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I'm pretty perplexed by what crypto has become in practice. All the big selling points for me are that it's a currency (that almost nobody uses as a currency) w

by macksd 4y ago

I'm pretty perplexed by what crypto has become in practice. All the big selling points for me are that it's a currency (that almost nobody uses as a currency) with mathematically-ensured security (which goes away if, like many people, you're holding a lot of wealth in a centralized exchange that tries to dumb everything down for the entry-level consumer) and controlled inflation (which is defeated somewhat by the massively fluctuating prices all driven by hype and speculation) and the potential privacy (which is really only there in some currencies and / or if you never use any other currency) and lack of government involvement (which goes away if the government can tell you've been using crypto and decides to tax it like a security). In the end, it's a bunch of crypto bros who want to show how much they don't depend on the government suddenly realizing that FDIC-insured accounts were actually developed for a reason. It's people calling dibs on numbers. And yeah - the blockchain has led to all sorts of interesting ideas, but the money you pump into the currency du jour isn't really worth anything once people move on to a new trend, or once your exchange is hacked, or whatever. I've been getting told for months that I'm missing the train and making a bad decision by a guy who bought BTC at 60k and told me "everyone" was saying it was going to go past 100k. And apparently I was a fool for investing in property and a diversified stock and bond portfolio. So yeah - I feel somewhat vindicated right now.

mirceal 4y ago
It ain't over till the fat lady sings. Bitcoin (and crypto in general) is far from done. You cannot take one data point in time and derive your conclusion based on the point in time. Also, it does not matter what decision you would make 3 months ago with the information you have today. What matters is what decision you made 3 months ago with the information you had 3 months ago. Same for the decision you are making now. BTW: I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you. I'm mostly disagreeing with the "methodology" :)
- macksd 4y ago
  I'm not saying I don't buy crypto because it crashed at this point in time. I'm saying continuously over a very long period of time I haven't bought crypto, and that's based on the information I have had over that continual period of time. Nothing has changed for me with this crash except that some people who I think are wrong are going to shut up now. (edit: I dream - I'm sure they'll find a way to tell me they're just buying the dip). I'm saying I don't buy Bitcoin because at no point in the last few years have I seen it be used for anything other than speculation. There are no dividends. There are no voting rights in anything. There is no actual asset aside from a number that a blockchain says you own. It's like owning a share of a company that doesn't actually exist. The only upside is I can buy it and then get lucky and sell it for more than I paid for it, to someone who will almost certainly eventually get unlucky when things crash because it is and always has been useless. I see it as being no different than roulette, a game I also don't play. It's a fascinating technology on which to build a digital currency, but rounding down, currency seems to be none of the actual usage.
  - mirceal 4y ago
    I had a problem with this part: > I've been getting told for months that I'm missing the train and making a bad decision by a guy who bought BTC at 60k and told me "everyone" was saying it was going to go past 100k. And apparently I was a fool for investing in property and a diversified stock and bond portfolio. So yeah - I feel somewhat vindicated right now. I.e. Feeling vindicated right now does not necessarily match what you're going to feel when this is all over. > I'm saying I don't buy Bitcoin because at no point in the last few years have I seen it be used for anything other than speculation. There are no dividends. There are no voting rights in anything. There is no actual asset aside from a number that a blockchain says you own. It's like owning a share of a company that doesn't actually exist. The only upside is I can buy it and then get lucky and sell it for more than I paid for it, to someone who will almost certainly eventually get unlucky when things crash because it is and always has been useless. I see it as being no different than roulette, a game I also don't play. People do use it as a payment instrument. More than you think. Speculation is happening, yes, but at the end of the day, if bitcoin makes it or not is going to be tied to its use as a monetary instrument.
    - macksd 4y ago
      The most generous estimate I can find of monetary usage is 10%. Most estimates are less than half that. I don't remember the last time I saw a legal business that accepted crypto as payment or heard of anyone I know using crypto as a currency. The way it's taxed doesn't seem very currency-like to me. I've yet to hear some practical reason for crypto better than "no bro, you'll see".

by macksd 4y ago

mirceal 4y ago

It ain't over till the fat lady sings. Bitcoin (and crypto in general) is far from done. You cannot take one data point in time and derive your conclusion based on the point in time. Also, it does not matter what decision you would make 3 months ago with the information you have today. What matters is what decision you made 3 months ago with the information you had 3 months ago. Same for the decision you are making now. BTW: I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you. I'm mostly disagreeing with the "methodology" :)

macksd 4y ago
I'm not saying I don't buy crypto because it crashed at this point in time. I'm saying continuously over a very long period of time I haven't bought crypto, and that's based on the information I have had over that continual period of time. Nothing has changed for me with this crash except that some people who I think are wrong are going to shut up now. (edit: I dream - I'm sure they'll find a way to tell me they're just buying the dip). I'm saying I don't buy Bitcoin because at no point in the last few years have I seen it be used for anything other than speculation. There are no dividends. There are no voting rights in anything. There is no actual asset aside from a number that a blockchain says you own. It's like owning a share of a company that doesn't actually exist. The only upside is I can buy it and then get lucky and sell it for more than I paid for it, to someone who will almost certainly eventually get unlucky when things crash because it is and always has been useless. I see it as being no different than roulette, a game I also don't play. It's a fascinating technology on which to build a digital currency, but rounding down, currency seems to be none of the actual usage.
- mirceal 4y ago
  I had a problem with this part: > I've been getting told for months that I'm missing the train and making a bad decision by a guy who bought BTC at 60k and told me "everyone" was saying it was going to go past 100k. And apparently I was a fool for investing in property and a diversified stock and bond portfolio. So yeah - I feel somewhat vindicated right now. I.e. Feeling vindicated right now does not necessarily match what you're going to feel when this is all over. > I'm saying I don't buy Bitcoin because at no point in the last few years have I seen it be used for anything other than speculation. There are no dividends. There are no voting rights in anything. There is no actual asset aside from a number that a blockchain says you own. It's like owning a share of a company that doesn't actually exist. The only upside is I can buy it and then get lucky and sell it for more than I paid for it, to someone who will almost certainly eventually get unlucky when things crash because it is and always has been useless. I see it as being no different than roulette, a game I also don't play. People do use it as a payment instrument. More than you think. Speculation is happening, yes, but at the end of the day, if bitcoin makes it or not is going to be tied to its use as a monetary instrument.
  - macksd 4y ago
    The most generous estimate I can find of monetary usage is 10%. Most estimates are less than half that. I don't remember the last time I saw a legal business that accepted crypto as payment or heard of anyone I know using crypto as a currency. The way it's taxed doesn't seem very currency-like to me. I've yet to hear some practical reason for crypto better than "no bro, you'll see".