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> __completely__ insane. It isn't completely insane. First off, it isn't irrational to allocate an excessive amount of capital to sustainability. The meme th
by JoshCole 4y ago
> __completely__ insane.
It isn't completely insane.
First off, it isn't irrational to allocate an excessive amount of capital to sustainability. The meme that this level of provision is short-sighted is myopic to the extreme, because obviously over the long term it is failure to be sustainable, not being sustainable, which is myopic. Perhaps it is overvalued, but calling it completely insane goes a bit too far.
Second, you are obviously right that the present value of their assets doesn't justify their current price, but it is hubris to try and claim that their is no future in which their revenues can justify their increased valuation. Think ahead to the future while skipping the steps to get there and we are obviously incredibly likely to exist in a world in which AI and automated labor is commonplace, in which energy is provided through renewable means, and in which transport from point to point is handled by electric vehicles. It is not __completely insane__ to think Tesla might play a large role in this future. It is quite reasonable to expect they would. Their present course has them explicitly targeting playing a very large role in that sort of future. They have been making progress and inroads in playing that role. They are on track to play that role and can play it if they execute successfully. Whether they do, that is another question, but whether the potential exists? It certainly seems to exist.
A lot of times people point at automakers when they try to justify calling Tesla overvalued. The idea that Tesla wouldn't be larger than that industry is silly. That industry spent billions on building out manufacturing capabilities. They took on debt in order to create products which the market doesn't believe will be viable in the future. The projected value of those companies has to account for that and obviously they aren't going to be valued as highly as they might be if they weren't burdened with those liabilities. Perhaps you don't know this, but a few years back legacy automakers were struggling with dealers who would intentionally sabotage the ability to sell electric vehicles by giving test drives in vehicles which were intentionally left without charge. Perhaps you don't know this, but dealers have laws in place to protect them from car companies which force legacy car companies to use them despite the way the perverse incentives could spell the death of the ICE auto industry. There are real structural reasons to value these companies as being less able than Tesla to flourish. Thinking this is the case isn't completely insane.