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> having lost enormous volumes of military equipment? Any military operation includes the planning for acceptable losses in combat. We keep on hearing about s

> having lost enormous volumes of military equipment? Any military operation includes the planning for acceptable losses in combat. We keep on hearing about ships getting destroyed, that were not, then re-emerging. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/05/09/a-journalist-just-spotted-russias-admiral-makarov-frigate-intact-and-at-sea/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/05/09/a-journalis... We don't know how much Russian military equipment has been destroyed, but it appears to be some. We do know a large amount of Ukrainian military equipment has been destroyed also, and that Ukrainian logistics are on the receiving end of Russian airpower and tactical ballistic missiles (iskanders). In most cases, Russians have established some level of air advantage, artillery superiority, and missile superiority (iskanders > Tochkas). Logistically, the Ukrainians are losing this war in a big way.

AtlasBarfed 4y ago
Oh, does Russia have air superiority now? I hadn't read that. Logistically they are losing? So the Russians fled Kyiv not due to logistics problems? Is it true Ukraine is shelling Russian bases in Russia now? From a strategic position, and that's what logistics is over a war, Russia is almost guaranteed to lose the logistics war. Because the first pillar of logistics is funding/money/finance. The West can afford to arm Ukraine in perpetuity, while Russia cannot wage this war forever. They can't even afford to wage it for a half a year I would guess. Ukraine will only get more experienced, better equipped, and train more soldiers. The West will greenlight more and more weapons systems. Strategically from the West's standpoint, this is THE opportunity to neuter Putin and Russia. To bring them to their knees of their own stubbornness, delusions, and stupidity. Even a fractured US Senate can recognize the common goal of supplying Ukraine with arms. All they have to do is provide a fraction of the US military budget, greenlight arms shipments to arms makers, and get a metric fuckton of usable intelligence, weapons testing, and tactical information for modern drone warfare. Ukraine is 44 million people. Russia is 144 million people. 44 Million defenders + Western funding vs 144 million people (the vast majority not invading) and bankruptcy.
oneoff786 4y ago
I ask again if Ukraine is losing the war in a big way, why did Russia retreat from Kyiv, and now seemingly retreat from Kharkiv? What would it take for you to change your mind to believe Russia is not actually winning? Loss of Izium? Loss of Kherson?
- OrvalWintermute 4y ago
  > why did Russia retreat from Kyiv? Russia tried for a headshot with an airborne insertion and a small number of paratroopers. There were with multiple problems with what happened though. They did not have air superiority, so they lost IL-76s carrying paratroopers [1]. Those paratroopers never made it to the airport. The force was too small for an airfield seizure, and they didn't have sufficient planes in the first place, for the size of the force they needed on the ground. Once on the ground, the AFU reinforced the airport and was bringing armor to bear. Since the battle was lost already, at that point they needed to disengage, and so they did, to the extent they were capable. As a former American paratrooper, I'd say the plan was not sound, the execution too small, the forces insufficient, and the preconditions with air control were never met. A risky gamble that failed. American tactics around airfield seizure are brute force numbers - hence why we practice "mass tacticals", where we insert an entire division of paratroopers for a singular airfield. We also have an Air Force that we train with, great combined arms, and the planes to put all of us in the air at once. An American plan would have also had Main Battle Tanks coming in via C-5s, and the prickly swarm of manpads, javelins, and TOWs for which we are known. > and now seemingly retreat from Kharkiv? Tactical withdrawal from Kharkov makes sense as the Russian Army is mobile, and they can exploit their mobility & logistics advantages through force repositioning at will, while constraining the AFU ability to do likewise. > What would it take for you to change your mind to believe Russia is not actually winning? Thus far, all the major engagements seem to be driven by Russian attacks across the AO. While the Russians may not have succeeded in all their attacks, they have made captures of well-defended territory and routed defenders (example: Mariupol). Russians appear advantaged in everything but anti-tank weaponry from the West. If I saw a true largescale counter-attack (not a defense) that broke the Russian lines and caused a true rout, and Ukrainian armor mobility on the attack, then I would believe this war could be won by the Western Ukrainians. I say Western Ukrainians as the DPR & LPR are the Eastern Ukrainians united with Russia, and working with the Russians. However, we haven't seen this yet because I don't know that the Eastern Ukrainians have sufficient armor to mount a truly effective counter-attack. Given the huge amount of Russian strikes against AFU logistics though, I don't give the AFU much time. No fuel, no ammo supplies, no motor pools, no ability to move troops, no weapon systems left. The AFU conscripts don't appear hungry for a fight anyways, though the Azov / Right Sektor types do. [1] https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/30332-tw-russian-il-76-transport-planes-shot-down-reports https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/30332-tw-russian-il-76-tr...

AtlasBarfed 4y ago

Oh, does Russia have air superiority now? I hadn't read that. Logistically they are losing? So the Russians fled Kyiv not due to logistics problems? Is it true Ukraine is shelling Russian bases in Russia now? From a strategic position, and that's what logistics is over a war, Russia is almost guaranteed to lose the logistics war. Because the first pillar of logistics is funding/money/finance. The West can afford to arm Ukraine in perpetuity, while Russia cannot wage this war forever. They can't even afford to wage it for a half a year I would guess. Ukraine will only get more experienced, better equipped, and train more soldiers. The West will greenlight more and more weapons systems. Strategically from the West's standpoint, this is THE opportunity to neuter Putin and Russia. To bring them to their knees of their own stubbornness, delusions, and stupidity. Even a fractured US Senate can recognize the common goal of supplying Ukraine with arms. All they have to do is provide a fraction of the US military budget, greenlight arms shipments to arms makers, and get a metric fuckton of usable intelligence, weapons testing, and tactical information for modern drone warfare. Ukraine is 44 million people. Russia is 144 million people. 44 Million defenders + Western funding vs 144 million people (the vast majority not invading) and bankruptcy.

oneoff786 4y ago

I ask again if Ukraine is losing the war in a big way, why did Russia retreat from Kyiv, and now seemingly retreat from Kharkiv? What would it take for you to change your mind to believe Russia is not actually winning? Loss of Izium? Loss of Kherson?

OrvalWintermute 4y ago
> why did Russia retreat from Kyiv? Russia tried for a headshot with an airborne insertion and a small number of paratroopers. There were with multiple problems with what happened though. They did not have air superiority, so they lost IL-76s carrying paratroopers [1]. Those paratroopers never made it to the airport. The force was too small for an airfield seizure, and they didn't have sufficient planes in the first place, for the size of the force they needed on the ground. Once on the ground, the AFU reinforced the airport and was bringing armor to bear. Since the battle was lost already, at that point they needed to disengage, and so they did, to the extent they were capable. As a former American paratrooper, I'd say the plan was not sound, the execution too small, the forces insufficient, and the preconditions with air control were never met. A risky gamble that failed. American tactics around airfield seizure are brute force numbers - hence why we practice "mass tacticals", where we insert an entire division of paratroopers for a singular airfield. We also have an Air Force that we train with, great combined arms, and the planes to put all of us in the air at once. An American plan would have also had Main Battle Tanks coming in via C-5s, and the prickly swarm of manpads, javelins, and TOWs for which we are known. > and now seemingly retreat from Kharkiv? Tactical withdrawal from Kharkov makes sense as the Russian Army is mobile, and they can exploit their mobility & logistics advantages through force repositioning at will, while constraining the AFU ability to do likewise. > What would it take for you to change your mind to believe Russia is not actually winning? Thus far, all the major engagements seem to be driven by Russian attacks across the AO. While the Russians may not have succeeded in all their attacks, they have made captures of well-defended territory and routed defenders (example: Mariupol). Russians appear advantaged in everything but anti-tank weaponry from the West. If I saw a true largescale counter-attack (not a defense) that broke the Russian lines and caused a true rout, and Ukrainian armor mobility on the attack, then I would believe this war could be won by the Western Ukrainians. I say Western Ukrainians as the DPR & LPR are the Eastern Ukrainians united with Russia, and working with the Russians. However, we haven't seen this yet because I don't know that the Eastern Ukrainians have sufficient armor to mount a truly effective counter-attack. Given the huge amount of Russian strikes against AFU logistics though, I don't give the AFU much time. No fuel, no ammo supplies, no motor pools, no ability to move troops, no weapon systems left. The AFU conscripts don't appear hungry for a fight anyways, though the Azov / Right Sektor types do. [1] https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/30332-tw-russian-il-76-transport-planes-shot-down-reports https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/30332-tw-russian-il-76-tr...