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The real reason why we're going to get higher rates is that we're now seeing broader wage growth and unionization. And that's the point where inflation will be
by lamontcg 5y ago
The real reason why we're going to get higher rates is that we're now seeing broader wage growth and unionization.
And that's the point where inflation will be stopped by policymakers.
The asset bubbles that have been blown up were of no real concern because that makes the rich get richer, and is indeed regressive.
Now that it looks like wage inflation for the average joe might happen (which is not regressive at all), it suddenly has to be stopped at all cost.
But ultimately this will trigger an extraordinarily painful recession/depression in order to accomplish it.
There's two ways out of this. One would be to tolerate wage inflation until it caught up with asset price inflation, with rates rising naturally as investor expectations for inflation increased, this would actually produce more stable long term higher interest rates. The other way is for the fed to jack up rates until the economy goes into a recession, throwing a massive number of people out of work and destroying retirement savings for the rest of the bulk of the population and then having asset prices readjust downwards (which must eventually happen). But that latter path won't result in high long term rates since the bond markets will price in the coming recession and that the fed will once again drop rates to zero in the depression (and ultimately we have to eventually hit the "pushing on a string" condition where fed can't even reflate asset bubbles by ZIRP).
The very fact that everyone in the managerial class is so terrified of the current inflationary environment is why everyone should be more concerned with the fed slamming on the brakes and the coming disinflationary depression.