5 ms·

If I were living in Finland, I'd feel safer (against external aggression) if the country was in NATO than if it wasn't.

logifail 4y ago
> If I were living in Finland, I'd feel safer (against external aggression) if the country was in NATO than if it wasn't Finland might feel safer once they're in NATO. The rest of NATO (and non-NATO states in Western Europe), perhaps not quite so much. Surely the risk of NATO being involved in any conflict only increases as NATO grows?
- fsloth 4y ago
  "Surely the risk of NATO being involved in any conflict only increases as NATO grows?" No, it diminishes. NATO is a defensive alliance. The more members it has with credible military spending (which Finland has) the higher the cost for Russia to invade.
  - mach1ne 4y ago
    I should add that Russia desires the Baltics, which are in an awkward position to defend by NATO. Finland has a strong military and its proximity to those countries makes an incursion somewhat less likely.
    - KptMarchewa 4y ago
      That was the leading thought before we were shown how ineffective Russian conventional military is.
      - mach1ne 4y ago
        Indeed they demonstrated that, but don't underestimate the effect an existential crisis like this has. We will almost certainly see heavy changes coming to the Russian military. It could be that in five to ten years their military is actually capable, after both structural and strategical upgrades. And the lines we now draw between NATO, Russia and China could well be the lines of a WW3 within a decade. Hopefully not though.
        tsimionescu 4y ago
        The more NATO expands, the higher the risk of that war. Russia joining China wasn't even a foregone conclusion, but our leaders are doing everything they can to push it in that direction.
        volkl48 4y ago
        They've claimed to be doing those heavy changes for the last ten years and this is what they have to show for it. Being cut off from nearly all advanced technology and with a terrible economy doesn't sound like a recipe for improving much in that sense either.
  - logifail 4y ago
    > No, it diminishes. NATO is a defensive alliance. The more members it has [..] A similar line of argument about alliances and treaties preventing war was used before the First World War. We all know how that ended.
    - JumpCrisscross 4y ago
      > similar line of argument about alliances and treaties preventing war was used before the First World War NATO was formed with that in mind. A single treaty document publicly ratified. No secret pacts. No back-alley alliances.
    - calf 4y ago
      It's also a bad concept. Defensive alliance is a loaded term, but people use it in arguments as if it was a well defined mathematical object.
      - logifail 4y ago
        > Defensive alliance is a loaded term It also doesn't appear to be a very accurate description of the things NATO has been getting up to since the end of the Cold War. "[NATO] has been involved in military operations in the Balkans, the Middle East, South Asia, and Africa"[0] You don't have to be a spin doctor to realise that what seems like "defence" to one person is another's war of aggression. German defence minister Peter Struck memorably said in 2004 that "Germany was also [being] defended on the Hindu Kush".[1] [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO [1] https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/service/bulletin/rede-des-bundesministers-der-verteidigung-dr-peter-struck--784328 https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/service/bulletin/rede...
      - CRConrad 4y ago
        > Defensive alliance is a loaded term, but people use it in arguments as if it was a well defined mathematical object. Almost like "defensive weapons". Almost, because that's even worse.
- croon 4y ago
  Only if you assume the risk of conflict in any member country being the same as when they weren't a member.
  - logifail 4y ago
    > Only if you assume the risk of conflict in any member country being the same as when they weren't a member Let's imagine we're France. What's the actual risk of us being directly attacked by an enemy country, starting a conflict? Now imagine we're France, obliged to join in a conflict by NATO's "collective defence" Article 5. This conflict was already started by an enemy attacking any one of the other 29 NATO members. Particularly murky that now NATO claims cyberattacks count for article 5, and since 2001 we know terrorism can count too. What's the risk of the latter compared to the former? I don't see Article 5 as the providor of peace that so many appear to assume it is. Now that the Cold War is long-gone, and it's no longer as simple as "NATO vs Warsaw Pact" in which is was fairly easy to see which side you'd want to be on, I also don't think Article 5 is worth the paper it's written on. For instance, would your country's citizens be happy to join a war over Taiwan?
    - blibble 4y ago
      if everyone followed that logic France would still be under nazi rule
- rodgerd 4y ago
  How has appeasement worked out in Chechnya, the invasion of Ukraine and seizure of Crimea, Georgia, shooting down a civilian airliner? What shall we give Russia this time? Then when they come for Poland or Romania, who do you suggest we offer to rape and murder?
  - tsimionescu 4y ago
    Given that Russia couldn't even cleanly occupy Ukraine, it's laughable to suggest they could attack NATO countries such as Poland and Romania.
    - mindslight 4y ago
      That doesn't follow. Even though Russia has not been able to occupy most of Ukraine, they've still been able to attack the civilian population. Either through medium range missile strikes, or with occupation forces committing war crimes before being pushed back (to put it mildly). I assume the citizens of Poland and Romania much prefer being able to go to a shopping mall without being subject to missile strikes.
      - trasz 4y ago
        Russia wouldn’t be able to hurt Ukrainian population if the latter had proper Air Force.
        agapon 4y ago
        Very few countries in the world have "proper" air force.
tsimionescu 4y ago
Perhaps, but trying to become a NATO member has a much higher chance of getting you embroiled in a war than not doing that. This continued escalation can't help but lead to nuclear war, our leaders are playing an extremely dangerous game of chicken. If anything, Russia's botched invasion of Ukraine should show other countries in the region that there isn't so much to fear from them, and that NATO can be counted for help even without having to risk triggering Article 5 against a nuclear power. And make no mistake: a hot NATO-Russia war is the worse possible outcome for everyone involved. If it came to that, it would be objectively better to become a vassal of Russia than living through a nuclear war, for the vast majority of the population.
- martindbp 4y ago
  Appeasement worked great with Hitler and Mussolini... Finland is a sovereign nation and has the right to join any defensive union it wants. Interesting with all the down votes, wonder if Russian bots have reach even on HN? The fact is that this is happening, and Sweden is joining too, and I'm glad we are. You need some very twisted Russian logic to see sovereign states joining of their own accord, with majority support in the population as a valid excuse for Russia to attack us.
  - tsimionescu 4y ago
    Here is how the US responded to the Solomon Islands military treaty with China (emphasis mine): > If steps are taken to establish a de facto permanent military presence, power-projection capabilities, or a military installation, the delegation noted that the United States would then have significant concerns and respond accordingly. Note that the Solomon Islands is also a sovereign nation, and that it is > 10,000km away from the US border, and >2000km away from the border of the closest US Ally, Australia. My point is not whataboutism, it is that sovereign nations have an interest in the military alliances of other sovereign nations, and that the security of one state doesn't stop at its borders. Joining hostile military alliances or massing troops at a shared border is logically viewed as a security threat from another nation, and sovereign nations have a right to attempt to prevent such actions. Of course, doing it by force of arms the way Russia did is entirely illegal and immoral. Even the threat of violence is considered unacceptable by the Geneva convention, though of course that is often ignored. But complaining or seeking diplomatic and even economic ways to prevent such actions is not immoral in my view, and it is certainly not unusual.
nonameking2026 4y ago
Timing is important - this is maybe not the best time to join.

> If I were living in Finland, I'd feel safer (against external aggression) if the country was in NATO than if it wasn't Finland might feel safer once they're in NATO. The rest of NATO (and non-NATO states in Western Europe), perhaps not quite so much. Surely the risk of NATO being involved in any conflict only increases as NATO grows?

fsloth 4y ago
"Surely the risk of NATO being involved in any conflict only increases as NATO grows?" No, it diminishes. NATO is a defensive alliance. The more members it has with credible military spending (which Finland has) the higher the cost for Russia to invade.
- mach1ne 4y ago
  I should add that Russia desires the Baltics, which are in an awkward position to defend by NATO. Finland has a strong military and its proximity to those countries makes an incursion somewhat less likely.
  - KptMarchewa 4y ago
    That was the leading thought before we were shown how ineffective Russian conventional military is.
    - mach1ne 4y ago
      Indeed they demonstrated that, but don't underestimate the effect an existential crisis like this has. We will almost certainly see heavy changes coming to the Russian military. It could be that in five to ten years their military is actually capable, after both structural and strategical upgrades. And the lines we now draw between NATO, Russia and China could well be the lines of a WW3 within a decade. Hopefully not though.
      - tsimionescu 4y ago
        The more NATO expands, the higher the risk of that war. Russia joining China wasn't even a foregone conclusion, but our leaders are doing everything they can to push it in that direction.
      - volkl48 4y ago
        They've claimed to be doing those heavy changes for the last ten years and this is what they have to show for it. Being cut off from nearly all advanced technology and with a terrible economy doesn't sound like a recipe for improving much in that sense either.
- logifail 4y ago
  > No, it diminishes. NATO is a defensive alliance. The more members it has [..] A similar line of argument about alliances and treaties preventing war was used before the First World War. We all know how that ended.
  - JumpCrisscross 4y ago
    > similar line of argument about alliances and treaties preventing war was used before the First World War NATO was formed with that in mind. A single treaty document publicly ratified. No secret pacts. No back-alley alliances.
  - calf 4y ago
    It's also a bad concept. Defensive alliance is a loaded term, but people use it in arguments as if it was a well defined mathematical object.
    - logifail 4y ago
      > Defensive alliance is a loaded term It also doesn't appear to be a very accurate description of the things NATO has been getting up to since the end of the Cold War. "[NATO] has been involved in military operations in the Balkans, the Middle East, South Asia, and Africa"[0] You don't have to be a spin doctor to realise that what seems like "defence" to one person is another's war of aggression. German defence minister Peter Struck memorably said in 2004 that "Germany was also [being] defended on the Hindu Kush".[1] [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO [1] https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/service/bulletin/rede-des-bundesministers-der-verteidigung-dr-peter-struck--784328 https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/service/bulletin/rede...
    - CRConrad 4y ago
      > Defensive alliance is a loaded term, but people use it in arguments as if it was a well defined mathematical object. Almost like "defensive weapons". Almost, because that's even worse.
croon 4y ago
Only if you assume the risk of conflict in any member country being the same as when they weren't a member.
- logifail 4y ago
  > Only if you assume the risk of conflict in any member country being the same as when they weren't a member Let's imagine we're France. What's the actual risk of us being directly attacked by an enemy country, starting a conflict? Now imagine we're France, obliged to join in a conflict by NATO's "collective defence" Article 5. This conflict was already started by an enemy attacking any one of the other 29 NATO members. Particularly murky that now NATO claims cyberattacks count for article 5, and since 2001 we know terrorism can count too. What's the risk of the latter compared to the former? I don't see Article 5 as the providor of peace that so many appear to assume it is. Now that the Cold War is long-gone, and it's no longer as simple as "NATO vs Warsaw Pact" in which is was fairly easy to see which side you'd want to be on, I also don't think Article 5 is worth the paper it's written on. For instance, would your country's citizens be happy to join a war over Taiwan?
  - blibble 4y ago
    if everyone followed that logic France would still be under nazi rule
rodgerd 4y ago
How has appeasement worked out in Chechnya, the invasion of Ukraine and seizure of Crimea, Georgia, shooting down a civilian airliner? What shall we give Russia this time? Then when they come for Poland or Romania, who do you suggest we offer to rape and murder?
- tsimionescu 4y ago
  Given that Russia couldn't even cleanly occupy Ukraine, it's laughable to suggest they could attack NATO countries such as Poland and Romania.
  - mindslight 4y ago
    That doesn't follow. Even though Russia has not been able to occupy most of Ukraine, they've still been able to attack the civilian population. Either through medium range missile strikes, or with occupation forces committing war crimes before being pushed back (to put it mildly). I assume the citizens of Poland and Romania much prefer being able to go to a shopping mall without being subject to missile strikes.
    - trasz 4y ago
      Russia wouldn’t be able to hurt Ukrainian population if the latter had proper Air Force.
      - agapon 4y ago
        Very few countries in the world have "proper" air force.

tsimionescu 4y ago

Perhaps, but trying to become a NATO member has a much higher chance of getting you embroiled in a war than not doing that. This continued escalation can't help but lead to nuclear war, our leaders are playing an extremely dangerous game of chicken. If anything, Russia's botched invasion of Ukraine should show other countries in the region that there isn't so much to fear from them, and that NATO can be counted for help even without having to risk triggering Article 5 against a nuclear power. And make no mistake: a hot NATO-Russia war is the worse possible outcome for everyone involved. If it came to that, it would be objectively better to become a vassal of Russia than living through a nuclear war, for the vast majority of the population.

martindbp 4y ago
Appeasement worked great with Hitler and Mussolini... Finland is a sovereign nation and has the right to join any defensive union it wants. Interesting with all the down votes, wonder if Russian bots have reach even on HN? The fact is that this is happening, and Sweden is joining too, and I'm glad we are. You need some very twisted Russian logic to see sovereign states joining of their own accord, with majority support in the population as a valid excuse for Russia to attack us.
- tsimionescu 4y ago
  Here is how the US responded to the Solomon Islands military treaty with China (emphasis mine): > If steps are taken to establish a de facto permanent military presence, power-projection capabilities, or a military installation, the delegation noted that the United States would then have significant concerns and respond accordingly. Note that the Solomon Islands is also a sovereign nation, and that it is > 10,000km away from the US border, and >2000km away from the border of the closest US Ally, Australia. My point is not whataboutism, it is that sovereign nations have an interest in the military alliances of other sovereign nations, and that the security of one state doesn't stop at its borders. Joining hostile military alliances or massing troops at a shared border is logically viewed as a security threat from another nation, and sovereign nations have a right to attempt to prevent such actions. Of course, doing it by force of arms the way Russia did is entirely illegal and immoral. Even the threat of violence is considered unacceptable by the Geneva convention, though of course that is often ignored. But complaining or seeking diplomatic and even economic ways to prevent such actions is not immoral in my view, and it is certainly not unusual.

nonameking2026 4y ago

Timing is important - this is maybe not the best time to join.