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> I also think there is public support for gay an interracial marriage today in a way that there never was for Roe and later Casey. 48% support abortion under

by eigen 4y ago

> I also think there is public support for gay an interracial marriage today in a way that there never was for Roe and later Casey. 48% support abortion under certain circumstances, 32% for any circumstance. so ~80% support allowing abortion. [1] 94% support interracial marriage. [2] 70% support same-sex marriage. [3] seems to follow the age of the legal decision. Loving was in 1967, Roe was in 1973, Obergefell in 2015. [1] https://news.gallup.com/poll/1576/abortion.aspx https://news.gallup.com/poll/1576/abortion.aspx [2] https://news.gallup.com/poll/354638/approval-interracial-marriage-new-high.aspx https://news.gallup.com/poll/354638/approval-interracial-mar... [3] https://news.gallup.com/poll/350486/record-high-support-same-sex-marriage.aspx https://news.gallup.com/poll/350486/record-high-support-same...

s1artibartfast 4y ago
I think your data more or less supports my conclusion. The idea that the conservative supreme court is about to overturn Loving is absurd. 94% of the population supports it and Clarence Thomas is in an interracial marriage himself for heavens sake. Time since decision is a factor as you mention, but the rates of change are an order of magnitude different. Support for gay marriage has increased about 40% in 20 years. Interracial marriage increased 90%! in 70 years. For abortion, "legal under any circumstances" has seen the biggest change and increased ~10% in 50 years. The pro-live/pro-choice chart is even more telling showing stagnation for the last 20 years. Abortion is a complex decision tree with 100s of options and 71% of people fall between the extremes of no-exception legal or illegal [1], and dissatisfaction with current laws is at an all time high [2]. I just don't see the same motivation to overturn Loving and Obergefell which are binary issues the overwhelming majority are happy with. https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2022/05/06/americans-views-on-whether-and-in-what-circumstances-abortion-should-be-legal/pf_05-06-22_abortion-views_1_1/ https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2022/05/06/americans-vi... https://news.gallup.com/poll/283916/dissatisfaction-abortion-laws-new-high.aspx https://news.gallup.com/poll/283916/dissatisfaction-abortion...

by eigen 4y ago

s1artibartfast 4y ago

I think your data more or less supports my conclusion. The idea that the conservative supreme court is about to overturn Loving is absurd. 94% of the population supports it and Clarence Thomas is in an interracial marriage himself for heavens sake. Time since decision is a factor as you mention, but the rates of change are an order of magnitude different. Support for gay marriage has increased about 40% in 20 years. Interracial marriage increased 90%! in 70 years. For abortion, "legal under any circumstances" has seen the biggest change and increased ~10% in 50 years. The pro-live/pro-choice chart is even more telling showing stagnation for the last 20 years. Abortion is a complex decision tree with 100s of options and 71% of people fall between the extremes of no-exception legal or illegal [1], and dissatisfaction with current laws is at an all time high [2]. I just don't see the same motivation to overturn Loving and Obergefell which are binary issues the overwhelming majority are happy with. https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2022/05/06/americans-views-on-whether-and-in-what-circumstances-abortion-should-be-legal/pf_05-06-22_abortion-views_1_1/ https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2022/05/06/americans-vi... https://news.gallup.com/poll/283916/dissatisfaction-abortion-laws-new-high.aspx https://news.gallup.com/poll/283916/dissatisfaction-abortion...