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I agree with your conclusions, but > the onus of proof inevitably lies with the guy saying "This is what's going to happen", not the guy saying "Ehh, maybe not

by khafra 15y ago

I agree with your conclusions, but > the onus of proof inevitably lies with the guy saying "This is what's going to happen", not the guy saying "Ehh, maybe not". I'd say that the onus lies on the one making conjunctions instead of disjunctions. Often, negative predictions are disjunctions, but this isn't always the case: Compare "in 2100, North America will be inhabited by humans" with "Ehh, maybe not."

hugh3 15y ago
Something like that. It's actually hard to know where to divide up the onus of proof when we're talking about predictions. One thing's for sure, though. Kurzweil's "I'm right until proven otherwise" attitude ain't the way to do it.