Choosing safer paths does not bring you from 1/100 of success to 9/10 - perhaps it brings you to 3/100 or 1/10, but at that level you still have to have the win

Choosing safer paths does not bring you from 1/100 of success to 9/10 - perhaps it brings you to 3/100 or 1/10, but at that level you still have to have the winners making it very big to pay for the losers.