> concerns about AGI make about as much sense as an overpopulation on Mars I disagree strongly that this is an apt analogy. Planning strategies for dealing wit

> concerns about AGI make about as much sense as an overpopulation on Mars I disagree strongly that this is an apt analogy. Planning strategies for dealing with overpopulation on Mars is contrived and unnecessary, whereas planning for AGI is more reasonable. The creation of AGI is a more important event than overpopulation of any given planet. There is good reason to believe that mishandling the creation of AGI would pose a permanent existential threat to humans. Overpopulation on Mars would only be an existential threat if we believed it to be followed by an exhausting of resources leading to extinction of all humans in our solar system. It is contrived to worry about that now. There is no good way to know just how close or far we are from AGI like there would be to predict overpopulation on Mars. In general, we have a strong grasp on the fundamental dynamics of overpopulation, whereas we don't yet have a strong grasp on how intelligence works. People have been very bad at predicting when AI would be capable of accomplishing tasks. There have been many under- and over- estimates by prominent researchers. If progress is unpredictable, there is some significant chance we are closer to AGI than most people think. AGI is both far more important and more probable than overpopulation of Mars in the next 20 years. > But I don't think there is any indication that they are moving towards human level intellect at some exponential rate. Is there any very strong indication that progress is plateauing, or that the current approach of deep learning is definitely not going to work? If your benchmark is simply "can it do X, or not?", it's not a very good benchmark for determining progress. That's why benchmarks usually have scores associated with them. > If DALL-E suddenly started to discuss philosophy with me I'd be concerned If DALL-E suddenly started discussing philosophy with you in a way that would concern you in that moment, you should have been concerned for years.