> why did Russia retreat from Kyiv? Russia tried for a headshot with an airborne insertion and a small number of paratroopers. There were with multiple proble

> why did Russia retreat from Kyiv? Russia tried for a headshot with an airborne insertion and a small number of paratroopers. There were with multiple problems with what happened though. They did not have air superiority, so they lost IL-76s carrying paratroopers [1]. Those paratroopers never made it to the airport. The force was too small for an airfield seizure, and they didn't have sufficient planes in the first place, for the size of the force they needed on the ground. Once on the ground, the AFU reinforced the airport and was bringing armor to bear. Since the battle was lost already, at that point they needed to disengage, and so they did, to the extent they were capable. As a former American paratrooper, I'd say the plan was not sound, the execution too small, the forces insufficient, and the preconditions with air control were never met. A risky gamble that failed. American tactics around airfield seizure are brute force numbers - hence why we practice "mass tacticals", where we insert an entire division of paratroopers for a singular airfield. We also have an Air Force that we train with, great combined arms, and the planes to put all of us in the air at once. An American plan would have also had Main Battle Tanks coming in via C-5s, and the prickly swarm of manpads, javelins, and TOWs for which we are known. > and now seemingly retreat from Kharkiv? Tactical withdrawal from Kharkov makes sense as the Russian Army is mobile, and they can exploit their mobility & logistics advantages through force repositioning at will, while constraining the AFU ability to do likewise. > What would it take for you to change your mind to believe Russia is not actually winning? Thus far, all the major engagements seem to be driven by Russian attacks across the AO. While the Russians may not have succeeded in all their attacks, they have made captures of well-defended territory and routed defenders (example: Mariupol). Russians appear advantaged in everything but anti-tank weaponry from the West. If I saw a true largescale counter-attack (not a defense) that broke the Russian lines and caused a true rout, and Ukrainian armor mobility on the attack, then I would believe this war could be won by the Western Ukrainians. I say Western Ukrainians as the DPR & LPR are the Eastern Ukrainians united with Russia, and working with the Russians. However, we haven't seen this yet because I don't know that the Eastern Ukrainians have sufficient armor to mount a truly effective counter-attack. Given the huge amount of Russian strikes against AFU logistics though, I don't give the AFU much time. No fuel, no ammo supplies, no motor pools, no ability to move troops, no weapon systems left. The AFU conscripts don't appear hungry for a fight anyways, though the Azov / Right Sektor types do. [1] https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/30332-tw-russian-il-76-transport-planes-shot-down-reports https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/30332-tw-russian-il-76-tr...