In 2020, 222 of 435 seats were D, so 51%. The popular vote was 51.5% D, so the D's should have an extra 2 seats. In contrast, 538's analysis shows that the R's

In 2020, 222 of 435 seats were D, so 51%. The popular vote was 51.5% D, so the D's should have an extra 2 seats. In contrast, 538's analysis shows that the R's have an advantage of 52% of the seats 538 identifies as "leaning" (with 68 seats left to have lines set). 538 shows the D's doing slightly better so far in the current redistricting balance, but they are still behind the R's on balance. You need to read 538's work if you think corrral is wrong.