3 ms·

I have yet to see the evidence that not-buying-rubles / sanctions have had an effect on the strategical and tactical goals Russia government and its armed force

by oxff 4y ago

I have yet to see the evidence that not-buying-rubles / sanctions have had an effect on the strategical and tactical goals Russia government and its armed forces have placed for themselves in Ukraine. This just seems to be assumed for some reason, as if Russia would see themselves as MBA Consulting Firm and simply drop the conflict when they get financially sanctioned. iow. the sanctions are ineffective in their stated / assumed purpose (deterring, that is, modifying Russia's behavior wrt. the war, I do not believe they've discouraged or hampered Russia in their war at all).

rich_sasha 4y ago
Russia has to halt their tank production as they cant source the right components anymore. They were already struggling with military nets production before the 2022 sanctions, just based on the post-Crimea ones; a number of buyers refused to take delivery as jets came without key equipment that Russia could no longer make. It only got worse for them now.
- oxff 4y ago
  You would have to provide some argument and evidence that (i) Russia has to stop tank production, and that (ii) this was due to sanctions, and that (iii) this will alter their strategic and tactical goals in Ukraine. The third part is the most important part. Showing that these sanctions somehow have deterred Russia in its military posture. I find the idea ridiculous.
  - ido 4y ago
    It’s not just about their ambitions but also about their ability. It seems so far that they are barely capable of winning against a much smaller force.
  - rich_sasha 4y ago
    First two points: https://www.reuters.com/business/us-official-says-export-curbs-russia-hit-car-production-tank-building-2022-03-30/ https://www.reuters.com/business/us-official-says-export-cur... Russia seems hell-bent on going through with this war. Their losses already justify withdrawing, sanctions or not. The calculus for them is clearly not about a net cost-benefit calculation. PerhPs because it is a despotic kleptocracy? So an immediate reaction is not really the goal.

by oxff 4y ago

rich_sasha 4y ago

Russia has to halt their tank production as they cant source the right components anymore. They were already struggling with military nets production before the 2022 sanctions, just based on the post-Crimea ones; a number of buyers refused to take delivery as jets came without key equipment that Russia could no longer make. It only got worse for them now.

oxff 4y ago
You would have to provide some argument and evidence that (i) Russia has to stop tank production, and that (ii) this was due to sanctions, and that (iii) this will alter their strategic and tactical goals in Ukraine. The third part is the most important part. Showing that these sanctions somehow have deterred Russia in its military posture. I find the idea ridiculous.
- ido 4y ago
  It’s not just about their ambitions but also about their ability. It seems so far that they are barely capable of winning against a much smaller force.
- rich_sasha 4y ago
  First two points: https://www.reuters.com/business/us-official-says-export-curbs-russia-hit-car-production-tank-building-2022-03-30/ https://www.reuters.com/business/us-official-says-export-cur... Russia seems hell-bent on going through with this war. Their losses already justify withdrawing, sanctions or not. The calculus for them is clearly not about a net cost-benefit calculation. PerhPs because it is a despotic kleptocracy? So an immediate reaction is not really the goal.