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The analytical side of me doesn't understand how scores on a test that baselines the average to X (in the case of IQ, it is baseline of 100), then distributes t

The analytical side of me doesn't understand how scores on a test that baselines the average to X (in the case of IQ, it is baseline of 100), then distributes them around that baseline on a normal distribution curve can go down over time. The article didn't link data so I can't dig in further. https://personalityanalysistest.com/iq-score/what-is-the-standard-deviation-of-iq-scores-guide/ https://personalityanalysistest.com/iq-score/what-is-the-sta...

Naga 4y ago
The article linked the study though: https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1718793115 https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1718793115
- bretpiatt 4y ago
  Thanks, missed the link, reading study. So many variables here including way the math portion was measured moving to multiple choice in the 1990s when the scores start dropping, hopping on a flight, still skeptical. Other quick one, all 95% confidence interval on data that moves less than +/- 2.5% either way. I understand confidence interval isn't a straight linear margin of error, it one I'd want to also look at further.
zone411 4y ago
The most of obvious way would be to use the same test as previously and just compare the scores.
- throwaway6734 4y ago
  Isn't it possible that changes in education style or focus could bias scores?
  - esja 4y ago
    The first step is to run the same test. The second step is to work out why the results are different (if they are), which might include teaching styles, focus issues, malnutrition, or many other things.
  - staticassertion 4y ago
    > Access to education is currently the most conclusive factor explaining disparities in intelligence, according to Ritchie. In a separate study that has not been released, he and his colleagues looked at existing research in an effort to demonstrate that staying in school longer directly equates to higher IQ scores. > But more research is needed to better understand other environmental factors thought to be linked to intelligence. Robin Morris, a professor of psychology at Kings College in London who was not involved in Ritchie’s research, suggests that traditional measures of intelligence, such as the IQ test, might be outmoded in today’s fast-paced world of constant technological change. > “In my view, we need to recognize that as time changes and people are exposed to different intellectual experiences, such as changes in the use of technology, for example social media, the way intelligence is expressed also changes. Educational methods need to adapt to such changes,” Morris said.
RobertoG 4y ago
20 years ago you would have understood! ;-)
impossiblefork 4y ago
Ḯ've heard that statement from many but I've never understood how they've been able to make this conceptually difficult for themselves: IQ tests measure relative to a reference population. So we can speak of the IQ of a person aged 20 born in 1990 on a test where 100 is the average score at age 20 of the population of those born in 1960, etcetera. Changes in average IQ has been something that has been spoken of in the literature since Flynn was young, back when IQ scores were rising.
- bretpiatt 4y ago
  Okay, I see what you're saying, so we take two sample groups, use one as a baseline, then lay the second group over that curve. So now we need to be really careful about bias in the sample groups. To say IQ scores are dropping and we don't know why then means to me we don't know what variables were the key drivers of the first groups results so we therefore cannot possibly create a consistent second group to measure against the baseline. I'm still stuck but I'm often dense and skeptical on these type of analysis.
  - staticassertion 4y ago
    The tracked increase year over year of IQ over the course of a few decades is largely attributed to wider access to education, I believe.
    - pas 4y ago
      wasn't the IQ of young kids also increasing? which is mostly attributed to better health [both physical and mental] (which is mostly due to better socioeconomic situation in developed countries, so basically the whole post-WW2 upward curve)
  - prepend 4y ago
    > don't know what variables were the key drivers of the first groups results so we therefore cannot possibly create a consistent second group to measure against the baseline. This is why there are practices around statistics sampling and confidence intervals and whatnot. Of course we can’t exactly recreate, that’s impossible, but we can create samples in a way that the results are generalizable in both the baseline and the comparison. And the results are useful. I have a friend who says that it’s impossible to know if we can’t sample 100% (“how can we know how it will work in 100 million if we only test in 1000?”) and it’s frustrating how just basic concepts of math and statistics make it hard for them to accept any research.
Frost1x 4y ago
The average can vary from a given sample set over time and be used as a comparison. For a statement like "IQs are going up/down" you could probably get away with simply monitoring the average over time. If you start digging around to see that you're fairly comparing the groups then you'll almost always be able to split hairs. Most statistics outside of a theoretical context are flawed if you poke them hard enough.
sinenomine 4y ago
It is remarkably obvious if you look at Tryon's experiment[1], and remember the Nature Genetics meta-analysis[2] proving average 49% heritability among all measured human traits. 1. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tryon%27s_Rat_Experiment https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tryon%27s_Rat_Experiment 2. https://www.nature.com/articles/ng.3285 https://www.nature.com/articles/ng.3285

Naga 4y ago

The article linked the study though: https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1718793115 https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1718793115

bretpiatt 4y ago
Thanks, missed the link, reading study. So many variables here including way the math portion was measured moving to multiple choice in the 1990s when the scores start dropping, hopping on a flight, still skeptical. Other quick one, all 95% confidence interval on data that moves less than +/- 2.5% either way. I understand confidence interval isn't a straight linear margin of error, it one I'd want to also look at further.

zone411 4y ago

The most of obvious way would be to use the same test as previously and just compare the scores.

throwaway6734 4y ago
Isn't it possible that changes in education style or focus could bias scores?
- esja 4y ago
  The first step is to run the same test. The second step is to work out why the results are different (if they are), which might include teaching styles, focus issues, malnutrition, or many other things.
- staticassertion 4y ago
  > Access to education is currently the most conclusive factor explaining disparities in intelligence, according to Ritchie. In a separate study that has not been released, he and his colleagues looked at existing research in an effort to demonstrate that staying in school longer directly equates to higher IQ scores. > But more research is needed to better understand other environmental factors thought to be linked to intelligence. Robin Morris, a professor of psychology at Kings College in London who was not involved in Ritchie’s research, suggests that traditional measures of intelligence, such as the IQ test, might be outmoded in today’s fast-paced world of constant technological change. > “In my view, we need to recognize that as time changes and people are exposed to different intellectual experiences, such as changes in the use of technology, for example social media, the way intelligence is expressed also changes. Educational methods need to adapt to such changes,” Morris said.

RobertoG 4y ago

20 years ago you would have understood! ;-)

impossiblefork 4y ago

Ḯ've heard that statement from many but I've never understood how they've been able to make this conceptually difficult for themselves: IQ tests measure relative to a reference population. So we can speak of the IQ of a person aged 20 born in 1990 on a test where 100 is the average score at age 20 of the population of those born in 1960, etcetera. Changes in average IQ has been something that has been spoken of in the literature since Flynn was young, back when IQ scores were rising.

bretpiatt 4y ago
Okay, I see what you're saying, so we take two sample groups, use one as a baseline, then lay the second group over that curve. So now we need to be really careful about bias in the sample groups. To say IQ scores are dropping and we don't know why then means to me we don't know what variables were the key drivers of the first groups results so we therefore cannot possibly create a consistent second group to measure against the baseline. I'm still stuck but I'm often dense and skeptical on these type of analysis.
- staticassertion 4y ago
  The tracked increase year over year of IQ over the course of a few decades is largely attributed to wider access to education, I believe.
  - pas 4y ago
    wasn't the IQ of young kids also increasing? which is mostly attributed to better health [both physical and mental] (which is mostly due to better socioeconomic situation in developed countries, so basically the whole post-WW2 upward curve)
- prepend 4y ago
  > don't know what variables were the key drivers of the first groups results so we therefore cannot possibly create a consistent second group to measure against the baseline. This is why there are practices around statistics sampling and confidence intervals and whatnot. Of course we can’t exactly recreate, that’s impossible, but we can create samples in a way that the results are generalizable in both the baseline and the comparison. And the results are useful. I have a friend who says that it’s impossible to know if we can’t sample 100% (“how can we know how it will work in 100 million if we only test in 1000?”) and it’s frustrating how just basic concepts of math and statistics make it hard for them to accept any research.

Frost1x 4y ago

The average can vary from a given sample set over time and be used as a comparison. For a statement like "IQs are going up/down" you could probably get away with simply monitoring the average over time. If you start digging around to see that you're fairly comparing the groups then you'll almost always be able to split hairs. Most statistics outside of a theoretical context are flawed if you poke them hard enough.

sinenomine 4y ago

It is remarkably obvious if you look at Tryon's experiment[1], and remember the Nature Genetics meta-analysis[2] proving average 49% heritability among all measured human traits. 1. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tryon%27s_Rat_Experiment https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tryon%27s_Rat_Experiment 2. https://www.nature.com/articles/ng.3285 https://www.nature.com/articles/ng.3285