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I wanted to say the same thing. He moved the goal posts from things which "would draw hoots of derision from an audience from the year 2022" to things which the
by karaterobot 5y ago
I wanted to say the same thing. He moved the goal posts from things which "would draw hoots of derision from an audience from the year 2022" to things which there has been some marginal, unevenly distributed, incremental change to in the last 10 years, then said he got it about 50% right.
More generally, this is the issue I have with futurists: they get things wrong, and then just keep making more predictions. I suppose that's okay for them to do, unless they try to get people to believe them, and make decisions based on their guesses.
Maybe I should say this is really a problem I have with people who give any credence whatsoever to the foretune telling industry, to which "future studies" seems at least practically related.
- chillacy 5y agoReminded me of the ray kurtzweil predictions: extremely generous grading. This issue of grading fuzzy predictions is somewhat applicable to political pundits and stock market gurus as well. There's an entire body of knowledge on how to create objectively measurable predictions (the book Superforecasting covers), but the mainstream isn't there yet.