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You are quoting someone who is egregiously misquoting and misunderstanding what Elon said in that recent earnings call. What he actually said: Of any technolog

You are quoting someone who is egregiously misquoting and misunderstanding what Elon said in that recent earnings call. What he actually said: Of any technology development I’ve ever been involved in, I’ve never really seen more false dawns, or where it seems like we’re going to break through but we don’t as I’ve seen in full self-driving. And ultimately what it comes down to is that to solve full self-driving, you actually have to solve real world artificial intelligence. Which nobody has solved. The whole road system is made for biological neural nets and eyes. And so actually, when you think about it, in order to solve full self-driving, we have to solve neural nets and cameras to a degree of a capability that is on par with, and will really exceeds humans. And I think we will achieve that this year. The best way to reach your own assessment is to join the Tesla full self-driving beta program. We have over 100,000 people right now enrolled in that program. And we expect to broaden that significantly this year. So that’s my recommendation is join the full self-driving beta program, and experience it for yourself. And take note of the rate of improvement with every release. And we put out a new release roughly every two weeks. And you’ll see a little bit of two steps forward, one step back. But overall, the rate of improvement is incredibly quick. So that’s my recommendation for reaching your own assessment is, literally try it.

themacguffinman 5y ago
I don't see the misunderstanding. Most of what you quoted is irrelevant, he said two key sentences: "And so actually, when you think about it, in order to solve full self-driving, we have to solve neural nets and cameras to a degree of a capability that is on par with, and will really exceeds humans. And I think we will achieve that this year." The meaning seems pretty clear. He says they will achieve "that", "that" being "solve full self-driving" and "solve ... on par with, and will really exceed humans" from the directly preceding sentence, which can only be either Level 4 or 5. Where is the misunderstanding?
- judge2020 5y ago
  The real way to achieve level 4, in the Tesla software, is to improve its decision making AI. You'll pretty much never spot the neural network not detect something in all of the public FSD videos, at least when it's important to the operational safety of the car (the objects on the screen don't always match up with the NN since they likely have an renderable object budget). Where it always, always fails is in deciding "is is safe to turn right now" or "can i pull into the center of the divided highway for my unprotected left yet".
- simondotau 5y ago
  I disagree that most of it is irrelevant. I think they are critical to understanding his point. Why are you so desperate to cherry pick? This isn’t Twitter, there’s no 240 character limit on replies.
  - themacguffinman 5y ago
    It's hard not to notice that you still haven't explained where the misunderstanding is or even what you think is his point. I'm still curious how you think it's a misunderstanding, I already know you disagree. I'd be more impressed with your Twitter comeback if your own reply wasn't a <240 character non-explanation.
  - clouddrover 5y ago
    He isn't making any point. The only thing to understand is that Musk is merely continuing his track record of lying about where Tesla is at with its supposed "full self-driving". He's been lying about it for nine years: https://jalopnik.com/elon-musk-promises-full-self-driving-next-year-for-th-1848432496 https://jalopnik.com/elon-musk-promises-full-self-driving-ne... Five years ago Tesla claimed all its cars "have the hardware needed for full self-driving capability at a safety level substantially greater than that of a human driver". That was a lie too: https://www.tesla.com/blog/all-tesla-cars-being-produced-now-have-full-self-driving-hardware https://www.tesla.com/blog/all-tesla-cars-being-produced-now... Whatever happened to those 1 million robotaxis that were supposed to be on the road by 2020? Yet another lie: https://www.thedrive.com/news/38129/elon-musk-promised-1-million-tesla-robotaxis-by-the-end-of-2020-where-are-they https://www.thedrive.com/news/38129/elon-musk-promised-1-mil...

themacguffinman 5y ago

I don't see the misunderstanding. Most of what you quoted is irrelevant, he said two key sentences: "And so actually, when you think about it, in order to solve full self-driving, we have to solve neural nets and cameras to a degree of a capability that is on par with, and will really exceeds humans. And I think we will achieve that this year." The meaning seems pretty clear. He says they will achieve "that", "that" being "solve full self-driving" and "solve ... on par with, and will really exceed humans" from the directly preceding sentence, which can only be either Level 4 or 5. Where is the misunderstanding?

judge2020 5y ago
The real way to achieve level 4, in the Tesla software, is to improve its decision making AI. You'll pretty much never spot the neural network not detect something in all of the public FSD videos, at least when it's important to the operational safety of the car (the objects on the screen don't always match up with the NN since they likely have an renderable object budget). Where it always, always fails is in deciding "is is safe to turn right now" or "can i pull into the center of the divided highway for my unprotected left yet".
simondotau 5y ago
I disagree that most of it is irrelevant. I think they are critical to understanding his point. Why are you so desperate to cherry pick? This isn’t Twitter, there’s no 240 character limit on replies.
- themacguffinman 5y ago
  It's hard not to notice that you still haven't explained where the misunderstanding is or even what you think is his point. I'm still curious how you think it's a misunderstanding, I already know you disagree. I'd be more impressed with your Twitter comeback if your own reply wasn't a <240 character non-explanation.
- clouddrover 5y ago
  He isn't making any point. The only thing to understand is that Musk is merely continuing his track record of lying about where Tesla is at with its supposed "full self-driving". He's been lying about it for nine years: https://jalopnik.com/elon-musk-promises-full-self-driving-next-year-for-th-1848432496 https://jalopnik.com/elon-musk-promises-full-self-driving-ne... Five years ago Tesla claimed all its cars "have the hardware needed for full self-driving capability at a safety level substantially greater than that of a human driver". That was a lie too: https://www.tesla.com/blog/all-tesla-cars-being-produced-now-have-full-self-driving-hardware https://www.tesla.com/blog/all-tesla-cars-being-produced-now... Whatever happened to those 1 million robotaxis that were supposed to be on the road by 2020? Yet another lie: https://www.thedrive.com/news/38129/elon-musk-promised-1-million-tesla-robotaxis-by-the-end-of-2020-where-are-they https://www.thedrive.com/news/38129/elon-musk-promised-1-mil...