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A year ago I advocated this “riskless” strategy on HN… if anyone actually listened to me, would you be up 1,000,000% right now? https://news.ycombinator.com/it

by EGreg 5y ago

A year ago I advocated this “riskless” strategy on HN… if anyone actually listened to me, would you be up 1,000,000% right now? https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26106281 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26106281

eterm 5y ago
Did you listen to yourself and do that?
mateuszf 5y ago
Did you listen?
wcoenen 5y ago
Your idea was basically to short tether at high leverage and wait. But margin trading with high leverage isn't free. You are essentially borrowing the money at a very high interest rate. For example, at Kraken the margin cost is currently typically 0.02% per 4 hours. This is not something you want to maintain while waiting for an event that could take years to materialize. And that's for modest leverage (up to 5x), I imagine it's even more expensive for the 100x leverage you were looking for. https://support.kraken.com/hc/en-us/articles/206161568-What-are-the-fees-opening-and-rollover-for-trading-using-margin- https://support.kraken.com/hc/en-us/articles/206161568-What-...
- phire 5y ago
  "Markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you and I can remain solvent"
namdnay 5y ago
The main risk is your riskless strategy is that when the whole system blows up, everything you have on your exchange disappears too.
hluska 5y ago
If that is meant to be a joke, it’s actually quite funny. Good job. If you meant that seriously, it’s extremely poor quality advice. Leverage is neither free nor cheap. And taking 100% leverage is obscenely risky. Your characterization of it as ‘risk free’ is the most dangerous part. At 100% leverage, small swings could lead to calls you simply cannot afford.
- lolegreg 5y ago
  You’re misreading. That comment is a powerful, personal realization he’s had and shared with us and a really, really interesting thing to watch happen. I’m serious. You’re explaining to him what he’s just realized so hard that I can taste the holy-shit bile through his comment. Welcome him back to the fold. Don’t lecture him. I never thought I’d see it actually happen, and I’m kind of blown away I’m in the same thread. It’s actually possible for the hardcore believers to snap out of it, and that’s the unquestionably greatest thing I’ve heard in three long years. There is hope. I was genuinely starting to wonder. Note that this isn’t personal and I had no idea who he was until five minutes ago. I just type some shit in the username box every time I sign up.
- microtherion 5y ago
  BTW, the assumption that Tether would not go substantially above $1 is incorrect. Tether has occasionally traded as high as $1.32 — of course these were only brief glitches, but sufficient to completely wipe out short traders. Any suggestion that such glitches could have been engineered by the exchanges who are closely connected to Tether is, of course, nothing but malicious slander.
oarabbus_ 5y ago
No, it's back to 99c
lolegreg 5y ago
Exhibit A, and the cryptocurrency skeptics rest our case. Welcome back buddy how’s it feel
iso1210 5y ago
So how many billions did you make?

by EGreg 5y ago

eterm 5y ago

Did you listen to yourself and do that?

mateuszf 5y ago

Did you listen?

wcoenen 5y ago

Your idea was basically to short tether at high leverage and wait. But margin trading with high leverage isn't free. You are essentially borrowing the money at a very high interest rate. For example, at Kraken the margin cost is currently typically 0.02% per 4 hours. This is not something you want to maintain while waiting for an event that could take years to materialize. And that's for modest leverage (up to 5x), I imagine it's even more expensive for the 100x leverage you were looking for. https://support.kraken.com/hc/en-us/articles/206161568-What-are-the-fees-opening-and-rollover-for-trading-using-margin- https://support.kraken.com/hc/en-us/articles/206161568-What-...

phire 5y ago
"Markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you and I can remain solvent"

namdnay 5y ago

The main risk is your riskless strategy is that when the whole system blows up, everything you have on your exchange disappears too.

hluska 5y ago

If that is meant to be a joke, it’s actually quite funny. Good job. If you meant that seriously, it’s extremely poor quality advice. Leverage is neither free nor cheap. And taking 100% leverage is obscenely risky. Your characterization of it as ‘risk free’ is the most dangerous part. At 100% leverage, small swings could lead to calls you simply cannot afford.

lolegreg 5y ago
You’re misreading. That comment is a powerful, personal realization he’s had and shared with us and a really, really interesting thing to watch happen. I’m serious. You’re explaining to him what he’s just realized so hard that I can taste the holy-shit bile through his comment. Welcome him back to the fold. Don’t lecture him. I never thought I’d see it actually happen, and I’m kind of blown away I’m in the same thread. It’s actually possible for the hardcore believers to snap out of it, and that’s the unquestionably greatest thing I’ve heard in three long years. There is hope. I was genuinely starting to wonder. Note that this isn’t personal and I had no idea who he was until five minutes ago. I just type some shit in the username box every time I sign up.
microtherion 5y ago
BTW, the assumption that Tether would not go substantially above $1 is incorrect. Tether has occasionally traded as high as $1.32 — of course these were only brief glitches, but sufficient to completely wipe out short traders. Any suggestion that such glitches could have been engineered by the exchanges who are closely connected to Tether is, of course, nothing but malicious slander.

oarabbus_ 5y ago

No, it's back to 99c

lolegreg 5y ago

Exhibit A, and the cryptocurrency skeptics rest our case. Welcome back buddy how’s it feel

iso1210 5y ago

So how many billions did you make?