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I remember the "dotcom crash" of 2000, after which all of the scuttlebutt was about how the internet was a fad and all the related investments were just a giant

I remember the "dotcom crash" of 2000, after which all of the scuttlebutt was about how the internet was a fad and all the related investments were just a giant bubble. The rhetoric I'm hearing today about crypto is strangely reminiscent. How it will turn out, nobody knows, but humility is warranted if history is any guide.

legobmw99 4y ago
This is ripe for survivors bias. Nobody remembers the time people said “X is just a fad”… and it was
- StanislavPetrov 4y ago
  Everyone remembers every time people said "X is just a fad" after that "fad" caused a stock market collapse.
- baskethead 4y ago
  Everyone knew that the Macarena was a fad.
cmrdporcupine 4y ago
People weren't saying the "Internet is a fad" back then. They/we were saying that many of the businesses that were being heavily invested in were unsound because they lacked a real plan towards profitability. Many businesses had no chance of turning profit, but were VC funded like crazy. I worked at a company that was doing "group buy" purchases and the product themselves weren't really getting real group discounts, so they just burned investment money to discount them. Literally buying customers under the thought that getting scale would just eventually solve the problem. And then the whole house of cards fell apart. It wasn't until a few years later, when Google figured it out with AdWords, etc. that people started making real money. There's no inherent reason to assume that this will happen with cryptocurrency.
- blululu 4y ago
  “The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in ‘Metcalfe’s law' becomes apparent: most people have nothing to say to each other! By 2005, it will become clear that the Internet’s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine’s” -Some dude who writes for The New York Times...
  - pingeroo 4y ago
    I wonder when "2005" for crypto will be. Like if we compare them by metrics like maturity of technology, developer attention, VC money, etc, how do "web2" and "web3" compare?
  - KerrAvon 4y ago
    There were some “the Internet is a fad” takes, but it wasn’t a widely held viewpoint. No one pushed back on corporations putting up websites. “Crypto is snake oil” is pretty common right now, and a lot of people are rejecting NFTs. Also, the NYT is often garbage. https://fair.org/take-action/action-alerts/new-york-times-rewrites-iraq-war-history/ https://fair.org/take-action/action-alerts/new-york-times-re... https://nitter.net/DougJBalloon https://nitter.net/DougJBalloon
scarface74 4y ago
No one was saying the internet was a fad. Home broadband was still growing.
pingeroo 4y ago
Not sure why you're getting downvoted. I wasn't even alive during the dotcom bubble but every account I've heard of it sounds similar to the cryptosphere. Insane valuations. People blindly jumping on the bandwagon. Money blindly being thrown around left, right, and centre towards anything 'web3'. Plagued with tremendous amounts of arrogance, greed, and hubris. People buying Lamborghinis and the like. Classic gold rush mania.
- ncmncm 4y ago
  Difference is that the internet was and is a real thing with real value. There were a zillion dotcoms thrown up onto it that offered no such value. Crypto coins and NFTs are like the latter.
  - tradertef 4y ago
    Generalizations are not generally valid. You are putting whole ecosystem into the same bucket. Yes, there are a lot of shitcoins.. But there is also Bitcoin.
    - ncmncm 4y ago
      Which is, itself, down 50%. Only 50% left to go.
      - tradertef 4y ago
        Bitcoin was down 80% before from ATH and recovered stronger. Every time it drops, we do not need to start talking about it going to zero -- roll eyes
- Tiktaalik 4y ago
  It is not the same (I was alive during the dotcom bubble). In contrast to bitcoin/etc, it was always clear how broadly useful the internet would be. Even while companies with inflated valuations like eBay were being battered, a broad amount of the mainstream population was using the sites every day and loving them. It does not feel the same with cryptocoins, where owning an NFT Ape remains some peculiar niche thing and typical people have no relationship with cryptocoins at all.

legobmw99 4y ago

This is ripe for survivors bias. Nobody remembers the time people said “X is just a fad”… and it was

StanislavPetrov 4y ago
Everyone remembers every time people said "X is just a fad" after that "fad" caused a stock market collapse.
baskethead 4y ago
Everyone knew that the Macarena was a fad.

cmrdporcupine 4y ago

People weren't saying the "Internet is a fad" back then. They/we were saying that many of the businesses that were being heavily invested in were unsound because they lacked a real plan towards profitability. Many businesses had no chance of turning profit, but were VC funded like crazy. I worked at a company that was doing "group buy" purchases and the product themselves weren't really getting real group discounts, so they just burned investment money to discount them. Literally buying customers under the thought that getting scale would just eventually solve the problem. And then the whole house of cards fell apart. It wasn't until a few years later, when Google figured it out with AdWords, etc. that people started making real money. There's no inherent reason to assume that this will happen with cryptocurrency.

blululu 4y ago
“The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in ‘Metcalfe’s law' becomes apparent: most people have nothing to say to each other! By 2005, it will become clear that the Internet’s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine’s” -Some dude who writes for The New York Times...
- pingeroo 4y ago
  I wonder when "2005" for crypto will be. Like if we compare them by metrics like maturity of technology, developer attention, VC money, etc, how do "web2" and "web3" compare?
- KerrAvon 4y ago
  There were some “the Internet is a fad” takes, but it wasn’t a widely held viewpoint. No one pushed back on corporations putting up websites. “Crypto is snake oil” is pretty common right now, and a lot of people are rejecting NFTs. Also, the NYT is often garbage. https://fair.org/take-action/action-alerts/new-york-times-rewrites-iraq-war-history/ https://fair.org/take-action/action-alerts/new-york-times-re... https://nitter.net/DougJBalloon https://nitter.net/DougJBalloon

scarface74 4y ago

No one was saying the internet was a fad. Home broadband was still growing.

pingeroo 4y ago

Not sure why you're getting downvoted. I wasn't even alive during the dotcom bubble but every account I've heard of it sounds similar to the cryptosphere. Insane valuations. People blindly jumping on the bandwagon. Money blindly being thrown around left, right, and centre towards anything 'web3'. Plagued with tremendous amounts of arrogance, greed, and hubris. People buying Lamborghinis and the like. Classic gold rush mania.

ncmncm 4y ago
Difference is that the internet was and is a real thing with real value. There were a zillion dotcoms thrown up onto it that offered no such value. Crypto coins and NFTs are like the latter.
- tradertef 4y ago
  Generalizations are not generally valid. You are putting whole ecosystem into the same bucket. Yes, there are a lot of shitcoins.. But there is also Bitcoin.
  - ncmncm 4y ago
    Which is, itself, down 50%. Only 50% left to go.
    - tradertef 4y ago
      Bitcoin was down 80% before from ATH and recovered stronger. Every time it drops, we do not need to start talking about it going to zero -- roll eyes
Tiktaalik 4y ago
It is not the same (I was alive during the dotcom bubble). In contrast to bitcoin/etc, it was always clear how broadly useful the internet would be. Even while companies with inflated valuations like eBay were being battered, a broad amount of the mainstream population was using the sites every day and loving them. It does not feel the same with cryptocoins, where owning an NFT Ape remains some peculiar niche thing and typical people have no relationship with cryptocoins at all.