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If the odds are obviously against you its not useful ofc. If you think there is a 50% chance you lose everything then you should also see a 50% chance that you
by noxer 4y ago
If the odds are obviously against you its not useful ofc.
If you think there is a 50% chance you lose everything then you should also see a 50% chance that you make over 100% profit if that is not realistic its probably not the right thing.
- logifail 4y ago> If the odds are obviously against you Can you define "obviously"? Spoiler, but for financial investments, there are no [genuine] odds. That's kind of my point about the efficient markets hypothesis. For example, Tesla was at $88.60 on January 3, 2020. It's at $728 now (and peaked[?] at $1222-ish in November 2021]. Presumably there were not very many people who, in January 2020, thought Tesla would increase in value, or it wouldn't have been at $88.60 for very long.
- noxer 4y agoRoulette is an example where the odds are against you and its obvious. Your chance to win in statistically lower than 50% and it should be higher than 50%.