In the short term, Russia has the military advantage. In the medium term, Ukraine will probably gain the advantage, but it's unclear if it will be sufficient to

In the short term, Russia has the military advantage. In the medium term, Ukraine will probably gain the advantage, but it's unclear if it will be sufficient to drive the Russian forces out quickly enough. Because in the long term, Ukrainian economy and infrastructure are collapsing, and they still have something like 35 million civilians to feed. Fossil fuels are particularly problematic. If Ukraine can't import energy from Russia, Belarus, or over the Black Sea, the only remaining choice is Europe. But Europe is facing a shortage of its own, because most countries are trying to phase out energy imports from Russia. If they can't buy enough for their own needs, they may not share enough with Ukraine.