3 ms·
It's unfortunately legit, one of the many stories that should be highly important but gets buried because it doesn't line up with the nice optimistic story abou
by native_samples 4y ago
It's unfortunately legit, one of the many stories that should be highly important but gets buried because it doesn't line up with the nice optimistic story about human ingenuity and success we'd all like to believe.
The problem is that COVID vaccine effectiveness started dropping almost immediately after the rollout began and never stopped falling. It dropped below zero quite some time ago, according to UK data. That is, vaccinated people get COVID at higher rates than the unvaccinated do. And this is not a tiny effect but a massive one - by the time they stopped publishing the data the UK rates were something like COVID being 4x-5x more frequent in the vaccinated population (per 100k). This also shows up in data from New Zealand, Denmark, it was showing up in Scottish data until that was hidden and a few other places iirc.
If effectiveness is below zero, then give that vaccines have side effects which are sometimes deadly, it's impossible for vaccines to save more than they kill. Even if they did so originally, with time that will be cancelled out unless the fall in effectiveness goes into reverse.
This is obviously very difficult to believe. I was astonished when I first learned about this. Some countries report very different statistics so the obvious question is why do e.g. US authorities report great effectiveness when other places report negative effectiveness. A word of advice: only investigate this question if you're ready to have your confidence in public health and government destroyed. The amount of mendacious statistical game playing that goes on around vaccine effectiveness is appalling. The average public health agency won't even think twice before redefining basic terms to ensure the outcomes they want. It seems to be a basic structural issue with public health because the same agencies that are tasked with collecting and reporting effectiveness data are also tasked with getting everyone to take vaccines. They see data as a way to create compliance, not objectively reflect reality.
The underlying biological problem appears to be a form of immune system over-fitting. It learns to respond to the spike protein it was trained with via the vaccine, which is the long since extinct 2019 Wuhan strain. Then it misfires when challenged with the real virus because it can't tell the difference, so you make antibodies designed to dock with the extinct strain and the newer virus isn't stopped by it. People who aren't vaccinated have fresh immune systems that haven't been over-trained and generate more accurate antibodies, so the infection is stopped quicker and they don't get sick as much.
The existence of this effect (with the odd name of OAS) has now been proven in various scientific studies. In particular, it's been proven in studies of new mRNA vaccines targeting the Omicron spike. One reason we don't have new vaccines for Omicron is that they don't work. People who were already vaccinated with the original vaccine just produce antibodies for the old antigens in response to the new vaccine. The ability to differentiate is somehow lost.