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The ship has sailed for Russia already. USA will not tolerate obstruction by Germany, France or Hungary. Recent meeting about Ukraine support was hold in Ramste
by piokoch 4y ago
The ship has sailed for Russia already. USA will not tolerate obstruction by Germany, France or Hungary. Recent meeting about Ukraine support was hold in Ramstein and this place was chosen intentionally - to show who is the master of the show and who should sit and listen.
By attacking Ukraine Russia wanted to "push" NATO away from its borders, but it all went backwards - now they will have a new, 1300 km long border with NATO member countries.
Russian fleet in Petersburg can be decommissioned now, as there is no merit to maintain it while Gulf of Finland can be easily blocked and is under traditional artillery control from Estonia and Finland side (it is just 80-100 km wide).
In fact in case of military conflict Petersburg is lost, can be attacked from the West and the North by land and covered by long range rocket artillery like Himmars (it is just 200 km away from Finnish and Estonian borders).
Same story with Murmansk harbor, it will be very difficult for Russia to defend it against attack from Norway and Finland given the very long and fragile supply line - a single E105 route, 1000 km long or train connection that goes along that route. Imagine famous Kiev 60 km convoy multiplied by 10 and attacked not by post-soviet era weapon that Ukraine had but by state of the art equipment.
Russia will have to put a lot of forces over there to be able to protect new attack line that they have opened by themselves. Build hell a lot of new infrastructure, provide logistic support, etc. The costs will be exorbitant.
When countries like Poland, Romania or Baltic countries became NATO members it was clear that they will need to be protected by western armies (although Poland is quickly catching up with its military potential, other countries is developing too). Right now situation is different: two very strong, well equipped, well trained armies are joining the Pact.
Another 300 modern tanks, Sweden by itself has more than 400 modern combat aircrafts of various types, Finland has just contracted 60 F-35 (with loyal wingman option that doubles the potential in future), plus artillery and other best of class equipment.
Indeed, Putin, Gerasimov and Shoygu are master strategists.
- Thaxll 4y agoUSA is playing a dangerous game atm, they're not in Europe and don't depend on Russian energies. They just want Russia to sink and don't really care about the fate of Europe.
- hypertele-Xii 4y agoFinland and Sweden don't depend on Russian energies either.
- yencabulator 4y agoRussia just shut down their electricity export to Finland, Finland shrugged and made up the 10% difference with a combo of local production and buying from Sweden.
- bell-cot 4y ago> In fact in case of military conflict [St.] Petersburg is lost, can be attacked from the West and the North by land and covered by long range rocket artillery... Ah...if I recall, the Germans - with a very large, experienced, and well-equipped army, at the time - assumed that St. Petersburg could be taken fairly easily back in 1941. That turned out not to be the case.
- trasz 4y agoBack then Russians had the will to fight. They knew what they were fighting for. Nowadays very few would want to fight for another oligarchs yacht.
- bzbarsky 4y agoJust to make the numbers clear, Leningrad had something like 2.5 million residents in 1941. Depending on who is counting, somewhere between 600 thousand and a million died during the siege of Leningrad (largely from hunger, which is a separate long discussion). There were also somewhere on the order of 350-400 thousand Soviet soldiers killed in the battles around Leningrad. It's pretty hard to "take" a multi-million person city if the residents are willing to accept double-digit-percentage fatality rates to prevent it... The big unknown is always whether they will be willing to accept it.
- dralley 4y agoAnd of course Kyiv is not far from the border, either.
- ptx 4y ago> Sweden by itself has more than 400 modern combat aircrafts of various types According to Wikipedia [1], the Swedish airforce has only 207 aircraft in total, only 71 of which are combat aircraft (JAS 39 Gripen). [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swedish_Air_Force https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swedish_Air_Force