4 ms·

This reminded me of the famous 1993 paper by Sagan et al[1] where they used the Galileo probe to try to detect life on Earth through analysing the spectra of th

This reminded me of the famous 1993 paper by Sagan et al[1] where they used the Galileo probe to try to detect life on Earth through analysing the spectra of the athmosphere and detecting chemical concentrations that could only be explained by life(or that's the hope anyway). For me the most exciting prospect of the JWST is the ability to analyse the spectra of atmospheres around exoplanets. We could have tantalising evidence of extrasolar life in just a few years. [1]: https://www.nature.com/articles/365715a0 https://www.nature.com/articles/365715a0

Maursault 4y ago
> We could have tantalising evidence of extrasolar life in just a few years. Isn't the math tantalizing enough? Spoiler: there is.
- Georgelemental 4y ago
  How exactly? Sure, space is astronomically big, but maybe life is equally astronomically unlikely. We just don't know
  - Maursault 4y ago
    > maybe life is equally astronomically unlikely All evidence points to the contrary. Once you have conditions that support life, given time and entropy, inevitably there is life. I don't think finding life out there is much of a going concern. But I think maybe whether there is Intelligent Life™ out there, is. Even if Earth is the first evolution of life in the Universe, it is too late, it's going to be everywhere it can be eventually, because waterbears can survive space (and God knows what else), and sometimes things hit Earth and knock off parts with waterbears, given enough times, one of those is then bound to hit another Goldilocks planet, and there you have it.
    - mtlmtlmtlmtl 4y ago
      The problem with this is we just don't know how likely abiogenesis actually is. We can make vague guesses based on very general things like the abundance of certain elements. At the end of the day though, we just don't know how many factors were necessary for the formation of life on earth(or indeed whether it formed on Earth in the first place). There could be any series of unlikely characteristics about our solar system and the Earth that were all necessary for life. One example is the Earth's unusually large moon, likely caused by the Earth colliding with another planet during the formation of the solar system. Another is the seemingly unusual variety in types and sizes of planets within the solar system(see the Grand Tack Hypothesis), and the effect of Jupiter shielding the Earth from massive meteor bombardment. Sure, maybe it's highly unlikely that life exists only on Earth. But even so, the question of just how common it is is very interesting. As for tardigrades, note that they've been shown to be able to survive 10 days in space. That's a far cry from being able to survive an interstellar journey, land on a planet, survive and multiply as the only species on said planet, etc. Extrapolating all this from surviving space for 10 days in an experiment is a pretty big leap. And indeed, I've never heard a scientist dismiss the importance of discovering extrasolar life as "not much of a concern" I find this view utterly absurd.
      - Maursault 4y ago
        Some fair points. But I still feel like as the window of opportunity increases, now at possibly 5By and counting, and extends as long as we don't extinct life on Earth, and future intelligent life to solve the problem of the Sun eventually dying, time just keeps on slipping into the future dragging the opportunity and possibility of abiogenesis with it until our galaxy's red dwarves burn out. So it just seems inevitable short of the annihilation of all life on Earth, and even then there's already been lots of possible.

Maursault 4y ago

> We could have tantalising evidence of extrasolar life in just a few years. Isn't the math tantalizing enough? Spoiler: there is.

Georgelemental 4y ago
How exactly? Sure, space is astronomically big, but maybe life is equally astronomically unlikely. We just don't know
- Maursault 4y ago
  > maybe life is equally astronomically unlikely All evidence points to the contrary. Once you have conditions that support life, given time and entropy, inevitably there is life. I don't think finding life out there is much of a going concern. But I think maybe whether there is Intelligent Life™ out there, is. Even if Earth is the first evolution of life in the Universe, it is too late, it's going to be everywhere it can be eventually, because waterbears can survive space (and God knows what else), and sometimes things hit Earth and knock off parts with waterbears, given enough times, one of those is then bound to hit another Goldilocks planet, and there you have it.
  - mtlmtlmtlmtl 4y ago
    The problem with this is we just don't know how likely abiogenesis actually is. We can make vague guesses based on very general things like the abundance of certain elements. At the end of the day though, we just don't know how many factors were necessary for the formation of life on earth(or indeed whether it formed on Earth in the first place). There could be any series of unlikely characteristics about our solar system and the Earth that were all necessary for life. One example is the Earth's unusually large moon, likely caused by the Earth colliding with another planet during the formation of the solar system. Another is the seemingly unusual variety in types and sizes of planets within the solar system(see the Grand Tack Hypothesis), and the effect of Jupiter shielding the Earth from massive meteor bombardment. Sure, maybe it's highly unlikely that life exists only on Earth. But even so, the question of just how common it is is very interesting. As for tardigrades, note that they've been shown to be able to survive 10 days in space. That's a far cry from being able to survive an interstellar journey, land on a planet, survive and multiply as the only species on said planet, etc. Extrapolating all this from surviving space for 10 days in an experiment is a pretty big leap. And indeed, I've never heard a scientist dismiss the importance of discovering extrasolar life as "not much of a concern" I find this view utterly absurd.
    - Maursault 4y ago
      Some fair points. But I still feel like as the window of opportunity increases, now at possibly 5By and counting, and extends as long as we don't extinct life on Earth, and future intelligent life to solve the problem of the Sun eventually dying, time just keeps on slipping into the future dragging the opportunity and possibility of abiogenesis with it until our galaxy's red dwarves burn out. So it just seems inevitable short of the annihilation of all life on Earth, and even then there's already been lots of possible.