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I like how the author gives himself a 5 out of 10. That’s BS. At most it’s a 1 out of 10 (waiting for a taxi). I hate it when “futurists” cherry pick an outlie

I like how the author gives himself a 5 out of 10. That’s BS. At most it’s a 1 out of 10 (waiting for a taxi). I hate it when “futurists” cherry pick an outlier situation and say their prediction was accurate - like the bartender example. When people Read these predictions, they assume it’s going to be a widely occurring instance, not some cockamamie example

newobj 4y ago
This person was like 0/10. I almost spat out my coffee when they said 5/10. I could not have predicted that
- rossdavidh 4y ago
  One might greet it with "hoots of derision", though.
jamesrom 4y ago
I’d go 0 out 10. Waiting for taxi/uber/etc is still very much a thing.
karaterobot 4y ago
I wanted to say the same thing. He moved the goal posts from things which "would draw hoots of derision from an audience from the year 2022" to things which there has been some marginal, unevenly distributed, incremental change to in the last 10 years, then said he got it about 50% right. More generally, this is the issue I have with futurists: they get things wrong, and then just keep making more predictions. I suppose that's okay for them to do, unless they try to get people to believe them, and make decisions based on their guesses. Maybe I should say this is really a problem I have with people who give any credence whatsoever to the foretune telling industry, to which "future studies" seems at least practically related.
- chillacy 4y ago
  Reminded me of the ray kurtzweil predictions: extremely generous grading. This issue of grading fuzzy predictions is somewhat applicable to political pundits and stock market gurus as well. There's an entire body of knowledge on how to create objectively measurable predictions (the book Superforecasting covers), but the mainstream isn't there yet.
PheonixPharts 4y ago
Not only that but most of his correct "predictions" would have been true in 2012 using is very definitions of success. It doesn't really count as a prediction if it's already existing and adoption is growing before your eyes. - traffic jams: GPS was widely used well before 2012, and by 2012 iphone adoption was already quite high. Plenty of people were already using google maps for directions with traffic info. - Attracting a bar-tender's attention. The ipad came out in 2010 and I definitely recall a few novelty "order with an ipad" applications popping up right away. Sure the penetration wasn't that deep, but it existed and still isn't anywhere near universal today. - Recharging gadgets. This has probably changed the most since 2012, but USB ports were already starting to show up in airplanes and hipper hotel rooms. - Replacing used up items. Sure instacart was just starting out in 2012, but Task Rabbit had been around for a few years, and at least in SF, was used by a fair number of people. - Waiting for a taxi. Uber was founded in 2009, and I distinctly remember it had already dominated SF by that point. Sure it hadn't expanded to other cities yet, but taxis in the Bay area where already widely replaced. Uber was arguably better in SF in 2012 than it is in 2022
- thewebcount 4y ago
  Regarding this one: > - Attracting a bar-tender's attention. The ipad came out in 2010 and I definitely recall a few novelty "order with an ipad" applications popping up right away. Sure the penetration wasn't that deep, but it existed and still isn't anywhere near universal today. Just before the pandemic my spouse and I went to a TGI Friday’s for the first time in about 15 years. Every table now has an iPad where you can request drink refills, dessert, etc. and the kids can play games. It was super distracting, flashing at us the entire time. We ended up turning it around so we didn’t have to see it. But apparently all the restaurants like that (Chili’s, Appleby’s, Olive Garden, etc.) have these now. They are ubiquitous if that’s the type of place you eat. (Granted, it’s not at a bar, but at a restaurant.) It is much more convenient than trying to get your server’s attention when you want a water refill or whatever, but like I said, also really irritating to have it constantly demanding your attention.
deleted 4y ago
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aaron695 4y ago

newobj 4y ago

This person was like 0/10. I almost spat out my coffee when they said 5/10. I could not have predicted that

rossdavidh 4y ago
One might greet it with "hoots of derision", though.

jamesrom 4y ago

I’d go 0 out 10. Waiting for taxi/uber/etc is still very much a thing.

karaterobot 4y ago

I wanted to say the same thing. He moved the goal posts from things which "would draw hoots of derision from an audience from the year 2022" to things which there has been some marginal, unevenly distributed, incremental change to in the last 10 years, then said he got it about 50% right. More generally, this is the issue I have with futurists: they get things wrong, and then just keep making more predictions. I suppose that's okay for them to do, unless they try to get people to believe them, and make decisions based on their guesses. Maybe I should say this is really a problem I have with people who give any credence whatsoever to the foretune telling industry, to which "future studies" seems at least practically related.

chillacy 4y ago
Reminded me of the ray kurtzweil predictions: extremely generous grading. This issue of grading fuzzy predictions is somewhat applicable to political pundits and stock market gurus as well. There's an entire body of knowledge on how to create objectively measurable predictions (the book Superforecasting covers), but the mainstream isn't there yet.

PheonixPharts 4y ago

Not only that but most of his correct "predictions" would have been true in 2012 using is very definitions of success. It doesn't really count as a prediction if it's already existing and adoption is growing before your eyes. - traffic jams: GPS was widely used well before 2012, and by 2012 iphone adoption was already quite high. Plenty of people were already using google maps for directions with traffic info. - Attracting a bar-tender's attention. The ipad came out in 2010 and I definitely recall a few novelty "order with an ipad" applications popping up right away. Sure the penetration wasn't that deep, but it existed and still isn't anywhere near universal today. - Recharging gadgets. This has probably changed the most since 2012, but USB ports were already starting to show up in airplanes and hipper hotel rooms. - Replacing used up items. Sure instacart was just starting out in 2012, but Task Rabbit had been around for a few years, and at least in SF, was used by a fair number of people. - Waiting for a taxi. Uber was founded in 2009, and I distinctly remember it had already dominated SF by that point. Sure it hadn't expanded to other cities yet, but taxis in the Bay area where already widely replaced. Uber was arguably better in SF in 2012 than it is in 2022

thewebcount 4y ago
Regarding this one: > - Attracting a bar-tender's attention. The ipad came out in 2010 and I definitely recall a few novelty "order with an ipad" applications popping up right away. Sure the penetration wasn't that deep, but it existed and still isn't anywhere near universal today. Just before the pandemic my spouse and I went to a TGI Friday’s for the first time in about 15 years. Every table now has an iPad where you can request drink refills, dessert, etc. and the kids can play games. It was super distracting, flashing at us the entire time. We ended up turning it around so we didn’t have to see it. But apparently all the restaurants like that (Chili’s, Appleby’s, Olive Garden, etc.) have these now. They are ubiquitous if that’s the type of place you eat. (Granted, it’s not at a bar, but at a restaurant.) It is much more convenient than trying to get your server’s attention when you want a water refill or whatever, but like I said, also really irritating to have it constantly demanding your attention.

deleted 4y ago

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aaron695 4y ago