3 ms·

Do you realise that that kind of ROI has never been normal? In the old days (pre 2000), around 6-8 pct per anno was considered good and anything over 10% stell

Do you realise that that kind of ROI has never been normal? In the old days (pre 2000), around 6-8 pct per anno was considered good and anything over 10% stellar. By making 10-baggers feel normal, more people are feeling FOMO and taking "investements" they don't understand and does not have the money for. As soon as they get a margin call they are dead in the water... Wealthy people historically have either worked up the money (the key word "work", though not as an employee) or inherited it. Today people are asking, "having 10 dollars, how can I be a billionaire next week"? There IS no way of getting a 10x return even in a decade, unless a) You are fine with "robbing" other people (i.e. being early and exiting early) in a fraud (and I count all the cryptos as fraud). b) you are doing something of tremendous societal value ON YOUR OWN RISK. I.e. building a company that produces stuff that customers want to pay for... c) taking a hugely leveraged calculated risk based on your view on long term market conditions (and that is also EXTREMELY risky) That was the reason Silicon Valley produced so much wealth, they made PRODUCTS that others wanted. Today I am not so sure Silicon Valley's value proposition anymore.. I for one am fine with a solid financial plan, where I day-to-day feel wealthy enough and have a nice saving for my retirement.. (And I expect only 5% per anno to make it work)

_5uxp 4y ago
Yes but we it can be more normal and possible time to time, depending on how FED feels. Because there is literally more money and debt in the entire financial system compared to any time in human history so it can make thing less efficent. Unlike made up things like efficient market hypothesis. Nice list but since crypto is fraud etc, historically countries had colonies, slaves and many rich made also this way. Wars were funded by rich, elite or defence industry, recent example is how much arms they left and spend in Afganistan? Why not mention any of those also? am I just wrong?
- svennek 4y ago
  Sorry, forgot to add "actually robbing" people (of possession or freedom) to the list due to thinking over the last two decades. Look, I don't say that the current financial system isn't in trouble - especially in the US. Most of the EU countries (where I live) are quite a bit more financially stringent - not that it helps us much when the US economy blows up.... But that has happened a lot of times before, and even though I expect the twenties to be a very unpleasant decade (covid made sure of it start out suitable unpleasantly), life will for most people go on as our real production is okay (as long as we are not getting WW3 triggered). Famines due to the Ukrainian war is going to be a much, much bigger problem the next 18-24 months, especially in the poor areas. And in contrast to "money" the thing we call "food" is a hard asset, that is we cannot simply multiply it... Some people (me included) have invested as much as they reasonably can in hard assets - for me since slightly before covid (the trouble already started pre 2020, how much before depends on what you think is the threshold for trouble). But IMHO the cryptos are a totally unworkable system and it is going to cost people who try to secure their money there their last money... But there are certain hard realities in economics also (like gravity, thermodynamics etc in physics). One of them is, that we can by definition not all be wealthy (when compared to each other), even a very large percentage of people are richer today than kings where two centuries ago (if you measure health, food quality etc). Most people would have a much, much better life if they dampened their FOMO and consumed less instead of more...

_5uxp 4y ago

Yes but we it can be more normal and possible time to time, depending on how FED feels. Because there is literally more money and debt in the entire financial system compared to any time in human history so it can make thing less efficent. Unlike made up things like efficient market hypothesis. Nice list but since crypto is fraud etc, historically countries had colonies, slaves and many rich made also this way. Wars were funded by rich, elite or defence industry, recent example is how much arms they left and spend in Afganistan? Why not mention any of those also? am I just wrong?

svennek 4y ago
Sorry, forgot to add "actually robbing" people (of possession or freedom) to the list due to thinking over the last two decades. Look, I don't say that the current financial system isn't in trouble - especially in the US. Most of the EU countries (where I live) are quite a bit more financially stringent - not that it helps us much when the US economy blows up.... But that has happened a lot of times before, and even though I expect the twenties to be a very unpleasant decade (covid made sure of it start out suitable unpleasantly), life will for most people go on as our real production is okay (as long as we are not getting WW3 triggered). Famines due to the Ukrainian war is going to be a much, much bigger problem the next 18-24 months, especially in the poor areas. And in contrast to "money" the thing we call "food" is a hard asset, that is we cannot simply multiply it... Some people (me included) have invested as much as they reasonably can in hard assets - for me since slightly before covid (the trouble already started pre 2020, how much before depends on what you think is the threshold for trouble). But IMHO the cryptos are a totally unworkable system and it is going to cost people who try to secure their money there their last money... But there are certain hard realities in economics also (like gravity, thermodynamics etc in physics). One of them is, that we can by definition not all be wealthy (when compared to each other), even a very large percentage of people are richer today than kings where two centuries ago (if you measure health, food quality etc). Most people would have a much, much better life if they dampened their FOMO and consumed less instead of more...