That is a possible explanation, or at least partial-explanation. It fits nicely with the fact that the unvaccinated are at highest risk, since they likely take

That is a possible explanation, or at least partial-explanation. It fits nicely with the fact that the unvaccinated are at highest risk, since they likely take even fewer precautions. That said, all of the people that I know who still are living under self-imposed lockdown all have the maximum number of doses for which they are eligible. I don't know enough people to be a statistically significant source of info, but you would expect that the group most afraid of covid should be maximally vaccinated. But also it might be that maximally -vaccinated individuals also test most frequently, and between a false-positive rate and just the fact that these days most infections are nearly or completely asymptomatic, they're just testing positive more often and not actually infected more often. It's all very hard to disambiguate, other than that it is clear that vaccine doses given not-recently must not have a large beneficial effect on likelihood to be infected. Likelihood to be hospitalized is potentially different, but that data is a mess too, because we don't collect data on whether the person hospitalized was admitted for covid or was admitted for something else and then tested positive at admission. During the Omicron surge in the winter, Los Angeles county estimated that about 75-80% of those hospitalized were hospitalized for non-covid-related conditions and just happened to also be positive for covid. But that data isn't available with any data quality.