4 ms·

If tesla still has issues with self-driving cars and they are like a decade if not more ahead of everyone else. I dont believe this PR stunt.

by pojzon 4y ago

qeternity 4y ago
Wow. Or Tesla are the real masters of the PR stunt, and are not a decade ahead of everyone. EDIT I watched this comment drop from 15 pts to 5 pts. The Elon apologists are out in full force.
- Dave_Rosenthal 4y ago
  I believe that Tesla is ahead in the self-driving industry from an overall technology perspective. What they have failed to do, however, is to tackle the problem of when and how much the user can actually trust their system. This leaves users to struggle to build their own mental models of the same ("Oh, it likes this road", "I don't trust it at high speeds", etc.) This is terrible UX. Mercedes seems to be stepping up to the plate to actually take a stab at this problem. Inevitably the answers to these questions are not super impressive compared to Tesla's 'hey, it might work in any situation, you never know' approach. But I suspect users will really like it, even though the underlying tech is likely far behind Tesla's.
  - qeternity 4y ago
    > I believe that Tesla is ahead in the self-driving industry from an overall technology perspective. What info could you possibly have access to that would give you remotely enough confidence to assess this? I’m not saying you’re wrong, I’m just saying I doubt you have the info to claim this.
    - Dave_Rosenthal 4y ago
      Reasonable. It's an 'I believe' claim based not an 'based on these facts' claim. But, I am more informed that most as I spent five years in the industry leading all algorithm/ML development for autonomous systems at Apple. (Who I am leaving out of this analysis BTW :)
      - qeternity 4y ago
        So what are you believing if it’s not based on facts? Also you surely can understand that your work on AS at Apple has no bearing on what Tesla is doing, correct? Am I missing something here?
        pojzon 4y ago
        Self-driving car is not only radar and good model. Tesla has their own battery factories, own mines, own delivery chain, years of experience of actual real world traffic data from all around the world. You have to look at volume, Tesla soon will be producing millions of electric cars per year. They already won the market. It will take years for competition to catch up. If ppl want to gamble with their money and buy a car that never hit a real world traffic -> let them do it, but every other manufacturer is going to have to go through the same painful process as Tesla already did. Not even mentioning that no other company beside maybe Toyota has any real experience with electric cars.
        qeternity 4y ago
        What on earth does level 5 autonomy have to do with EVs? Literally nothing above has any relation to autonomy.
        pojzon 4y ago
        It means that competition has ALOT of things to focus on to even be on pair. Tesla on the other hand has to only focus on one thing now.. And none of those companies reached lv5. So my bet would be on company that has the best focus.
        Dave_Rosenthal 4y ago
        Working as an eng leader for five years in the industry gave me a considerable base of factual knowledge about the state of the industry even beyond my own company. I was just summing up my knowledge with an (I thought innocuous) 'I believe' statement. Sounds like you believe otherwise. That's cool with me, and I don't doubt you have good reasons way :)
wollsmoth 4y ago
Maybe LIDAR is more useful than Tesla thought.
- simondotau 4y ago
  What mistakes is FSD beta currently making that would be solved with more accurate localisation of the vehicle? Are you aware of any situations where mistakes are being made as a result of errors in depth estimation? Seriously, look at any FSD beta video and you’ll quickly recognise that its ability to sense the road is mature and robust; most errors are in the planner.
smileysteve 4y ago
> they are like a decade if not more ahead of everyone else. Mercedes has been investing radar since the Tesla Roadster. They are ahead of Tesla when for European regulation.
martin8412 4y ago
Tesla and Elon Musk are lying through their teeth every option they get. They can't even detect stationary emergency vehicles ffs.. Mercedes is accepting liability whenever their self driving system is engaged, meaning their insurance is on the hook. So I think they're pretty damn certain that it will work as intended.
- 01100011 4y ago
  In my uninformed estimation, I think Elon, like a lot of us 7-8 years ago, saw the recent advances in deep learning and figured they'd be capable of anything in a few years. You just need to scale them up and train the shit out of them and out pops self driving. Some of us have since repented but Tesla made too many promises so they've got to keep pushing that narrative or they become just another car company.
jjtheblunt 4y ago
or tesla made a bad engineering decision that stalled progress?
chucknthem 4y ago
Tesla owner here, have friends that work at Cruise. Tesla is waaayy behind cruise and waymo on the self driving front. Those other companies actually have fully driverless cars driving around San Francisco. Tesla is not even close. I think GM will have the best self driving system if they manage to commercialize the tech cruise built.
- B1FF_PSUVM 4y ago
  "If", as the Spartans famously said to Big Alex's dad. Ah, well, let's hope GM manages to comercialize the stuff. (The Spartans were undefeated, but became irrelevant and dwindled, just a past legend for others to wave around as political advertising. Sic transit ...)
freeflight 4y ago
> I dont believe this PR stunt. PR stunts usually don't come with official regulatory approval, tho they commonly come with grand promises [0] and the actual product not living up to them [1] [0] https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-53418069 https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-53418069 [1] https://www.vice.com/en/article/3aqevk/the-government-is-finally-catching-up-with-teslas-wild-autopilot-claims https://www.vice.com/en/article/3aqevk/the-government-is-fin...
myko 4y ago
Tesla seems way behind companies like Waymo It's all marketing hype, I say this as a Model S owner with FSD

If tesla still has issues with self-driving cars and they are like a decade if not more ahead of everyone else. I dont believe this PR stunt.

by pojzon 4y ago

If tesla still has issues with self-driving cars and they are like a decade if not more ahead of everyone else. I dont believe this PR stunt.

qeternity 4y ago

Wow. Or Tesla are the real masters of the PR stunt, and are not a decade ahead of everyone. EDIT I watched this comment drop from 15 pts to 5 pts. The Elon apologists are out in full force.

Dave_Rosenthal 4y ago
I believe that Tesla is ahead in the self-driving industry from an overall technology perspective. What they have failed to do, however, is to tackle the problem of when and how much the user can actually trust their system. This leaves users to struggle to build their own mental models of the same ("Oh, it likes this road", "I don't trust it at high speeds", etc.) This is terrible UX. Mercedes seems to be stepping up to the plate to actually take a stab at this problem. Inevitably the answers to these questions are not super impressive compared to Tesla's 'hey, it might work in any situation, you never know' approach. But I suspect users will really like it, even though the underlying tech is likely far behind Tesla's.
- qeternity 4y ago
  > I believe that Tesla is ahead in the self-driving industry from an overall technology perspective. What info could you possibly have access to that would give you remotely enough confidence to assess this? I’m not saying you’re wrong, I’m just saying I doubt you have the info to claim this.
  - Dave_Rosenthal 4y ago
    Reasonable. It's an 'I believe' claim based not an 'based on these facts' claim. But, I am more informed that most as I spent five years in the industry leading all algorithm/ML development for autonomous systems at Apple. (Who I am leaving out of this analysis BTW :)
    - qeternity 4y ago
      So what are you believing if it’s not based on facts? Also you surely can understand that your work on AS at Apple has no bearing on what Tesla is doing, correct? Am I missing something here?
      - pojzon 4y ago
        Self-driving car is not only radar and good model. Tesla has their own battery factories, own mines, own delivery chain, years of experience of actual real world traffic data from all around the world. You have to look at volume, Tesla soon will be producing millions of electric cars per year. They already won the market. It will take years for competition to catch up. If ppl want to gamble with their money and buy a car that never hit a real world traffic -> let them do it, but every other manufacturer is going to have to go through the same painful process as Tesla already did. Not even mentioning that no other company beside maybe Toyota has any real experience with electric cars.
        qeternity 4y ago
        What on earth does level 5 autonomy have to do with EVs? Literally nothing above has any relation to autonomy.
        pojzon 4y ago
        It means that competition has ALOT of things to focus on to even be on pair. Tesla on the other hand has to only focus on one thing now.. And none of those companies reached lv5. So my bet would be on company that has the best focus.
      - Dave_Rosenthal 4y ago
        Working as an eng leader for five years in the industry gave me a considerable base of factual knowledge about the state of the industry even beyond my own company. I was just summing up my knowledge with an (I thought innocuous) 'I believe' statement. Sounds like you believe otherwise. That's cool with me, and I don't doubt you have good reasons way :)

wollsmoth 4y ago

Maybe LIDAR is more useful than Tesla thought.

simondotau 4y ago
What mistakes is FSD beta currently making that would be solved with more accurate localisation of the vehicle? Are you aware of any situations where mistakes are being made as a result of errors in depth estimation? Seriously, look at any FSD beta video and you’ll quickly recognise that its ability to sense the road is mature and robust; most errors are in the planner.

smileysteve 4y ago

> they are like a decade if not more ahead of everyone else. Mercedes has been investing radar since the Tesla Roadster. They are ahead of Tesla when for European regulation.

martin8412 4y ago

Tesla and Elon Musk are lying through their teeth every option they get. They can't even detect stationary emergency vehicles ffs.. Mercedes is accepting liability whenever their self driving system is engaged, meaning their insurance is on the hook. So I think they're pretty damn certain that it will work as intended.

01100011 4y ago
In my uninformed estimation, I think Elon, like a lot of us 7-8 years ago, saw the recent advances in deep learning and figured they'd be capable of anything in a few years. You just need to scale them up and train the shit out of them and out pops self driving. Some of us have since repented but Tesla made too many promises so they've got to keep pushing that narrative or they become just another car company.

jjtheblunt 4y ago

or tesla made a bad engineering decision that stalled progress?

chucknthem 4y ago

Tesla owner here, have friends that work at Cruise. Tesla is waaayy behind cruise and waymo on the self driving front. Those other companies actually have fully driverless cars driving around San Francisco. Tesla is not even close. I think GM will have the best self driving system if they manage to commercialize the tech cruise built.

B1FF_PSUVM 4y ago
"If", as the Spartans famously said to Big Alex's dad. Ah, well, let's hope GM manages to comercialize the stuff. (The Spartans were undefeated, but became irrelevant and dwindled, just a past legend for others to wave around as political advertising. Sic transit ...)

freeflight 4y ago

> I dont believe this PR stunt. PR stunts usually don't come with official regulatory approval, tho they commonly come with grand promises [0] and the actual product not living up to them [1] [0] https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-53418069 https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-53418069 [1] https://www.vice.com/en/article/3aqevk/the-government-is-finally-catching-up-with-teslas-wild-autopilot-claims https://www.vice.com/en/article/3aqevk/the-government-is-fin...

myko 4y ago

Tesla seems way behind companies like Waymo It's all marketing hype, I say this as a Model S owner with FSD