3 ms·

I believe the latest IPCC report on climate change expected outcome even for the worst scenario had a noticeable decrease in the rate of growth of the global ec

I believe the latest IPCC report on climate change expected outcome even for the worst scenario had a noticeable decrease in the rate of growth of the global economy - not a contraction, just slower growth. We do not seem to be on track for a global contraction of economy, not even in the face of climate change. And economic growth is already (though not that recently) somewhat decoupled from growth in greenhouse gas emission, so any actions taken to reduce climate consequences do not have to be at the cost of stopping global growth, much less intentionally contracting global economy; and in fact the only actions likely to be taken in practice are those which don't stop economic growth - the general population, especially those in poorer countries (even those directly harmed by climate change) will not accept that cost.

tsimionescu 4y ago
> I believe the latest IPCC report on climate change expected outcome even for the worst scenario had a noticeable decrease in the rate of growth of the global economy - not a contraction, just slower growth. We do not seem to be on track for a global contraction of economy, not even in the face of climate change. The reports do talk about economic contraction after the year 2050 if we don't reach the 2 C temperature goals. They also don't model the likely resource wars that will happen if large parts of Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Mexico etc will become uninhabitable by the end of the century, due to rising temperatures and water levels. > And economic growth is already (though not that recently) somewhat decoupled from growth in greenhouse gas emission, so any actions taken to reduce climate consequences do not have to be at the cost of stopping global growth, much less intentionally contracting global economy The IPCC reports says that GHG emissions increase is mostly proportional to GDP increase throughout all regions, with a significant, though smaller, contribution from population increase. It's also notable that GHG emissions continue to increase - we are not anywhere near a plan for net 0, and nothing suggests so far that we are even likely to start reducing GHG emissions, globally or even in any particular region.

tsimionescu 4y ago

> I believe the latest IPCC report on climate change expected outcome even for the worst scenario had a noticeable decrease in the rate of growth of the global economy - not a contraction, just slower growth. We do not seem to be on track for a global contraction of economy, not even in the face of climate change. The reports do talk about economic contraction after the year 2050 if we don't reach the 2 C temperature goals. They also don't model the likely resource wars that will happen if large parts of Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Mexico etc will become uninhabitable by the end of the century, due to rising temperatures and water levels. > And economic growth is already (though not that recently) somewhat decoupled from growth in greenhouse gas emission, so any actions taken to reduce climate consequences do not have to be at the cost of stopping global growth, much less intentionally contracting global economy The IPCC reports says that GHG emissions increase is mostly proportional to GDP increase throughout all regions, with a significant, though smaller, contribution from population increase. It's also notable that GHG emissions continue to increase - we are not anywhere near a plan for net 0, and nothing suggests so far that we are even likely to start reducing GHG emissions, globally or even in any particular region.