5 ms·

I've been following Quantumscape for a while. The reason they come up in conversations about solid state batteries a lot is because they regularly report on whe

I've been following Quantumscape for a while. The reason they come up in conversations about solid state batteries a lot is because they regularly report on where they are as a company and because they are quite a bit further than a proof of concept. That's what they had a few years ago. At this point they are scaling the engineering of increasingly more complex battery samples and testing the hell out of those. Basically, they've been ramping up sample production for some time and have shipped battery samples to customers like Volkswagen who have independently verified their claims and are a major investor. In the last year they've upped the ambition level in terms of the number of layers in the battery, the number of charging cycles under conditions that would stress any battery, etc. They've been reporting steady progress every few months more or less on the previously announced schedule that they were planning to do so. Their near future plans involve a small test factory that is due to come online next year with small numbers of vehicles on the road by 2024/2025 time frame. Realistically volume production of this would not kick off until closer to the end of this decade. They've actually done a great job of managing expectations around what they do. Full disclosure: I bought some stock last year in this company and it dropped about 50% in value since then. So, not great. I'm holding onto the shares because I believe they are actually under valued currently. To me it looks like they have a high chance of getting to the market first with a working product that should deliver impressive safety, energy density, and charging speeds. I don't know of other solid state battery companies that are that close to having a market ready product. They have customers lining up (several major car brands). A healthy amount of liquidity to build factories and do more testing. And there's going to be a market for their batteries if they manage to ship working products. So far, everything I've heard about this company suggests that things are proceeding more or less as planned and that they remain on track to do hit their targets over the next few years. But I may have to wait a few years before that translates into the massive share price increase I'm expecting. It's a gamble and I don't recommend others to gamble. But I feel good about this one. Sandy Munro interviewed the CEO a few months ago on his Youtube channel. Worth a watch.

panick21_ 5y ago
Seems like you have been 'scamed' by the 'solid state' hype. What matters is what the price is for most applications. And when you are actually competing on specs, silicon additives to current anodes batteries can achieve many of the same specs. And silicon additives can easily be added to existing giga-factories. While QS will need to invest 10s of billions if they want to match that. In my opinion by 2028 existing battery factories will spit out batteries with the specs QS claims at a lower price.
- toss1 5y ago
  Very interesting - can you point me to sources on who is doing this successfully? Thanks!
  - panick21_ 5y ago
    What do you mean with 'this'? You mean silicon anodes ad additives? Just to start with, silicon has almost the a very high theoretical potential for an anode. Almost as high as lithium metal. Its not new, current a standard Tesla likely already have 5% silicon oxide in the anode. But to compete with what QS is planning you will needed higher % and likely a different form of silicon. Every large battery is working on silicon, it makes the battery cheaper and increases density. There are also a huge number of silicon startups. One example that is comparable to QS is Sila Nanotechnology. silanano.com Tesla is investing massively in silicon as well. They bought a number startups and doing a lot of development. I would suggest this playlist (just the silicon parts if you want): https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLyvdbTy3v1d5luwdDGPFPab9WWPmMW_cJ https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLyvdbTy3v1d5luwdDGPFP... On the same channel you can also find videos on QuantumScape that are very well researched. But just to be clear, I don't think its a 'scam'. I just think their valuation went insane for a company many years away from actually selling anything and huge investments to be made with large tech risk.
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
    - toss1 5y ago
      Exact answer - thanks! Feel similarly abt QS, lot of potential, but not yet actualized, and valuation ahead of itself - and, damn, I want to get my hands on some of their solid state batteries at 500Wh/kg!
- dzhiurgis 5y ago
  > can easily be added to existing giga-factories Thing is we need 10-100 more gigafactories to meet battery demand.
AtlasBarfed 5y ago
I can be proven wrong, but I suspect that solid state won't be price viable for a long time. LFP and sodium ion chemistries are improving to an economic sweet spot that solid state may not be able to compete in without a lot of scaling and risk. LFP at 230-260 wh/kg will probably be able to handle all the Tesla ranges of 300-400 mile packs, especially given their reduced need for heat management so their cell-to-pack densities are higher. Sodium Ion at 150-200 wh/kg will be even cheaper than LFP, and can probably handle the 200-300 mile range EV, which will probably handle 90% of consumer transport in high density cities in China, India, Europe, Latin America, and other places. Solid State will then be competing for high-end applications (well, there is still semis/heavy transport, but LFP may be good enough for that too). I don't think it is good enough for air transport. Li-S may beat it out economically as well. But options are always good, and there will be lots of room for different flavors of batteries.
JohnJamesRambo 5y ago
This post is why investors and stockholders are the best free marketers a company could ever ask for. They give you money and then work for you.
rkangel 5y ago
Thank you both for this detailed summary and declaration of your bias. "Near future plans involving a small test factory" means they're about 10 steps further along than most articles about new battery tech. There's still another 10 steps to go before it affects my life though (one measure of "volume production").

panick21_ 5y ago

Seems like you have been 'scamed' by the 'solid state' hype. What matters is what the price is for most applications. And when you are actually competing on specs, silicon additives to current anodes batteries can achieve many of the same specs. And silicon additives can easily be added to existing giga-factories. While QS will need to invest 10s of billions if they want to match that. In my opinion by 2028 existing battery factories will spit out batteries with the specs QS claims at a lower price.

toss1 5y ago
Very interesting - can you point me to sources on who is doing this successfully? Thanks!
- panick21_ 5y ago
  What do you mean with 'this'? You mean silicon anodes ad additives? Just to start with, silicon has almost the a very high theoretical potential for an anode. Almost as high as lithium metal. Its not new, current a standard Tesla likely already have 5% silicon oxide in the anode. But to compete with what QS is planning you will needed higher % and likely a different form of silicon. Every large battery is working on silicon, it makes the battery cheaper and increases density. There are also a huge number of silicon startups. One example that is comparable to QS is Sila Nanotechnology. silanano.com Tesla is investing massively in silicon as well. They bought a number startups and doing a lot of development. I would suggest this playlist (just the silicon parts if you want): https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLyvdbTy3v1d5luwdDGPFPab9WWPmMW_cJ https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLyvdbTy3v1d5luwdDGPFP... On the same channel you can also find videos on QuantumScape that are very well researched. But just to be clear, I don't think its a 'scam'. I just think their valuation went insane for a company many years away from actually selling anything and huge investments to be made with large tech risk.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - toss1 5y ago
    Exact answer - thanks! Feel similarly abt QS, lot of potential, but not yet actualized, and valuation ahead of itself - and, damn, I want to get my hands on some of their solid state batteries at 500Wh/kg!
dzhiurgis 5y ago
> can easily be added to existing giga-factories Thing is we need 10-100 more gigafactories to meet battery demand.

AtlasBarfed 5y ago

I can be proven wrong, but I suspect that solid state won't be price viable for a long time. LFP and sodium ion chemistries are improving to an economic sweet spot that solid state may not be able to compete in without a lot of scaling and risk. LFP at 230-260 wh/kg will probably be able to handle all the Tesla ranges of 300-400 mile packs, especially given their reduced need for heat management so their cell-to-pack densities are higher. Sodium Ion at 150-200 wh/kg will be even cheaper than LFP, and can probably handle the 200-300 mile range EV, which will probably handle 90% of consumer transport in high density cities in China, India, Europe, Latin America, and other places. Solid State will then be competing for high-end applications (well, there is still semis/heavy transport, but LFP may be good enough for that too). I don't think it is good enough for air transport. Li-S may beat it out economically as well. But options are always good, and there will be lots of room for different flavors of batteries.

JohnJamesRambo 5y ago

This post is why investors and stockholders are the best free marketers a company could ever ask for. They give you money and then work for you.

rkangel 5y ago

Thank you both for this detailed summary and declaration of your bias. "Near future plans involving a small test factory" means they're about 10 steps further along than most articles about new battery tech. There's still another 10 steps to go before it affects my life though (one measure of "volume production").