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Here's mine for 2032. 1. There will be more robots, and these will be of greater geospatial and socioeconomic distribution, reducing human workloads but furthe
by contingencies 5y ago
Here's mine for 2032.
1. There will be more robots, and these will be of greater geospatial and socioeconomic distribution, reducing human workloads but further centralizing human wealth. Most of them will be specialized automatons and Musk's promise of an general purpose walkabout humanoid assistant for under the cost of a 2022 vehicle ("complexity and cost of a car is greater than that of a humanoid robot") will be a laughable historic footnote.
2. The environment will continue to degrade. The last coral reefs and forests will become fervently defended, the reefs will die anyway.
3. Water shortages will be averted through emergent filtration technologies.
4. Food shortages will be a real problem due to supply chain shocks, partly due to climate, and the quality of food available to large portions of the human population will degrade in terms of freshness, choice and nutrient content. McSubstance-style synthfoods will continue to be culturally normalized, as we can see from marginalized populations in the developing world today.
5. The number of people using sit-down computer terminals will further decrease. We may see less typing, less sit-down, less manual procedural programming, less human programming and less human architecture. At least one autonomous software architect and implementation system will have eliminated substantial numbers of programming plumbing tasks. Voice interfaces will improve to decent for abstract concepts such as search, visualization, and associated process modeling.
6. Although online education resources will remain available, the social exclusivity afforded by elite universities will continue to bring unequal opportunities to the first world.
7. Statecoins will be a nontrivial portion of the global economy, led by China.
8. Law will become more transparent and objective (rule-based) with autonomous enforcement and greater physical and virtual surveillance becoming culturally normalized worldwide.
9. Supply chain will be rewritten with autonomous systems to allow for greater reputational transparency in general sourcing. Significant numbers of sales and purchasing jobs will be eviscerated. The technology may start in and escape from an economy that doesn't want this change to occur for sociopolitical stability reasons, to become a global phenomenon.
10. Personal transport may increasingly tend toward an abnormal luxury for most of the world, as the 1950s suburban utopia fades from memory and a new dense urban service-fabric replaces it.