6 ms·

That claim is more absurd than those you mock.

by Jenk 4y ago

datalopers 4y ago
This tech bubble already popped a leak (Nov 2021) and is deflating rapidly. There’s enough runway to last another year or two. Down-rounds and lay-offs are coming fast. Companies with ample cash will be fine, of course, but all these spurious startups with egregious VC funding, overpaid Pulumi and Kubernetes and <insert all the other unnecessary tech> engineers will soon be out of work and unable to find similar employment comp. People who get shit done and can run lean profit driven businesses will continue to survive just fine.
- mardifoufs 4y ago
  We've been hearing the same exact thing since at least 2013. I remember when 2015 was going to be the next huge tech crash, but nothing happened.
  - baq 4y ago
    stop listening to cnbc, start looking at the numbers. shit's gone really bad really fast and it's only starting. first signs of weakness in LQD, HYG and JNK have been there since december and it's been straight down from there. stay aware.
  - datalopers 4y ago
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble > Low interest rates in 1998–99 facilitated an increase in start-up companies > In 2000, the dot-com bubble burst, and many dot-com startups went out of business after burning through their venture capital and failing to become profitable. Sound familiar? It should, because history rhymes.
    - Jenk 4y ago
      What is utterly absurd is not the claim that capitalism has boom or bust, but that IAC is in any way related.
      - deleted 4y ago
        [deleted]
    - bogomipz 4y ago
      How exactly does a Wikipedia entry for the 1999 dot com crash support your assertion that that a market crash is imminent? How is that any different than make posting a Wikipedia link for World War II as supporting evidence that World War 3 is imminent? At any rate it does not sound familiar. Nor does it look familiar. The world in 2022 looks very different compared to the world at the end of the last century. People have seemingly predicted 20 of the last 1 tech bubbles. The "Dot Com Bust 2.0" headline is practically a meme at this point. I feel like it's something lazy journalists do on slow news days. Here's a brief sampling from the last 8 years. From 2014 - "In Some Ways, It’s Looking Like 1999 in the Stock Market"[1] From 2016 - "This Tech Bubble Is Bursting"[2] From 2018 - "Silicon Valley tech bubble is larger than it was in 2000, and the end is coming" [3] From 2020 - "6 Reasons This Tech Bubble Is Bursting"[4] Ad infinitum. [1] https://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/30/business/in-some-ways-its-looking-like-1999-in-the-stock-market.html https://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/30/business/in-some-ways-its... [2] https://www.wsj.com/articles/this-tech-bubble-is-bursting-1462161662 https://www.wsj.com/articles/this-tech-bubble-is-bursting-14... [3] https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/22/tech-bubble-is-larger-than-in-2000-and-the-end-is-coming.html https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/22/tech-bubble-is-larger-than-i... [4] https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/09/10/6-reasons-this-tech-bubble-is-bursting/ https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/09/10/6-reasons-this-tec...
  - outworlder 4y ago
    Market something irrational something solvent
- outworlder 4y ago
  I was going to complain about conflating the market with the economy, but the more I wrote, the more I started to agree with you. Companies relying on crazy market valuations will pop just like they always did. Companies with sufficient revenue OR cash should continue. Kubernetes is fine and it's not _unnecessary_. It's absolutely crucial to many companies and having this tech available has solved many problems. It creates other problems, of course. People like to complain about Kubernetes, but my viewpoint is that microservices is the unnecessary tech here. Sure, some stacks may benefit, but I'm willing to wager that most companies are not doing microservices, they are actually creating distributed monoliths just to be able to ship their org chart. And, in the process, adding all sorts of technologies that shouldn't be necessary.
  - datalopers 4y ago
    Yep. The freedom of choice created by microservices and developer tendency to play with everything under the sun and immediately rewrite tooling into it. Now you have people writing node alongside python alongside haskell alongside rust in the same org all talking to eachother via really inefficient http calls. It’s not just that of course. It’s the entire web toolchain and build pipelines, SPAs, react, node/npm, that entire community reinventing “SSR” and caching. It’s the “modern data platform” movement where people stop using databases and slap everything into python and 10 layers of ETL and job queues and dags all so it loads into a cloud data platform with a separation of storage and compute at the end. It’s all a bunch of crap is my issue and why I call it a bubble. Nobody is solving actual business problems. They’re just creating tooling and then new companies to make that tooling less insufferable. As one tiny example, how much of say Datadog’s revenue is coming from overfunded VC companies who have never considered cost or utility. Those logs should have been sent to /dev/null in the first place is usually the answer.
    - phillipcarter 4y ago
      I don't suspect you'd change your mind, but I disagree with this statement: > Nobody is solving actual business problems. I think most people are solving business problems and that you're (perhaps justifiably) jaded on the tech side of it.
- tyrfing 4y ago
  Yup, the clock is ticking and a lot of people haven't realized yet. The circular economy of VC-funded startups selling things to other startups will be some of the worst hit... Not sure about Pulumi, looks like they only have a series B 1.5 years ago. Either they have a very short runway at this point or found some real ARR.

That claim is more absurd than those you mock.

by Jenk 4y ago

That claim is more absurd than those you mock.

This tech bubble already popped a leak (Nov 2021) and is deflating rapidly. There’s enough runway to last another year or two. Down-rounds and lay-offs are coming fast. Companies with ample cash will be fine, of course, but all these spurious startups with egregious VC funding, overpaid Pulumi and Kubernetes and <insert all the other unnecessary tech> engineers will soon be out of work and unable to find similar employment comp. People who get shit done and can run lean profit driven businesses will continue to survive just fine.

mardifoufs 4y ago
We've been hearing the same exact thing since at least 2013. I remember when 2015 was going to be the next huge tech crash, but nothing happened.
- baq 4y ago
  stop listening to cnbc, start looking at the numbers. shit's gone really bad really fast and it's only starting. first signs of weakness in LQD, HYG and JNK have been there since december and it's been straight down from there. stay aware.
- datalopers 4y ago
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble > Low interest rates in 1998–99 facilitated an increase in start-up companies > In 2000, the dot-com bubble burst, and many dot-com startups went out of business after burning through their venture capital and failing to become profitable. Sound familiar? It should, because history rhymes.
  - Jenk 4y ago
    What is utterly absurd is not the claim that capitalism has boom or bust, but that IAC is in any way related.
    - deleted 4y ago
      [deleted]
  - bogomipz 4y ago
    How exactly does a Wikipedia entry for the 1999 dot com crash support your assertion that that a market crash is imminent? How is that any different than make posting a Wikipedia link for World War II as supporting evidence that World War 3 is imminent? At any rate it does not sound familiar. Nor does it look familiar. The world in 2022 looks very different compared to the world at the end of the last century. People have seemingly predicted 20 of the last 1 tech bubbles. The "Dot Com Bust 2.0" headline is practically a meme at this point. I feel like it's something lazy journalists do on slow news days. Here's a brief sampling from the last 8 years. From 2014 - "In Some Ways, It’s Looking Like 1999 in the Stock Market"[1] From 2016 - "This Tech Bubble Is Bursting"[2] From 2018 - "Silicon Valley tech bubble is larger than it was in 2000, and the end is coming" [3] From 2020 - "6 Reasons This Tech Bubble Is Bursting"[4] Ad infinitum. [1] https://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/30/business/in-some-ways-its-looking-like-1999-in-the-stock-market.html https://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/30/business/in-some-ways-its... [2] https://www.wsj.com/articles/this-tech-bubble-is-bursting-1462161662 https://www.wsj.com/articles/this-tech-bubble-is-bursting-14... [3] https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/22/tech-bubble-is-larger-than-in-2000-and-the-end-is-coming.html https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/22/tech-bubble-is-larger-than-i... [4] https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/09/10/6-reasons-this-tech-bubble-is-bursting/ https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/09/10/6-reasons-this-tec...
- outworlder 4y ago
  Market something irrational something solvent
outworlder 4y ago
I was going to complain about conflating the market with the economy, but the more I wrote, the more I started to agree with you. Companies relying on crazy market valuations will pop just like they always did. Companies with sufficient revenue OR cash should continue. Kubernetes is fine and it's not _unnecessary_. It's absolutely crucial to many companies and having this tech available has solved many problems. It creates other problems, of course. People like to complain about Kubernetes, but my viewpoint is that microservices is the unnecessary tech here. Sure, some stacks may benefit, but I'm willing to wager that most companies are not doing microservices, they are actually creating distributed monoliths just to be able to ship their org chart. And, in the process, adding all sorts of technologies that shouldn't be necessary.
- datalopers 4y ago
  Yep. The freedom of choice created by microservices and developer tendency to play with everything under the sun and immediately rewrite tooling into it. Now you have people writing node alongside python alongside haskell alongside rust in the same org all talking to eachother via really inefficient http calls. It’s not just that of course. It’s the entire web toolchain and build pipelines, SPAs, react, node/npm, that entire community reinventing “SSR” and caching. It’s the “modern data platform” movement where people stop using databases and slap everything into python and 10 layers of ETL and job queues and dags all so it loads into a cloud data platform with a separation of storage and compute at the end. It’s all a bunch of crap is my issue and why I call it a bubble. Nobody is solving actual business problems. They’re just creating tooling and then new companies to make that tooling less insufferable. As one tiny example, how much of say Datadog’s revenue is coming from overfunded VC companies who have never considered cost or utility. Those logs should have been sent to /dev/null in the first place is usually the answer.
  - phillipcarter 4y ago
    I don't suspect you'd change your mind, but I disagree with this statement: > Nobody is solving actual business problems. I think most people are solving business problems and that you're (perhaps justifiably) jaded on the tech side of it.
tyrfing 4y ago
Yup, the clock is ticking and a lot of people haven't realized yet. The circular economy of VC-funded startups selling things to other startups will be some of the worst hit... Not sure about Pulumi, looks like they only have a series B 1.5 years ago. Either they have a very short runway at this point or found some real ARR.