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“ In 2-3 years we will be recovering.” I’m not sure exactly what he meant, I read it as “we will be near the bottom in 2-3 years”. Recovering means something d
by jshen 4y ago
“ In 2-3 years we will be recovering.”
I’m not sure exactly what he meant, I read it as “we will be near the bottom in 2-3 years”. Recovering means something different than recovered.
- sulam 4y agoExactly.
- scarface74 4y agoSo now if we compare it to the dot com bust. It will be 20 years before the recovery….
- jshen 4y agoI believe it was ~13 years before the nasdaq reached the same level as the peak of the dot com bubble. I also find it odd to use the peak as the primary reference point. It was a brief moment in time. For example, if you had invested in the nasdaq in Feb 99 or Nov 2001, instead of Nov 99, it recovered in 7 years. If you started in Aug 98 it recovered in ~5 years. There was rough a window of a year where it would have been really bad to invest, but that is why everyone recommends dollar-cost-averaging (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dollarcostaveraging.asp https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dollarcostaveraging.asp) instead of investing a ton all at once.
- scarface74 4y agoIt was 17 years https://money.com/tech-stocks-recovery-dotcom-crash-bubble/ https://money.com/tech-stocks-recovery-dotcom-crash-bubble/
- jshen 4y agoThat’s using a different index than I used. Neither is right or wrong, hard to define “dot com” bubble stocks precisely
- scarface74 4y agoActually I am wrong. The NASDAQ was the index I should have referred to. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/apr/23/nasdaq-new-record-high-dotcom-bubble https://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/apr/23/nasdaq-new-... It took 15 years.
- sulam 4y agoYa'll are talking past each other. Since I made the comment, I will define my terms more precisely. In 2-3 years someone who consistently invests a fixed portion of their earnings/assets into a weighted vehicle/basket will be enjoying an appreciating net worth. I'm not claiming to be able to call the bottom, but I'm also not measuring "recovering" as peak-to-peak. Peak to peak would be past-tense "recovered".