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"Surely the risk of NATO being involved in any conflict only increases as NATO grows?" No, it diminishes. NATO is a defensive alliance. The more members it has

by fsloth 4y ago

"Surely the risk of NATO being involved in any conflict only increases as NATO grows?" No, it diminishes. NATO is a defensive alliance. The more members it has with credible military spending (which Finland has) the higher the cost for Russia to invade.

mach1ne 4y ago
I should add that Russia desires the Baltics, which are in an awkward position to defend by NATO. Finland has a strong military and its proximity to those countries makes an incursion somewhat less likely.
- KptMarchewa 4y ago
  That was the leading thought before we were shown how ineffective Russian conventional military is.
  - mach1ne 4y ago
    Indeed they demonstrated that, but don't underestimate the effect an existential crisis like this has. We will almost certainly see heavy changes coming to the Russian military. It could be that in five to ten years their military is actually capable, after both structural and strategical upgrades. And the lines we now draw between NATO, Russia and China could well be the lines of a WW3 within a decade. Hopefully not though.
    - tsimionescu 4y ago
      The more NATO expands, the higher the risk of that war. Russia joining China wasn't even a foregone conclusion, but our leaders are doing everything they can to push it in that direction.
    - volkl48 4y ago
      They've claimed to be doing those heavy changes for the last ten years and this is what they have to show for it. Being cut off from nearly all advanced technology and with a terrible economy doesn't sound like a recipe for improving much in that sense either.
logifail 4y ago
> No, it diminishes. NATO is a defensive alliance. The more members it has [..] A similar line of argument about alliances and treaties preventing war was used before the First World War. We all know how that ended.
- JumpCrisscross 4y ago
  > similar line of argument about alliances and treaties preventing war was used before the First World War NATO was formed with that in mind. A single treaty document publicly ratified. No secret pacts. No back-alley alliances.
- calf 4y ago
  It's also a bad concept. Defensive alliance is a loaded term, but people use it in arguments as if it was a well defined mathematical object.
  - logifail 4y ago
    > Defensive alliance is a loaded term It also doesn't appear to be a very accurate description of the things NATO has been getting up to since the end of the Cold War. "[NATO] has been involved in military operations in the Balkans, the Middle East, South Asia, and Africa"[0] You don't have to be a spin doctor to realise that what seems like "defence" to one person is another's war of aggression. German defence minister Peter Struck memorably said in 2004 that "Germany was also [being] defended on the Hindu Kush".[1] [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO [1] https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/service/bulletin/rede-des-bundesministers-der-verteidigung-dr-peter-struck--784328 https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/service/bulletin/rede...
  - CRConrad 4y ago
    > Defensive alliance is a loaded term, but people use it in arguments as if it was a well defined mathematical object. Almost like "defensive weapons". Almost, because that's even worse.

by fsloth 4y ago

mach1ne 4y ago

I should add that Russia desires the Baltics, which are in an awkward position to defend by NATO. Finland has a strong military and its proximity to those countries makes an incursion somewhat less likely.

KptMarchewa 4y ago
That was the leading thought before we were shown how ineffective Russian conventional military is.
- mach1ne 4y ago
  Indeed they demonstrated that, but don't underestimate the effect an existential crisis like this has. We will almost certainly see heavy changes coming to the Russian military. It could be that in five to ten years their military is actually capable, after both structural and strategical upgrades. And the lines we now draw between NATO, Russia and China could well be the lines of a WW3 within a decade. Hopefully not though.
  - tsimionescu 4y ago
    The more NATO expands, the higher the risk of that war. Russia joining China wasn't even a foregone conclusion, but our leaders are doing everything they can to push it in that direction.
  - volkl48 4y ago
    They've claimed to be doing those heavy changes for the last ten years and this is what they have to show for it. Being cut off from nearly all advanced technology and with a terrible economy doesn't sound like a recipe for improving much in that sense either.

logifail 4y ago

> No, it diminishes. NATO is a defensive alliance. The more members it has [..] A similar line of argument about alliances and treaties preventing war was used before the First World War. We all know how that ended.

JumpCrisscross 4y ago
> similar line of argument about alliances and treaties preventing war was used before the First World War NATO was formed with that in mind. A single treaty document publicly ratified. No secret pacts. No back-alley alliances.
calf 4y ago
It's also a bad concept. Defensive alliance is a loaded term, but people use it in arguments as if it was a well defined mathematical object.
- logifail 4y ago
  > Defensive alliance is a loaded term It also doesn't appear to be a very accurate description of the things NATO has been getting up to since the end of the Cold War. "[NATO] has been involved in military operations in the Balkans, the Middle East, South Asia, and Africa"[0] You don't have to be a spin doctor to realise that what seems like "defence" to one person is another's war of aggression. German defence minister Peter Struck memorably said in 2004 that "Germany was also [being] defended on the Hindu Kush".[1] [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO [1] https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/service/bulletin/rede-des-bundesministers-der-verteidigung-dr-peter-struck--784328 https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/service/bulletin/rede...
- CRConrad 4y ago
  > Defensive alliance is a loaded term, but people use it in arguments as if it was a well defined mathematical object. Almost like "defensive weapons". Almost, because that's even worse.