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The fact that the stock price is roughly halfway between the pre-Musk price and Musk's bid suggests the market expects roughly a 50% chance the deal will actual
by SatvikBeri 4y ago
The fact that the stock price is roughly halfway between the pre-Musk price and Musk's bid suggests the market expects roughly a 50% chance the deal will actually go through.
- tw8345 4y agoits probably higher than that. Imagine what it would be if it had crashed along with everything else in the market. If the deal breaks the stock is probably worth 25-30$
- SatvikBeri 4y agoThat's a good point. Metaculus estimates 85%. If Parag thinks there's a non-trivial chance the deal falls through his actions make sense.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]