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It’s not just about how much money you can make though - buying rubles helps Russia continue policies (hopefully) considered ethically wrong, such as waging war

by ido 4y ago

It’s not just about how much money you can make though - buying rubles helps Russia continue policies (hopefully) considered ethically wrong, such as waging war in Ukraine.

oxff 4y ago
I have yet to see the evidence that not-buying-rubles / sanctions have had an effect on the strategical and tactical goals Russia government and its armed forces have placed for themselves in Ukraine. This just seems to be assumed for some reason, as if Russia would see themselves as MBA Consulting Firm and simply drop the conflict when they get financially sanctioned. iow. the sanctions are ineffective in their stated / assumed purpose (deterring, that is, modifying Russia's behavior wrt. the war, I do not believe they've discouraged or hampered Russia in their war at all).
- rich_sasha 4y ago
  Russia has to halt their tank production as they cant source the right components anymore. They were already struggling with military nets production before the 2022 sanctions, just based on the post-Crimea ones; a number of buyers refused to take delivery as jets came without key equipment that Russia could no longer make. It only got worse for them now.
  - oxff 4y ago
    You would have to provide some argument and evidence that (i) Russia has to stop tank production, and that (ii) this was due to sanctions, and that (iii) this will alter their strategic and tactical goals in Ukraine. The third part is the most important part. Showing that these sanctions somehow have deterred Russia in its military posture. I find the idea ridiculous.
    - ido 4y ago
      It’s not just about their ambitions but also about their ability. It seems so far that they are barely capable of winning against a much smaller force.
    - rich_sasha 4y ago
      First two points: https://www.reuters.com/business/us-official-says-export-curbs-russia-hit-car-production-tank-building-2022-03-30/ https://www.reuters.com/business/us-official-says-export-cur... Russia seems hell-bent on going through with this war. Their losses already justify withdrawing, sanctions or not. The calculus for them is clearly not about a net cost-benefit calculation. PerhPs because it is a despotic kleptocracy? So an immediate reaction is not really the goal.
DevKoala 4y ago
My point is that the Rubble/USD trade pair was used by the media as an indicator of Russia’s economic weakness, and it rebounded just like nothing. Also, if you look at some of the top American financial institutions, they continued trading with Russia and you bet they made cash on a Rubble/USD pairing trade. Nevertheless, nobody is calling these financial institutions unethical or amoral. However, a middle class person trying to make a buck on the opportunity is somehow amoral. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/us-banks-will-keep-toe-russia-despite-wind-downs-2022-03-15/ https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/us-banks-will-keep-...
- ido 4y ago
  I absolutely call these financial institutions amoral.

by ido 4y ago

It’s not just about how much money you can make though - buying rubles helps Russia continue policies (hopefully) considered ethically wrong, such as waging war in Ukraine.

oxff 4y ago

I have yet to see the evidence that not-buying-rubles / sanctions have had an effect on the strategical and tactical goals Russia government and its armed forces have placed for themselves in Ukraine. This just seems to be assumed for some reason, as if Russia would see themselves as MBA Consulting Firm and simply drop the conflict when they get financially sanctioned. iow. the sanctions are ineffective in their stated / assumed purpose (deterring, that is, modifying Russia's behavior wrt. the war, I do not believe they've discouraged or hampered Russia in their war at all).

rich_sasha 4y ago
Russia has to halt their tank production as they cant source the right components anymore. They were already struggling with military nets production before the 2022 sanctions, just based on the post-Crimea ones; a number of buyers refused to take delivery as jets came without key equipment that Russia could no longer make. It only got worse for them now.
- oxff 4y ago
  You would have to provide some argument and evidence that (i) Russia has to stop tank production, and that (ii) this was due to sanctions, and that (iii) this will alter their strategic and tactical goals in Ukraine. The third part is the most important part. Showing that these sanctions somehow have deterred Russia in its military posture. I find the idea ridiculous.
  - ido 4y ago
    It’s not just about their ambitions but also about their ability. It seems so far that they are barely capable of winning against a much smaller force.
  - rich_sasha 4y ago
    First two points: https://www.reuters.com/business/us-official-says-export-curbs-russia-hit-car-production-tank-building-2022-03-30/ https://www.reuters.com/business/us-official-says-export-cur... Russia seems hell-bent on going through with this war. Their losses already justify withdrawing, sanctions or not. The calculus for them is clearly not about a net cost-benefit calculation. PerhPs because it is a despotic kleptocracy? So an immediate reaction is not really the goal.

DevKoala 4y ago

My point is that the Rubble/USD trade pair was used by the media as an indicator of Russia’s economic weakness, and it rebounded just like nothing. Also, if you look at some of the top American financial institutions, they continued trading with Russia and you bet they made cash on a Rubble/USD pairing trade. Nevertheless, nobody is calling these financial institutions unethical or amoral. However, a middle class person trying to make a buck on the opportunity is somehow amoral. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/us-banks-will-keep-toe-russia-despite-wind-downs-2022-03-15/ https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/us-banks-will-keep-...

ido 4y ago
I absolutely call these financial institutions amoral.