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Bitcoin price crashes to 2022 low amid crypto market collapse

41 points by elorant 4y ago

kylebenzle 4y ago
_fat_santa 4y ago
I read a comment on Reddit a while back that now reflects how I invest in Crypto: "Buy some crypto, then forget about it for 2-3 years". I'm sure BTC will come back up and I still think it will hit 100K at some point. But it's going to be a hot minute before that happens.
- jc_811 4y ago
  Can I ask where you get the 100k price point from? I am absolutely not trying to start a flame war, or have this dive into an emotional argument about the merits BTC, but am genuinely curious where somebody gets a price point from since from my eyes I can't tell how to derive any sort of "intrinsic value" from cryptocurrency. Would appreciate any sort of response or analysis!
  - blagie 4y ago
    I believe the basic idea is that people need a value store. We just saw billions of dollars of oligarch money held in Western institutions disappear in a poof. The Ruble is way up as it's no longer safe to keep money out of Russia. It's unsafe to keep money in Russia. There really aren't safe value stores. Anything can be confiscated by aggressive government (and money inflates). There's a huge market among rich people for: * > $1M paintings are portable, and a ready store of value * > $100k watches are enough to start a new life on, in some random part of South America, Africa, or Asia, and fit on your wrist ... and so on. I can now have a USB stick with a value of $100M, and relatively untraceable if I'm careful about it. If I had $100B, that'd be a handy safety. Rich people aren't just Elon Musk and Zuckerberg. They also include a lot of people with ill-gotten wealth (e.g. crooks), questionable individuals (e.g. African oligarchs), or people with properly-gotten wealth that might be fragile in future political changes (e.g. Arab nobility).
    - jc_811 4y ago
      For sure, I totally get that. I'm not saying there's no value, but I can't find out where people get specific numbers from (eg. 100k per bitcoin). Where does this 100k come from? Is it just pulled out of the air because it's higher than the current price? Is there any sort of formula, or step by step quantitative analysis, that is able to arrive at a fair market value? For example if bitcoin were being traded at 5k or 100k, everything you said in your examples would still be valid.
      - acchow 4y ago
        $100k is not the final price. They are just saying $100k as a nice round psychological milestone on its way to the moon. Bitcoin market cap is $600bn today. Total value of all gold in the world is about 9.6tn. The crypto shills are trying to push the idea that Bitcoin can replace gold.
        AnimalMuppet 4y ago
        Wait, Bitcoin has 6% of the market cap of gold? That's really impressive. More than I expected Bitcoin to achieve, in fact.
    - Traster 4y ago
      I think this is seriously going to degrade as crypto exchanges come under AML and KYC regulations. Liquidity is overwhelmingly moving to centralized exchanges and those exchanges have to support transfers to/from fiat currency which basically means they'll all end up implementing standard AML/KYC checks for any reasonable size of transactions. So yeah you might be able to store some value in this incredibly volatile speculative asset, but when it comes time to liquidate it's going to become very difficult to find a counter-party who'll hand over cash. At that point the question is what are you getting? 90 cents on the dollar? 10 cents on the dollar? I'm not sure that sort of liquidity beats other money laundering schemes.
      - aaaaaaaaata 4y ago
        > Liquidity is overwhelmingly moving to centralized exchanges Is it? Or are new people flooding into centralized exchanges faster than existing people are [(flooding into defi)+(moving to defi)]?
- hcknwscommenter 4y ago
  Is there something about 100K that makes it a reasonable price target? It's a nice round number but so is 10K, or 0K for that matter. I own some BTC, but more to hedge against the possibility that I am wrong about it than any other reason.
  - cyanydeez 4y ago
    I assume the bots, who ultimately control movements, are programmed to follow arbitrary round numbers assuming stupid humans trade more.
  - clover15flower 4y ago
    Don't forget that the market is cyclical. $100,000 is far from the limit. I see the current price as a great entry point into a long BTC position or an opportunity to buy some BTC into a long-term crypto portfolio. As a matter of fact, I already did those two actions on wowswap exchange, opening a long position from a price of $31,450
- nostrademons 4y ago
  It's better to do that in reverse: "Forget about crypto. Set a reminder to buy some in 12-18 months. When the reminder goes off, buy it. Hold for another 2 years or until all your friends tell you to buy." If you buy now, when it's in the popular imagination, you're almost guaranteed to buy at a top. You want to buy when everyone has forgotten about crypto and moved onto the next thing.
  - acchow 4y ago
    > until all your friends tell you to buy. As far as I can tell, everyone and their dog has been saying to buy crypto since crypto hit $10k a second time in 2020 Regardless, I think the crypto bubble is just a reflection of central bank money printing. If they do resume QE (which we're not sure will actually happen), then you can expect crypto prices to rise again
    - nostrademons 4y ago
      Yeah, and the time to buy crypto was in early 2019 or late 2018 when BTC was going for $3-4K.
Traster 4y ago
Honestly, I feel stupider every time I read anything about crypto. Things like >analysts warning it could form part of a longer-term bear market if it does not bottom out soon. Well yes, if the price keeps going down, that would by definition be a longer-term bear market. So much of this "analysis" is just magic numbers or bullshit. Look at this Index! That's not an index, that's measuring a mix of volatility, momentum and reddit comments. Ugh!
- PretzelPirate 4y ago
  These types of comments are made about traditional investments as well. It’s all about pumping out articles to get ad views.
  - cyanydeez 4y ago
    But with crypto there's absolutely no fundamental information. For the market, people can choose what bundle of companies you think move it. With crypto, the best you can say is "well, this ponzi scheme only got a few scammers involved"

41 points by elorant 4y ago

I read a comment on Reddit a while back that now reflects how I invest in Crypto: "Buy some crypto, then forget about it for 2-3 years". I'm sure BTC will come back up and I still think it will hit 100K at some point. But it's going to be a hot minute before that happens.

jc_811 4y ago
Can I ask where you get the 100k price point from? I am absolutely not trying to start a flame war, or have this dive into an emotional argument about the merits BTC, but am genuinely curious where somebody gets a price point from since from my eyes I can't tell how to derive any sort of "intrinsic value" from cryptocurrency. Would appreciate any sort of response or analysis!
- blagie 4y ago
  I believe the basic idea is that people need a value store. We just saw billions of dollars of oligarch money held in Western institutions disappear in a poof. The Ruble is way up as it's no longer safe to keep money out of Russia. It's unsafe to keep money in Russia. There really aren't safe value stores. Anything can be confiscated by aggressive government (and money inflates). There's a huge market among rich people for: * > $1M paintings are portable, and a ready store of value * > $100k watches are enough to start a new life on, in some random part of South America, Africa, or Asia, and fit on your wrist ... and so on. I can now have a USB stick with a value of $100M, and relatively untraceable if I'm careful about it. If I had $100B, that'd be a handy safety. Rich people aren't just Elon Musk and Zuckerberg. They also include a lot of people with ill-gotten wealth (e.g. crooks), questionable individuals (e.g. African oligarchs), or people with properly-gotten wealth that might be fragile in future political changes (e.g. Arab nobility).
  - jc_811 4y ago
    For sure, I totally get that. I'm not saying there's no value, but I can't find out where people get specific numbers from (eg. 100k per bitcoin). Where does this 100k come from? Is it just pulled out of the air because it's higher than the current price? Is there any sort of formula, or step by step quantitative analysis, that is able to arrive at a fair market value? For example if bitcoin were being traded at 5k or 100k, everything you said in your examples would still be valid.
    - acchow 4y ago
      $100k is not the final price. They are just saying $100k as a nice round psychological milestone on its way to the moon. Bitcoin market cap is $600bn today. Total value of all gold in the world is about 9.6tn. The crypto shills are trying to push the idea that Bitcoin can replace gold.
      - AnimalMuppet 4y ago
        Wait, Bitcoin has 6% of the market cap of gold? That's really impressive. More than I expected Bitcoin to achieve, in fact.
  - Traster 4y ago
    I think this is seriously going to degrade as crypto exchanges come under AML and KYC regulations. Liquidity is overwhelmingly moving to centralized exchanges and those exchanges have to support transfers to/from fiat currency which basically means they'll all end up implementing standard AML/KYC checks for any reasonable size of transactions. So yeah you might be able to store some value in this incredibly volatile speculative asset, but when it comes time to liquidate it's going to become very difficult to find a counter-party who'll hand over cash. At that point the question is what are you getting? 90 cents on the dollar? 10 cents on the dollar? I'm not sure that sort of liquidity beats other money laundering schemes.
    - aaaaaaaaata 4y ago
      > Liquidity is overwhelmingly moving to centralized exchanges Is it? Or are new people flooding into centralized exchanges faster than existing people are [(flooding into defi)+(moving to defi)]?
hcknwscommenter 4y ago
Is there something about 100K that makes it a reasonable price target? It's a nice round number but so is 10K, or 0K for that matter. I own some BTC, but more to hedge against the possibility that I am wrong about it than any other reason.
- cyanydeez 4y ago
  I assume the bots, who ultimately control movements, are programmed to follow arbitrary round numbers assuming stupid humans trade more.
- clover15flower 4y ago
  Don't forget that the market is cyclical. $100,000 is far from the limit. I see the current price as a great entry point into a long BTC position or an opportunity to buy some BTC into a long-term crypto portfolio. As a matter of fact, I already did those two actions on wowswap exchange, opening a long position from a price of $31,450
nostrademons 4y ago
It's better to do that in reverse: "Forget about crypto. Set a reminder to buy some in 12-18 months. When the reminder goes off, buy it. Hold for another 2 years or until all your friends tell you to buy." If you buy now, when it's in the popular imagination, you're almost guaranteed to buy at a top. You want to buy when everyone has forgotten about crypto and moved onto the next thing.
- acchow 4y ago
  > until all your friends tell you to buy. As far as I can tell, everyone and their dog has been saying to buy crypto since crypto hit $10k a second time in 2020 Regardless, I think the crypto bubble is just a reflection of central bank money printing. If they do resume QE (which we're not sure will actually happen), then you can expect crypto prices to rise again
  - nostrademons 4y ago
    Yeah, and the time to buy crypto was in early 2019 or late 2018 when BTC was going for $3-4K.

Traster 4y ago

Honestly, I feel stupider every time I read anything about crypto. Things like >analysts warning it could form part of a longer-term bear market if it does not bottom out soon. Well yes, if the price keeps going down, that would by definition be a longer-term bear market. So much of this "analysis" is just magic numbers or bullshit. Look at this Index! That's not an index, that's measuring a mix of volatility, momentum and reddit comments. Ugh!

PretzelPirate 4y ago
These types of comments are made about traditional investments as well. It’s all about pumping out articles to get ad views.
- cyanydeez 4y ago
  But with crypto there's absolutely no fundamental information. For the market, people can choose what bundle of companies you think move it. With crypto, the best you can say is "well, this ponzi scheme only got a few scammers involved"