3 ms·

All else being equal, a factor 3 seems reasonable. But as usual all else isn’t equal. Another crude but often cited “formula” is the one that says the effective

All else being equal, a factor 3 seems reasonable. But as usual all else isn’t equal. Another crude but often cited “formula” is the one that says the effectiveness of a force is the means multiplied by the will (this one has many variations, from Clausewitz to Smith and others). I think it’s safe to say that the will of a defender called to defend their homeland versus that of a soldier who spent a month in a muddy trench unaware that he was going to take the offensive part in an invasion - is going to be quite different.

inglor_cz 4y ago
Famously, the Incan emperor Atahualpa had a lot more men than the Spanish conquistador Pizarro, and these soldiers were survivors of a major civil war with his brother Huascar, thus almost certainly very skilled. But the technological edge of the Europeans, plus the initial terror of the Incan soldiers unused to firearms, more than offset the 40:1 force ratio that Atahualpa enjoyed at the beginning of the battle of Cajamarca. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Cajamarca https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Cajamarca
- adolph 4y ago
  My read of it is that Cajamarca wasn't about force ratio but coup d'etat effects. Shortly before sunset Atahualpa left the armed warriors who had accompanied him on an open meadow about half a mile outside Cajamarca. His immediate party still numbered over seven thousand but were unarmed except for small battle axes intended for show. However, the shock of the Spanish attack —coupled with the spiritual significance of losing the Sapa Inca and most of his commanders in one blow—apparently shattered the army's morale, throwing its ranks into terror and initiating a massive rout.
- anamax 4y ago
  Were the Spanish alone, or did they have local help? Cortes had lots of local help against the Aztecs. (Other tribes didn't much like the Aztecs. Cortes started a preference cascade.)
  - inglor_cz 4y ago
    Cortes had a lot of military help from other nations such as the Tlaxcalans, true. Pizarro, not so much. The Incas weren't as universally hated as the Aztecs and in fact their state lingered on for decades (a rump one around Vilcabamba) after the initial conquest of Cuzco. What certainly helped him was something unintended - the bloody civil war of succession between Atahualpa and Huascar that sapped a lot of strength and cohesion from the empire. Contemporaries described the main battlefield of that civil war as "full of bones as far as an eye can see".

inglor_cz 4y ago

Famously, the Incan emperor Atahualpa had a lot more men than the Spanish conquistador Pizarro, and these soldiers were survivors of a major civil war with his brother Huascar, thus almost certainly very skilled. But the technological edge of the Europeans, plus the initial terror of the Incan soldiers unused to firearms, more than offset the 40:1 force ratio that Atahualpa enjoyed at the beginning of the battle of Cajamarca. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Cajamarca https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Cajamarca

adolph 4y ago
My read of it is that Cajamarca wasn't about force ratio but coup d'etat effects. Shortly before sunset Atahualpa left the armed warriors who had accompanied him on an open meadow about half a mile outside Cajamarca. His immediate party still numbered over seven thousand but were unarmed except for small battle axes intended for show. However, the shock of the Spanish attack —coupled with the spiritual significance of losing the Sapa Inca and most of his commanders in one blow—apparently shattered the army's morale, throwing its ranks into terror and initiating a massive rout.
anamax 4y ago
Were the Spanish alone, or did they have local help? Cortes had lots of local help against the Aztecs. (Other tribes didn't much like the Aztecs. Cortes started a preference cascade.)
- inglor_cz 4y ago
  Cortes had a lot of military help from other nations such as the Tlaxcalans, true. Pizarro, not so much. The Incas weren't as universally hated as the Aztecs and in fact their state lingered on for decades (a rump one around Vilcabamba) after the initial conquest of Cuzco. What certainly helped him was something unintended - the bloody civil war of succession between Atahualpa and Huascar that sapped a lot of strength and cohesion from the empire. Contemporaries described the main battlefield of that civil war as "full of bones as far as an eye can see".