that as electric vehicles take off, we'll soon start to find ourselves with an avalanche of worn batteries that no longer adequately support EVs, but work just fine as grid storage. There are 280 million vehicles in the US. If fifty million of those were electric vehicles, then ten years later we'd have enough already-produced batteries to power the entire United States overnight. There were 300,000 EVs sold in the US in 2020. There were 600,000 in 2021. This doesn't help right now, but over time, it's becoming clear there will be a flood of cheap batteries available for grid storage. As a nice side effect, as the market for these used batteries takes off, this might help to assuage fears about expensive battery pack replacements, fueling more EV adoption.
- tsimionescu 4y ago
  Do you really believe it is feasible to collect 50 million used car batteries in various states of wear and connect them to the grid while expecting this to be a stable solution to solar power during the night?
  - kodah 4y ago
    If you were rich enough to buy a Tesla wouldn't you try to talk the government into buying your battery off of you?
    - tsimionescu 4y ago
      You might, but that's not the question, it's the other side that's more important. Will any state be willing to rely on used car batteries as a critical component of their power grid?
      - kodah 4y ago
        Personally, I think these used car batteries will go straight to the dump and will be just another investigative journalism story about how we're damaging the local ecology. Batteries can be recycled but it's fairly expensive, so someone would have to engineer a process that optimizes for time, cost, and life of the battery. As far as I know, nothing exists in mass production like this today. What I think is more feasible is us finding a way to store energy outside the means of a typical lithium battery. I could very well be idealistic in this sense though.
    - ZeroGravitas 4y ago
      You think that regulatory capture of the government by rich, individual Tesla owners is a key energy policy concern? That seems outlandish.
      - kodah 4y ago
        I don't think Tesla owners are that influential, no. I was merely making a joke that we get solutions codified into law that are driven primarily by rich people, and I don't think anyone would argue buying a $60k car doesn't make you rich.
        ZeroGravitas 4y ago
        And the rich people you worry about influencing policy aren't the Saudi Royal family, Vladimir Putin and the giant corporations who profit from fossil fuels and literally started a conspiracy theory that scientists were lying to us in an effort to destroy modern civizilation and so on, but rather 'rich' people who have bought an EV with the same total cost of ownership as a Toyota Camry?
  - londons_explore 4y ago
    If the power market is fully 'open', then yes, it will happen. All it takes is for a car scrap dealer to realise that for every EV battery he grabs out and hooks up to the grid he'll earn $200/year. Before long, every scrap dealer will be doing it to every car. However, I suspect that small players will be barred from the electricity markets via mountains of bureaucracy and certification, so that might not happen.
    - mbgerring 4y ago
      You can come work on the problem of opening up the electricity market to small players today: https://www.arcadia.com/careers https://www.arcadia.com/careers
      - londons_explore 4y ago
        Alas, I see no way they'll be successful, because the 'old players' who need disrupting own all the electricity cables and get to set the rules.
        mbgerring 4y ago
        Well, our growing revenue seems to suggest otherwise, but I guess we’ll just have to wait and see!
    - tsimionescu 4y ago
      That doesn't really scale. The power grid needs to be reliable, and there needs to be some idea of how much capacity you actually have. If people simply hook up an unknown number of batteries of unknown capacities in unknown spaces, how can you rely on the resulting power grid? How can you plan extensions? Not to mention high capacity batteries are huge fire risks, especially worn out high capacity batteries. Can you imagine how much water you'd need to put out a 200 car battery lithium fire? Iw would be truly irresponsible to let scrapyards build makeshift power storage stations like this.
      - 4y ago
  - mbgerring 4y ago
    You could probably get a couple million in VC money to try it. Somebody probably should!
    - tsimionescu 4y ago
      To me it seems pretty obvious from first principles that it can't work. It's also not something that you can just try out. I'm sure it will "work" in some sense at small scales - you can probably buy a few worn batteries off a used car and connect them to the grid and perhaps make a profit. But the problem is that this can't be relied on by a whole country as a solution to ensuring power generation. This type of storage is by definition "best-effort" : you don't know at what rate you'll be able to increase storage capacity (how many car batteries will be retired and with how much remaining capacity?), you don't know how much capacity you actually have (what is the actual remaining capacity of these batteries, and what is the risk each will malfunction in some way in the next charge/discharge cycle?). Not to mention, the risk of fires while amassing worn-out lithium batteries in close proximity to each other is gigantic, and there is no simple way of putting out a lithium battery fire. It could even be that this alone is enough to make such an operation unprofitable when accounting for insurance costs, even if it were allowed to run and connect to the grid.
      - cinntaile 4y ago
        You claim you reach this conclusion from first principles but I don't see any calculations that back up your statements?
        tsimionescu 4y ago
        I have my (qualitative, not quantitative) reasoning in the entire comment. You're free to ignore, agree, disagree, or counter argue. I'm not going to spend days or weeks researching and coming up with a decent statistical model for something I don't even believe makes sense on intre the face of it for a comment thread. I'd also note that something being infeasible from first principles explicitly implies that there's no need for calculations or experiments. For example, if someone comes up with a machine whose claimed performance makes it a perpetuum mobile, I don't need to calculate anything: I know from first principles (conservation of energy) that they are wrong or lying. Of course, this is nowhere near as cut and dry, but I did give my reasoning for why this doesn't seem to me to make any sense.
  - ZeroGravitas 4y ago
    In some alternate dimension where wind power didn't exist, yeah, that could easily work. In this dimension, EVs that charge during the midday solar peak and overnight from wind will make an important contribution to rolling out reneweables, cheaper energy and ditching oil and gas.
  - jlmorton 4y ago
    Sorry for the late reply, but you might be interested in this report from the California Lithium-ion Car Battery Recycling Advisory Group [1]. I'll quote a brief section: > In general, batteries will be retired from use in an EV when the range and performance is no longer acceptable to the driver. The remaining capacity of the battery at the time of retirement will vary depending on consumer preference, but it is generally assumed to be between 70- 80%. > Given the large capacity and high performance of modern vehicle batteries, retired batteries could still offer significant value in lower-power, secondary applications, such as storing energy from solar panels to be used in off-grid or peak demand-shaving applications.37 > A growing body of research has examined the environmental impacts and technical and economic feasibility of repurposing batteries for use in second-life applications.38–42 Since repurposed batteries are a relatively new phenomenon, data about their performance is uncertain, particularly because of the uneven degradation of battery cells over time. However, it is estimated that battery lifespan can be extended by 10 years or longer depending on the application.38,43,44 [1] https://calepa.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2021/12/Final-Draft-Policy-Recommendations-Lithium-ion-Car-Battery-Recycling-Advisory-Group-AB-2832-As-of-12-13-21-for-public-comment.pdf https://calepa.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2021/12/Fin...
nl 4y ago
There's pretty decent analysis of levelized costs including storage by Lazard[1]. This type of analysis is pretty difficult though. A modern grid with both solar and wind power is pretty resilient and calculating the amount of storage needed depends on the things like if it has long distance transmission lines (increasing reliance by increasing the geography). I think this is why a lot of places end up having a gas peaker plant. In terms of running costs it's not great, and the climate impact is bad (although I guess hydrogen helps is that is available anywhere yet). But it's cheap to build ($85M gets you 55MW[2]). These days batteries are cost competitive with that though[3]: > a 250MW, four-hour (1,000MWh) battery system in New South Wales would be a cheaper option for meeting peak demand than a 250MW new-build OCGT from both levelised cost of energy (LCOE) and levelised cost of capacity (LCOC) perspectives.[3] [1] https://www.lazard.com/perspective/levelized-cost-of-energy-levelized-cost-of-storage-and-levelized-cost-of-hydrogen/ https://www.lazard.com/perspective/levelized-cost-of-energy-... (scroll down for storage) [2] https://www.wbur.org/news/2022/04/08/peabody-peaker-natural-gas-power-massachusetts https://www.wbur.org/news/2022/04/08/peabody-peaker-natural-... [3] https://www.energy-storage.news/battery-storage-30-cheaper-than-new-gas-peaker-plants-australian-study-finds/ https://www.energy-storage.news/battery-storage-30-cheaper-t...

jlmorton 4y ago

An important point to be made is that as electric vehicles take off, we'll soon start to find ourselves with an avalanche of worn batteries that no longer adequately support EVs, but work just fine as grid storage. There are 280 million vehicles in the US. If fifty million of those were electric vehicles, then ten years later we'd have enough already-produced batteries to power the entire United States overnight. There were 300,000 EVs sold in the US in 2020. There were 600,000 in 2021. This doesn't help right now, but over time, it's becoming clear there will be a flood of cheap batteries available for grid storage. As a nice side effect, as the market for these used batteries takes off, this might help to assuage fears about expensive battery pack replacements, fueling more EV adoption.

tsimionescu 4y ago
Do you really believe it is feasible to collect 50 million used car batteries in various states of wear and connect them to the grid while expecting this to be a stable solution to solar power during the night?
- kodah 4y ago
  If you were rich enough to buy a Tesla wouldn't you try to talk the government into buying your battery off of you?
  - tsimionescu 4y ago
    You might, but that's not the question, it's the other side that's more important. Will any state be willing to rely on used car batteries as a critical component of their power grid?
    - kodah 4y ago
      Personally, I think these used car batteries will go straight to the dump and will be just another investigative journalism story about how we're damaging the local ecology. Batteries can be recycled but it's fairly expensive, so someone would have to engineer a process that optimizes for time, cost, and life of the battery. As far as I know, nothing exists in mass production like this today. What I think is more feasible is us finding a way to store energy outside the means of a typical lithium battery. I could very well be idealistic in this sense though.
  - ZeroGravitas 4y ago
    You think that regulatory capture of the government by rich, individual Tesla owners is a key energy policy concern? That seems outlandish.
    - kodah 4y ago
      I don't think Tesla owners are that influential, no. I was merely making a joke that we get solutions codified into law that are driven primarily by rich people, and I don't think anyone would argue buying a $60k car doesn't make you rich.
      - ZeroGravitas 4y ago
        And the rich people you worry about influencing policy aren't the Saudi Royal family, Vladimir Putin and the giant corporations who profit from fossil fuels and literally started a conspiracy theory that scientists were lying to us in an effort to destroy modern civizilation and so on, but rather 'rich' people who have bought an EV with the same total cost of ownership as a Toyota Camry?
- londons_explore 4y ago
  If the power market is fully 'open', then yes, it will happen. All it takes is for a car scrap dealer to realise that for every EV battery he grabs out and hooks up to the grid he'll earn $200/year. Before long, every scrap dealer will be doing it to every car. However, I suspect that small players will be barred from the electricity markets via mountains of bureaucracy and certification, so that might not happen.
  - mbgerring 4y ago
    You can come work on the problem of opening up the electricity market to small players today: https://www.arcadia.com/careers https://www.arcadia.com/careers
    - londons_explore 4y ago
      Alas, I see no way they'll be successful, because the 'old players' who need disrupting own all the electricity cables and get to set the rules.
      - mbgerring 4y ago
        Well, our growing revenue seems to suggest otherwise, but I guess we’ll just have to wait and see!
  - tsimionescu 4y ago
    That doesn't really scale. The power grid needs to be reliable, and there needs to be some idea of how much capacity you actually have. If people simply hook up an unknown number of batteries of unknown capacities in unknown spaces, how can you rely on the resulting power grid? How can you plan extensions? Not to mention high capacity batteries are huge fire risks, especially worn out high capacity batteries. Can you imagine how much water you'd need to put out a 200 car battery lithium fire? Iw would be truly irresponsible to let scrapyards build makeshift power storage stations like this.
    - 4y ago
- mbgerring 4y ago
  You could probably get a couple million in VC money to try it. Somebody probably should!
  - tsimionescu 4y ago
    To me it seems pretty obvious from first principles that it can't work. It's also not something that you can just try out. I'm sure it will "work" in some sense at small scales - you can probably buy a few worn batteries off a used car and connect them to the grid and perhaps make a profit. But the problem is that this can't be relied on by a whole country as a solution to ensuring power generation. This type of storage is by definition "best-effort" : you don't know at what rate you'll be able to increase storage capacity (how many car batteries will be retired and with how much remaining capacity?), you don't know how much capacity you actually have (what is the actual remaining capacity of these batteries, and what is the risk each will malfunction in some way in the next charge/discharge cycle?). Not to mention, the risk of fires while amassing worn-out lithium batteries in close proximity to each other is gigantic, and there is no simple way of putting out a lithium battery fire. It could even be that this alone is enough to make such an operation unprofitable when accounting for insurance costs, even if it were allowed to run and connect to the grid.
    - cinntaile 4y ago
      You claim you reach this conclusion from first principles but I don't see any calculations that back up your statements?
      - tsimionescu 4y ago
        I have my (qualitative, not quantitative) reasoning in the entire comment. You're free to ignore, agree, disagree, or counter argue. I'm not going to spend days or weeks researching and coming up with a decent statistical model for something I don't even believe makes sense on intre the face of it for a comment thread. I'd also note that something being infeasible from first principles explicitly implies that there's no need for calculations or experiments. For example, if someone comes up with a machine whose claimed performance makes it a perpetuum mobile, I don't need to calculate anything: I know from first principles (conservation of energy) that they are wrong or lying. Of course, this is nowhere near as cut and dry, but I did give my reasoning for why this doesn't seem to me to make any sense.
- ZeroGravitas 4y ago
  In some alternate dimension where wind power didn't exist, yeah, that could easily work. In this dimension, EVs that charge during the midday solar peak and overnight from wind will make an important contribution to rolling out reneweables, cheaper energy and ditching oil and gas.
- jlmorton 4y ago
  Sorry for the late reply, but you might be interested in this report from the California Lithium-ion Car Battery Recycling Advisory Group [1]. I'll quote a brief section: > In general, batteries will be retired from use in an EV when the range and performance is no longer acceptable to the driver. The remaining capacity of the battery at the time of retirement will vary depending on consumer preference, but it is generally assumed to be between 70- 80%. > Given the large capacity and high performance of modern vehicle batteries, retired batteries could still offer significant value in lower-power, secondary applications, such as storing energy from solar panels to be used in off-grid or peak demand-shaving applications.37 > A growing body of research has examined the environmental impacts and technical and economic feasibility of repurposing batteries for use in second-life applications.38–42 Since repurposed batteries are a relatively new phenomenon, data about their performance is uncertain, particularly because of the uneven degradation of battery cells over time. However, it is estimated that battery lifespan can be extended by 10 years or longer depending on the application.38,43,44 [1] https://calepa.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2021/12/Final-Draft-Policy-Recommendations-Lithium-ion-Car-Battery-Recycling-Advisory-Group-AB-2832-As-of-12-13-21-for-public-comment.pdf https://calepa.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2021/12/Fin...

nl 4y ago

There's pretty decent analysis of levelized costs including storage by Lazard[1]. This type of analysis is pretty difficult though. A modern grid with both solar and wind power is pretty resilient and calculating the amount of storage needed depends on the things like if it has long distance transmission lines (increasing reliance by increasing the geography). I think this is why a lot of places end up having a gas peaker plant. In terms of running costs it's not great, and the climate impact is bad (although I guess hydrogen helps is that is available anywhere yet). But it's cheap to build ($85M gets you 55MW[2]). These days batteries are cost competitive with that though[3]: > a 250MW, four-hour (1,000MWh) battery system in New South Wales would be a cheaper option for meeting peak demand than a 250MW new-build OCGT from both levelised cost of energy (LCOE) and levelised cost of capacity (LCOC) perspectives.[3] [1] https://www.lazard.com/perspective/levelized-cost-of-energy-levelized-cost-of-storage-and-levelized-cost-of-hydrogen/ https://www.lazard.com/perspective/levelized-cost-of-energy-... (scroll down for storage) [2] https://www.wbur.org/news/2022/04/08/peabody-peaker-natural-gas-power-massachusetts https://www.wbur.org/news/2022/04/08/peabody-peaker-natural-... [3] https://www.energy-storage.news/battery-storage-30-cheaper-than-new-gas-peaker-plants-australian-study-finds/ https://www.energy-storage.news/battery-storage-30-cheaper-t...