4 ms·

As Benedict Evans said, Elon breaks our mental model of productive people because he is a bullshitter who delivers.

by pyb 4y ago

andrepd 4y ago
Delivers? Hardly. Autonomous driving? Hyperloop? The tunnel thing?
- inglor_cz 4y ago
  As of today, some Ukrainians are alive (and some Russians dead) because of Starlink. Not a small feat, to substantially influence the progress of a major war between European powers. Few businesses aside from manufacturers of weapons can claim something like that.
- Sebb767 4y ago
  Cheap space launches, fast satellite internet and arguably the car company that made EVs a commodity. He also invested a lot of money in the things you mentioned and, as far as I'm aware, none of those is canceled. He promises a lot, but to say he didn't also achieve a lot would be lying.
  - hef19898 4y ago
    I agree woth Tesla, it accelerated the EV market by a couple of years. Without a model considerably cheaper than 30k USD so Tesla is far from being a commodity. Not sure how much cheaper SpaceX launches are for comparable payloads and orbits. I'd suspect they are, with e.g. Ariane developed for other thongs than LEO launches. As SpaceX isn't public wr don't have any reliable numbers. Based on some old leaked material, it is less than sure whether or not SpaceX is coonsiderably cheaper than the competition. Regardless, SpaceX is impressive. If Starlink is actually sustainable and profitable has to be seen, it could as well just be a way to push SpaceX profitabiliy further down the road through a Starlink IPO. Now way to tell either way.
    - Sebb767 4y ago
      > Not sure how much cheaper SpaceX launches are for comparable payloads and orbits. I'd suspect they are, with e.g. Ariane developed for other thongs than LEO launches. The direct competitor to SpaceX is the Space Launch System [0], with a cost of over two billion per launch. SpaceX charges below 100M$ [1] (and has cheaper options available [2]) and you can actually buy it right now (EDIT: although it's true that Ariane is in the same ballpark). > If Starlink is actually sustainable and profitable has to be seen, it could as well just be a way to push SpaceX profitabiliy further down the road through a Starlink IPO. Now way to tell either way. Whether a business can survive in the long term is never 100%. Still, you, as an average consumer, can order a satellite dish and get fast and mostly reliable internet for a reasonable-ish price right now. I'd say that checks as delivered. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System [1] https://www.spacex.com/media/Capabilities&Services.pdf https://www.spacex.com/media/Capabilities&Services.pdf [2] https://www.spacex.com/rideshare/ https://www.spacex.com/rideshare/
      - hef19898 4y ago
        https://www.seradata.com/arianespace-lowers-ariane-5-launch-price-to-combat-spacex-in-asia-pacific-contest/ https://www.seradata.com/arianespace-lowers-ariane-5-launch-... You forgot Ariane Space. And the 100 million ballpark numbet is for Ariane 5, a rocket initially developed for a European shuttle program and not commercial, cheap satelite launches. Edit: Starlonk is cheaper than alternative satelite provoders. Whether or not this is selling dollars for cents is the question, one that cannot be answered by Starlonk's existence itself.
      - pclmulqdq 4y ago
        SLS is a new rocket and you are comparing its development cost to the launch cost of a SpaceX rocket without its R&D cost. Ariane V, delta, and soyuz launches are all cheaper per kilogram than SpaceX.
        Sebb767 4y ago
        > SLS is a new rocket and you are comparing its development cost to the launch cost of a SpaceX rocket without its R&D cost. Look on Wikipedia, the sideboard quotes cost per launch as: > Over US$2 billion excluding development (estimate) I'm not aware of the pricing of Soyuz and Ariane V, though.
  - andrepd 4y ago
    SpaceX isn't that much cheaper than Ariane. Satellite internet existed before Starlink. Electric cars existed before Tesla (of course) and many manufacturers offer more affordable EVs.
    - squidbeak 4y ago
      But it is cheaper?
- sidibe 4y ago
  He delivers a lot of announcements for future projects.
  - inglor_cz 4y ago
    You can buy a Tesla, a Starlink connection, or a launch of your satellite on Falcon 9 if you need it and have enough money. These are real, existing, widely used products.
    - hef19898 4y ago
      And you could buy a luxury car before Tesla, and you can choose your lixury EV from all konds of brands now. Satelite internet existed before, ground based fibre usually is the better solution in most cases, there is a reason satelite communication is expensive when done by everyone else. And the Russians, Ariane,... happily sold launches to anyone before SpaceX.
      - inglor_cz 4y ago
        True, true, true, and yet not the entire story, because if all the previous products were better than those ones, those would have failed. There is a lot of automotive or space companies that have gone bankrupt and no one even remembers them anymore. Innovation does not mean only "coming up with something never yet seen". This is rare. Innovation also means making things more streamlined, efficient, more widely available, more capable. Starlink is a huge boon in places like Mariupol right now. Its capability matters, even though a random person from London can get cheaper service by fibre.
    - sidibe 4y ago
      You can also for many years now preorder Cybertruck and Roadster which are just around the corner or pay $12k to turn your car into a robotaxi very soon I swear. How many years have they been about to use dojo? There's also just plain embarrassing stuff like Boring Company and that half thought out robot idea that he announced before they'd even started looking into it. He does have a few hits but I feel like recently he's just throwing stuff out there with no follow through at all just to keep up his image
- Ensorceled 4y ago
  Oh, come on. Zip2, PayPal, Tesla, SpaceX. I mean, I don't think he's Tony Stark either, but stop cherry picking.
  - anonymousab 4y ago
    That's the point though. He is very far from perfect and has as much of a record for highly ambitious projects failing altogether as he does for them succeeding. On the positive side, his ratio of successes to failures probably beats out most people, and his failures probably haven't done too much societal harm (especially compared to the good done by his successes). But it's still not a good idea to treat any of his announcements or ideas as anything near a sure thing. His bullshitting still has a fairly high chance of turning out as bullshit.
    - Ensorceled 4y ago
      But this could be said of any successful person: "Steve Jobs delivers? Ha! The Lisa, Apple III, Pixar Computer, Next Computer. Checkmate!"
- corobo 4y ago
  Unpredictable rewards create obsession, it all tracks. He’d probably be less popular if he actually delivered 100% More background if you’ve not come across intermittent reinforcement https://www.nirandfar.com/want-to-hook-your-users-drive-them-crazy/ https://www.nirandfar.com/want-to-hook-your-users-drive-them...
- squidbeak 4y ago
  I'm not immediately clear why the guy shouldn't have personal moonshot projects, pursued alongside more conventionally realistic ideas?
smt88 4y ago
He delivers very little of what he promises. Most of his ideas aren't even something anyone should deliver. Hyperloop and Boring Company are terrible ideas. Meanwhile everything else is over-promise/under-deliver.
- ben_w 4y ago
  If I measured by the standards I have for myself, then I would agree he overpromises and underdelivers. Compared to the marketing bluster I see from the old aerospace companies and greenwashing from older car companies, however, he’s a spectacular breath of fresh air with his honesty, openness, and willingness to say things have a less than 100% chance of success. And I say that despite agreeing with you about Hyperloop and TBC.
- fourseventy 4y ago

As Benedict Evans said, Elon breaks our mental model of productive people because he is a bullshitter who delivers.

by pyb 4y ago

As Benedict Evans said, Elon breaks our mental model of productive people because he is a bullshitter who delivers.

andrepd 4y ago

Delivers? Hardly. Autonomous driving? Hyperloop? The tunnel thing?

inglor_cz 4y ago
As of today, some Ukrainians are alive (and some Russians dead) because of Starlink. Not a small feat, to substantially influence the progress of a major war between European powers. Few businesses aside from manufacturers of weapons can claim something like that.
Sebb767 4y ago
Cheap space launches, fast satellite internet and arguably the car company that made EVs a commodity. He also invested a lot of money in the things you mentioned and, as far as I'm aware, none of those is canceled. He promises a lot, but to say he didn't also achieve a lot would be lying.
- hef19898 4y ago
  I agree woth Tesla, it accelerated the EV market by a couple of years. Without a model considerably cheaper than 30k USD so Tesla is far from being a commodity. Not sure how much cheaper SpaceX launches are for comparable payloads and orbits. I'd suspect they are, with e.g. Ariane developed for other thongs than LEO launches. As SpaceX isn't public wr don't have any reliable numbers. Based on some old leaked material, it is less than sure whether or not SpaceX is coonsiderably cheaper than the competition. Regardless, SpaceX is impressive. If Starlink is actually sustainable and profitable has to be seen, it could as well just be a way to push SpaceX profitabiliy further down the road through a Starlink IPO. Now way to tell either way.
  - Sebb767 4y ago
    > Not sure how much cheaper SpaceX launches are for comparable payloads and orbits. I'd suspect they are, with e.g. Ariane developed for other thongs than LEO launches. The direct competitor to SpaceX is the Space Launch System [0], with a cost of over two billion per launch. SpaceX charges below 100M$ [1] (and has cheaper options available [2]) and you can actually buy it right now (EDIT: although it's true that Ariane is in the same ballpark). > If Starlink is actually sustainable and profitable has to be seen, it could as well just be a way to push SpaceX profitabiliy further down the road through a Starlink IPO. Now way to tell either way. Whether a business can survive in the long term is never 100%. Still, you, as an average consumer, can order a satellite dish and get fast and mostly reliable internet for a reasonable-ish price right now. I'd say that checks as delivered. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System [1] https://www.spacex.com/media/Capabilities&Services.pdf https://www.spacex.com/media/Capabilities&Services.pdf [2] https://www.spacex.com/rideshare/ https://www.spacex.com/rideshare/
    - hef19898 4y ago
      https://www.seradata.com/arianespace-lowers-ariane-5-launch-price-to-combat-spacex-in-asia-pacific-contest/ https://www.seradata.com/arianespace-lowers-ariane-5-launch-... You forgot Ariane Space. And the 100 million ballpark numbet is for Ariane 5, a rocket initially developed for a European shuttle program and not commercial, cheap satelite launches. Edit: Starlonk is cheaper than alternative satelite provoders. Whether or not this is selling dollars for cents is the question, one that cannot be answered by Starlonk's existence itself.
    - pclmulqdq 4y ago
      SLS is a new rocket and you are comparing its development cost to the launch cost of a SpaceX rocket without its R&D cost. Ariane V, delta, and soyuz launches are all cheaper per kilogram than SpaceX.
      - Sebb767 4y ago
        > SLS is a new rocket and you are comparing its development cost to the launch cost of a SpaceX rocket without its R&D cost. Look on Wikipedia, the sideboard quotes cost per launch as: > Over US$2 billion excluding development (estimate) I'm not aware of the pricing of Soyuz and Ariane V, though.
- andrepd 4y ago
  SpaceX isn't that much cheaper than Ariane. Satellite internet existed before Starlink. Electric cars existed before Tesla (of course) and many manufacturers offer more affordable EVs.
  - squidbeak 4y ago
    But it is cheaper?
sidibe 4y ago
He delivers a lot of announcements for future projects.
- inglor_cz 4y ago
  You can buy a Tesla, a Starlink connection, or a launch of your satellite on Falcon 9 if you need it and have enough money. These are real, existing, widely used products.
  - hef19898 4y ago
    And you could buy a luxury car before Tesla, and you can choose your lixury EV from all konds of brands now. Satelite internet existed before, ground based fibre usually is the better solution in most cases, there is a reason satelite communication is expensive when done by everyone else. And the Russians, Ariane,... happily sold launches to anyone before SpaceX.
    - inglor_cz 4y ago
      True, true, true, and yet not the entire story, because if all the previous products were better than those ones, those would have failed. There is a lot of automotive or space companies that have gone bankrupt and no one even remembers them anymore. Innovation does not mean only "coming up with something never yet seen". This is rare. Innovation also means making things more streamlined, efficient, more widely available, more capable. Starlink is a huge boon in places like Mariupol right now. Its capability matters, even though a random person from London can get cheaper service by fibre.
  - sidibe 4y ago
    You can also for many years now preorder Cybertruck and Roadster which are just around the corner or pay $12k to turn your car into a robotaxi very soon I swear. How many years have they been about to use dojo? There's also just plain embarrassing stuff like Boring Company and that half thought out robot idea that he announced before they'd even started looking into it. He does have a few hits but I feel like recently he's just throwing stuff out there with no follow through at all just to keep up his image
Ensorceled 4y ago
Oh, come on. Zip2, PayPal, Tesla, SpaceX. I mean, I don't think he's Tony Stark either, but stop cherry picking.
- anonymousab 4y ago
  That's the point though. He is very far from perfect and has as much of a record for highly ambitious projects failing altogether as he does for them succeeding. On the positive side, his ratio of successes to failures probably beats out most people, and his failures probably haven't done too much societal harm (especially compared to the good done by his successes). But it's still not a good idea to treat any of his announcements or ideas as anything near a sure thing. His bullshitting still has a fairly high chance of turning out as bullshit.
  - Ensorceled 4y ago
    But this could be said of any successful person: "Steve Jobs delivers? Ha! The Lisa, Apple III, Pixar Computer, Next Computer. Checkmate!"
corobo 4y ago
Unpredictable rewards create obsession, it all tracks. He’d probably be less popular if he actually delivered 100% More background if you’ve not come across intermittent reinforcement https://www.nirandfar.com/want-to-hook-your-users-drive-them-crazy/ https://www.nirandfar.com/want-to-hook-your-users-drive-them...
squidbeak 4y ago
I'm not immediately clear why the guy shouldn't have personal moonshot projects, pursued alongside more conventionally realistic ideas?

smt88 4y ago

He delivers very little of what he promises. Most of his ideas aren't even something anyone should deliver. Hyperloop and Boring Company are terrible ideas. Meanwhile everything else is over-promise/under-deliver.

ben_w 4y ago
If I measured by the standards I have for myself, then I would agree he overpromises and underdelivers. Compared to the marketing bluster I see from the old aerospace companies and greenwashing from older car companies, however, he’s a spectacular breath of fresh air with his honesty, openness, and willingness to say things have a less than 100% chance of success. And I say that despite agreeing with you about Hyperloop and TBC.
fourseventy 4y ago