3 ms·
US population is effectively flat over the past two years. Home construction is at an all time high. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNDCONTSA https://fred.
by adam_arthur 5y ago
US population is effectively flat over the past two years. Home construction is at an all time high.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNDCONTSA https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNDCONTSA
People keep repeating these statements about underbuilding or lack of supply as if they're backed by data, but it's just he said she said. Number of housing units to households is the same as it was in the year 2000, and in line with historical levels.
Home price gains were driven by a low rate induced speculative frenzy. It's inflationary psychology at work. E.g. people spin narratives about why you need to buy now to avoid being priced out, thus everybody starts to panic buy making the prophecy self fulfilling in the end.
But this never ends well. At the root of every bubble is some collective narrative that "justifies" its existence
- pj_mukh 5y agoHigh construction in Idaho does nothing for housing in New York. National construction rate averages are pointless. Gotta break it down by geography and locations of (in-person) jobs.
- adam_arthur 5y agoHousing is fungible in a remote work world. So construction in cheaper locales can help reduce costs in HCOL areas. E.g. people migrate from CA to FL, reduces number of households in CA. Not for local jobs of course But anyway, beyond fungibility, demographic trend is towards population decline. Spread between population growth and rate of new home construction is at an all time high. And even CA recently passed a law allowing densification on certain SFH plots
- pj_mukh 5y agoAs long as going to the same bar as your boss during happy hour leads to a promotion, career progression + economic opportunity will be tied to geography. Barely any companies operate like Gitlab does. Demographic decline is a much bigger problem to solve, not something that should stop us from taking action.
- mrep 5y agoMy director who according to levels.fyi makes 1 million dollars a year is fully remote. If that's the remote ceiling, than I am A ok with it.
- pj_mukh 5y agoIf that was a replicable strategy, that would be amazing. The averages say otherwise and I would bet continue to do so if we check-in, in a decade.