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It's not unreasonable to think of POS as vaporware since it was first announced as coming in 2017. However this time around they have working implementations i

It's not unreasonable to think of POS as vaporware since it was first announced as coming in 2017. However this time around they have working implementations in all relevant clients which are being stress tested and debugged since a few months. So far there have been quite a few bugs but nothing fundamental. I'd say it's not unrealistic to expect the switch happening this summer according to the unofficial time line. There are a few billion dollars staked already and those funds as are locked until it happens. I fully agree with your other point.

mort96 4y ago
The technology isn't the difficult part though. Will miners replace PoW with PoS? What will they do with all the GPUs and cheap access to electricity they've invested millions or billions in? The social aspects transition will be immensely more difficult than the technological aspects. But I do hope that, somehow, all those miners will just... accept the move to PoS and turn off their mining farms. I just don't see it as extremely likely.
- arlcode 4y ago
  As I wrote in another comment, the miners are not really in control once there is an alternative solution. They can continue using POW (if they manage to coordinate an independent self-destruct mechanism override) however they cannot force the actual users (private individuals and infrastructure providers) to do so. If miners don't manage to capture a significant fraction of ETH value in their hypothetical ETHPOW chain it won't be worth their effort. Buying a GPU for mining now caries a significant business risk and prices are already declining. PS: There are billions of dollars already staked in the (currently empty) POS chain.
  - mort96 4y ago
    Well, we'll see I guess. I certainly hope you're right. But PoS has been "right around the corner" for the last half decade at least, so I'll believe it when I see it. I do wonder what miners would do with all their hardware and infrastructure tho. Presumably they'll all just move to another cryptocurrency and nothing really changed, etherium got a little cleaner while bitcoin or whatever got a little dirtier.
    - arlcode 4y ago
      A sensible approach :) Let's hope that POW turns out to be a very brief (in the great scheme of things) peak of human creativity / stupidity.

mort96 4y ago

The technology isn't the difficult part though. Will miners replace PoW with PoS? What will they do with all the GPUs and cheap access to electricity they've invested millions or billions in? The social aspects transition will be immensely more difficult than the technological aspects. But I do hope that, somehow, all those miners will just... accept the move to PoS and turn off their mining farms. I just don't see it as extremely likely.

arlcode 4y ago
As I wrote in another comment, the miners are not really in control once there is an alternative solution. They can continue using POW (if they manage to coordinate an independent self-destruct mechanism override) however they cannot force the actual users (private individuals and infrastructure providers) to do so. If miners don't manage to capture a significant fraction of ETH value in their hypothetical ETHPOW chain it won't be worth their effort. Buying a GPU for mining now caries a significant business risk and prices are already declining. PS: There are billions of dollars already staked in the (currently empty) POS chain.
- mort96 4y ago
  Well, we'll see I guess. I certainly hope you're right. But PoS has been "right around the corner" for the last half decade at least, so I'll believe it when I see it. I do wonder what miners would do with all their hardware and infrastructure tho. Presumably they'll all just move to another cryptocurrency and nothing really changed, etherium got a little cleaner while bitcoin or whatever got a little dirtier.
  - arlcode 4y ago
    A sensible approach :) Let's hope that POW turns out to be a very brief (in the great scheme of things) peak of human creativity / stupidity.