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It's a Macro crash. SP500 is down -%5 YTD. Meta -37%, Netflix -65%. Lots of pain spreading. You shouldn't gloat or be happy. Give it a couple of more months lik
by jonathan-adly 4y ago
It's a Macro crash. SP500 is down -%5 YTD. Meta -37%, Netflix -65%. Lots of pain spreading. You shouldn't gloat or be happy. Give it a couple of more months like this, and lots of the HN audience would be worried about layoffs.
The security of your average software developer job is strongly tied to market cycles.
If you want a place to direct your hate and bitterness, I would do it at the architects of the BOOM/BUSTS cycles that keeps happenings and destroys people lives.
- ChrisLTD 4y agoBoom & bust cycles seem to be a built in “feature” of market economies. The architects are not trying to create booms and busts per se, but they are trying to manage them so they aren’t as devastating as 1929.
- next_xibalba 4y agoWhereas permanent poverty is a built in feature of non-market economies. Seems like an easy choice to make.
- vkou 4y agoPermanent poverty is also a defining feature of feudalism, which is the end game of any unmanaged market economy. That's another reason markets get a little bit of steering.
- kennywinker 4y agoPermanent poverty is built into this economy for all but a very very lucky few. We can do better, and framing the options as market-economy (what we have) and non-market-economy (everything else) is a false dichotomy. Markets can exist without the second-guilded-age capitalism we're in right now.
- beaconstudios 4y agoindeed, this is broadly acknowledged and studied in macroeconomics: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Business_cycle https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Business_cycle
- acchow 4y agoBut they're booming much harder and busting much harder... Should the fed have stepped in to prevent a flash freeze in liquidity in March 2020? Probably. Did they go way way way too far? Maybe. Did they go way way too far in Aug 2020 and Nov 2020 and Dec 2020 and Jan 2021, etc? Definitely.
- moistly 4y agoDid they ever fix the problems that led to the 2008 crash? I don’t think so.
- timtas 4y agoViewing boom-bust cycles as "something that just happens, we have no theory to explain why" is the great failure and embarrassment of mainstream (that is to say Keynesian) economics. But a comprehensive theory exists. It won Friedrich Hayek the Nobel Prize in 1974. You should at least be familiar with it. https://mises.org/library/austrian-theory-business-cycle-7 https://mises.org/library/austrian-theory-business-cycle-7
- mattwilsonn888 4y agoSays a lot about this site's bias that this even needs to me said (how under a rock do you have to be not to know the macro crash happening right now isn't localized to crypto?). Your comment should either be so obvious that it isn't necessary or so obvious that its the top comment.
- jjeaff 4y agoI thought crypto was supposed to be a hedge against the markets.
- JumpCrisscross 4y ago> thought crypto was supposed to be a hedge against the markets This made no theoretical sense from the start and has been quantitatively untrue for years.
- anotheracctfo 4y agoMore goalpost shifting. I've been hearing "Bitcoin is the new gold" and "Bitcoin is a hedge against inflation" since the beginning. Gold is down 2% and Bitcoin is down like 30% or something. Also please keep in mind this isn't Reddit, this is HN. The people here were there right at the beginning, and most of us played with the funny money while it was worthless. Some even became rich (Not me lol)! So don't fucking gaslight HN.
- mcguire 4y agoI can't count how many times people have explained here that Bitcoin is a "store of value". A store of value that can be down 40% YTD is...problematic. I mean, I guess the value is still there....
- timtas 4y agoMost people using bitcoin as a store of value are willing to accept volatility, given that we know for certain that fiat is a store with built-in leaks — leaks that we can all see are getting bigger and there's good reason to believe will become a sieve.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- 11101010001100 4y agoSure it's macro. But if crypto is dragging down the rest of the market what does that say about the market?
- FabHK 4y agoYou might have cause and effect mixed up there.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- bcrosby95 4y agoThe market isn't down because of crypto.
- jeffreyrogers 4y agoI doubt crypto is the driver. Seems more likely that institutional investors are pulling out of cryptos as inflation spikes. So crypto crash is an effect, not a cause.
- hn_version_0023 4y agoI like to quote Reggie Watts, from his TED talk: “What can you do when the entire economy is based on lies?” Such an uncomfortable chuckle from the crowd!
- throwaway743 4y agoYeah because the fed is hiking rates due to crypto causing inflation? Or it was crypto that was used for extreme QE? Or was it crypto that caused companies to inflate their stock values via buybacks? Not to mention crypto marketcap and volume is a drop in the bucket compared to securities.
- xtracto 4y agoCrypto marketcap is a huge lie.
- 4y ago
- azth 4y agoExactly. Direct your hate to the fed who is manipulating the market and toying with people's livelihoods.
- AlexandrB 4y agoNo one is every happy with the fed - they lower interest rates: they're encouraging inflation and de-valuing the dollar. They raise interest rates: they're toying with people's livelihoods. What is the correct action to take, in your opinion?
- jonathan-adly 4y agoMaybe trying to centrally plan the money supply is the same losing game as centrally planning your steel production? You kinda never win unless you stop playing.
- AlexandrB 4y agoSo you're suggesting we go back to each private bank issuing their own bank notes?
- sfe22 4y agoYes, if the people want to use their notes. We also suggest getting rid of kings and communist party for decentralized democracies.
- jonathan-adly 4y agoPeople like to put up binary choices. Bitcoin Vs. Dollars, Gold Vs. Yuan, Private bank money vs. really bad managed money supply. I am in the opinion that we should experiment with models other than a bunch of academics with no real practical experience getting together every month and deciding on the fate of the world economy. I am sure we could come up with something better.
- 4y ago
- jeromegv 4y agoComparing the stock market crash to LUNA/UST crash is not the same thing. Luna went from $100 to 1 cent. UST was also meant to be a stable coin, it was sold as being equivalent to stacking your money in a savings account, just stable currency that follows the USD value. Lots of people took their money OUT of many coins, and moved it to UST for "stability" thinking that their nest was safe during the storm. (Of course their trust was misplaced as it was not equivalent to keeping your money at the bank, but that's what they were led to believe) It's equivalent as if banks were bankrupting all over the place in the United States with no bank insurance from the government. No common measure comparaison with the SP 500 being down for a few months (or even a few years).
- darawk 4y agoNobody compared it to Luna UST. Luna/UST is not the crypto economy, just as Facebook is not the stock market. The general crypto economy and the general stock market have declined similarly in volatility adjusted terms.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- simonh 4y agoLUNA going down is the equivalent of a single stock collapsing, and a fairly minor one at that. OP is right, this is a generalised withdrawal of equity from volatile investments of all kinds. Exactly the same thing happened with the last market crash.
- etataetaet 4y agoWasn't LUNA in the top 10 coins? If so that seems like a big deal. That would be like Coca Cola going to zero.
- xboxnolifes 4y agoOnly if you consider top 10 coins and top 10 stocks to be of equal quality / stability. IMO, only Bitcoin and Ethereum are "blue chip" cryptocurrency. All others are pink chip.
- darawk 4y agoYou're absolutely correct. The total ignorance of HN on all matters of finance is incredibly grating.
- gonehome 4y agoYeah - the existence of this post is really an example of it. "Is anyone else <obvious case of pandering to common HN tribal confirmation bias for a dominant position on HN>" -> lots of upvotes and in-group people agreeing with each other. It's basically just hating on an HN out group. Good crypto/finance conversations HN on are unfortunately not possible. I just flag posts like this, they're just flame bait.
- yreg 4y agoWow this thread is incredibly toxic. People openly admitting to passionately hate groups of people they don't know. I thought this website was better than this.
- mcguire 4y agoThe "crash" in MT FAANG (that's a thing?) (-25%,-40%,-45%,-23%,-38%,-72% (whoa),-24%) is very likely people moving money out of stocks that they put into stocks because they could not get any return on bonds and other assets. It's a financial crash; none of the fundamentals have markedly changed. Of course, the fundamentals have been horrible because the economy has been in a bad way for several years (certainly, after March 2020, but it wasn't great before then) but the stock market has been divorced from the actual economy longer than that. Here's some pretty charts: Wilshire 5000 / GDP Ratio https://www.longtermtrends.net/market-cap-to-gdp-the-buffett-indicator/ https://www.longtermtrends.net/market-cap-to-gdp-the-buffett... Dow / GDP Ratio https://www.macrotrends.net/2574/dow-to-gdp-ratio-chart https://www.macrotrends.net/2574/dow-to-gdp-ratio-chart (Yeah, the Dow is a horrible index, but check out that period from 1966 to 1982. The 1970s were not a happy time, either economically or financially. The architects of boom/bust cycles are...you. I hope you picked up on the lessons from 2000 and 2008 and saved some of that six-figure average software developer pay.
- Breza 4y agoI'm putting money in index funds every month. That's the best low maintenance strategy for surviving all market conditions.
- ActorNightly 4y agoI am happy that capitalism is working as intended. Also, if you make software developer salary, you should absolutely be hedged against losing your job, having plenty of savings in reserve to last you well over a year.
- Zetaphor 4y agoThe only thing more annoying than people talking about crypto is people complaining about people talking about crypto. You're just perpetuating the attention cycle. I've been DCA'ing ETH for a few years now and have somehow managed to both not make it my entire identity, and not constantly complain about the people who do. The only time I hear about crypto outside of my crypto-specific social spheres is people dunking on crypto and NFT's completely unprompted. We get it, you don't like it, move on.
- dropnerd 4y agowhere are the builders? are they even on hn anymore?
- Zetaphor 4y agoI wouldn't be surprised if they got tired of the constant negativity when anything related to crypto is mentioned. I thought this was supposed to be a forum of like minded people interested in technology and its potential applications. Ever since the start of this last bull market it's felt incredibly hostile to anyone even remotely interested in blockchains and related tech. Maybe it's always been like this, I've only been here a couple years.
- gonehome 4y agoHN has always had its knee-jerk negativity and dumber biases on some topics, but the extremeness around the crypto stuff really is something novel imo. I find it not worth engaging on the topic here at all anymore (and I've tried earnestly a few times).